About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little higher after another day of choppy trading. Ideas of weakening demand due to weaker world economies hurt the futures market but