About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Oct 28
For the week ended Oct 21, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 269.3 0.0 12607.1 16159.9 4049.9 0.0
hrw 145.9 0.0 4954.1 5918.3 1743.8 0.0
srw 7.4 0.0 1854.1 1300.1 572.7 0.0
hrs 42.3 0.0 3379.9 4561.7 998.2 0.0
white 27.7 0.0 2269.3 3840.4 662.7 0.0
durum 45.9 0.0 149.7 539.4 72.4 0.0
corn 890.4 0.0 29784.6 30578.3 24639.7 337.4
soybeans 1183.4 0.0 30451.5 46901.3 22209.2 19.8
soymeal 161.5 0.5 4456.2 4140.5 3754.4 37.1
soyoil 14.6 0.0 122.6 221.2 111.7 0.1
upland cotton 360.8 20.0 8369.7 8749.7 6453.1 836.3
pima cotton 8.5 0.0 267.6 410.5 191.0 0.0
sorghum 133.0 0.0 2751.8 3276.8 2486.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.1 42.0 22.9 0.0
rice 25.2 0.0 1077.9 1201.0 466.0 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher yesterday and trends are still up in all three markets. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others. Speculators keep talking about inflation and are buying commodities for an inflation trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 770 and 781 December. Support is at 744, 736, and 729 December, with resistance at 767, 769, and 7876 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 787 December. Support is at 767, 764, and 761 December, with resistance at 790, 794, and 7800 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1008, 994, and 980 December, and resistance is at 1032, 1047, and 1050 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher in recovery trading but held to the trading range of the previous day. Short term down trends are on the charts but the chart show limited potential for more selling to be effective and ideas are that a bottom could come with the current test of support. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in all states. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi although there have been some milling problems as milling yields have been generally low.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 1292 November. Support is at 1326, 1320, and 1308 November, with resistance at 1340, 1347, and 1360 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher again yesterday. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong weekly export sales and strong ethanol demand. Trends are up on the daily charts for both markets. Traders keep talking about new demand for the market from exporters and noted that the demand for ethanol production was very strong. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Farmers are reported to be limited sellers at best. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. The Oats market knows that supplies will continue to be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.106 million barrels per day last week, from 1.096 million the previous week and 941,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol production used 110.2 million bushels of Corn, from 109.2 million the previous week and 98.3 million the previous year. Ethanol stocks are now 19.9 million barrels, from 20.1 million the previous week and 19.6 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 564 December. Support is at 548, 540, and 529 December, and resistance is at 566, 578, and 582 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 731 and 792 December. Support is at 686, 670, and 649 December, and resistance is at 720, 726, and 732 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher yesterday but the products were mixed, with Soybean Oil lower and Soybean Meal higher. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive. There was one new sales announcement to China this week. Mexico also bought US Soybeans. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina and panting could be slower there when the time comes.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1227, 1216, and 1208 November, and resistance is at 1249, 1258, and 1267 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 December. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 314.00 December, and resistance is at 334.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 6050 and 5900 December. Support is at 6060, 5920, and 5850 December, with resistance at 6200, 6360, and 6400 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday and today along with Chicago Soybean Oil as supply concerns continue even with slow exports as reported by the private services. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher once again yesterday on bad production ideas. November was the leader to the upside as processors and other industry take protection in futures. Trends are up on the daily charts. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are turning back up. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 1021 November. Support is at 953.00, 942.00, and 929.00 November, with resistance at 984.00, 990.00, and 996.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4930, 4820, and 4740 January, with resistance at 5070, 5090, and 5220 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rain from west to east over the weekend and into the first part of next week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 27
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 974.60 13.20 Nov. 2021 up 11.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 995.60 35.00 Nov. 2021 up 6.00
Basis: Vancouver 1025.60 65.00 Nov. 2021 up 6.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 183,934 lots, or 11.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,146 6,172 6,110 6,127 6,143 6,135 -8 6,904 7,562
Jan-22 6,167 6,198 6,118 6,143 6,160 6,153 -7 133,393 111,930
Mar-22 6,210 6,212 6,135 6,164 6,175 6,170 -5 34,524 64,752
May-22 6,133 6,163 6,097 6,125 6,128 6,125 -3 3,072 5,899
Jul-22 6,093 6,114 6,050 6,073 6,082 6,077 -5 5,991 8,573
Sep-22 6,008 6,008 5,968 5,990 5,959 5,980 21 50 93
Corn
Turnover: 1,179,345 lots, or 30.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,600 2,600 2,555 2,557 2,592 2,572 -20 7,639 37,707
Jan-22 2,609 2,611 2,565 2,587 2,611 2,590 -21 820,926 701,823
Mar-22 2,618 2,624 2,570 2,593 2,622 2,596 -26 222,949 213,499
May-22 2,650 2,657 2,615 2,637 2,652 2,636 -16 86,496 137,294
Jul-22 2,656 2,670 2,629 2,648 2,663 2,652 -11 39,089 59,675
Sep-22 2,673 2,680 2,640 2,658 2,674 2,661 -13 2,246 5,067
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,453,455 lots, or 4.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,529 3,532 3,357 3,366 3,543 3,492 -51 3,812 6,848
Dec-21 3,429 3,456 3,383 3,409 3,426 3,422 -4 77,849 65,265
Jan-22 3,250 3,279 3,234 3,259 3,249 3,257 8 896,423 1,167,928
Mar-22 3,066 3,093 3,052 3,080 3,072 3,078 6 89,523 303,710
May-22 3,025 3,062 3,019 3,055 3,025 3,046 21 304,681 724,236
Jul-22 3,031 3,062 3,024 3,053 3,031 3,047 16 54,772 108,941
Aug-22 3,101 3,131 3,096 3,124 3,100 3,119 19 14,860 43,865
Sep-22 3,108 3,131 3,095 3,122 3,099 3,120 21 11,535 37,723
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,521,592 lots, or 14.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 10,420 10,420 9,800 10,038 10,162 10,392 230 1,133 1,997
Dec-21 9,860 9,912 9,524 9,742 9,922 9,712 -210 28,322 29,232
Jan-22 9,574 9,580 9,256 9,442 9,632 9,440 -192 1,312,414 338,165
Feb-22 9,368 9,368 9,056 9,230 9,440 9,230 -210 54,890 79,334
Mar-22 9,150 9,158 8,856 9,030 9,236 9,026 -210 28,045 37,632
Apr-22 8,926 8,926 8,626 8,802 9,008 8,780 -228 11,358 22,783
May-22 8,748 8,748 8,428 8,592 8,816 8,594 -222 84,925 58,178
Jun-22 8,466 8,546 8,464 8,506 8,750 8,494 -256 4 544
Jul-22 8,564 8,566 8,268 8,410 8,656 8,446 -210 9 1,225
Aug-22 8,368 8,368 8,128 8,250 8,460 8,200 -260 47 3,182
Sep-22 8,300 8,300 8,002 8,106 8,376 8,126 -250 431 443
Oct-22 8,156 8,158 7,886 8,016 8,300 8,038 -262 14 9
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,292,551 lots, or 12.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 10,318 10,318 9,960 10,028 10,318 10,182 -136 908 1,599
Dec-21 10,092 10,122 9,860 10,022 10,148 10,020 -128 10,754 34,756
Jan-22 9,880 9,890 9,610 9,772 9,940 9,764 -176 1,078,283 404,641
Mar-22 9,472 9,474 9,188 9,352 9,552 9,336 -216 35,973 99,330
May-22 9,116 9,144 8,838 8,994 9,218 8,996 -222 125,120 148,366
Jul-22 8,880 8,928 8,636 8,780 9,018 8,796 -222 26,886 57,331
Aug-22 8,884 8,884 8,608 8,746 8,986 8,746 -240 14,119 21,558
Sep-22 8,820 8,820 8,512 8,660 8,898 8,682 -216 508 1,469
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322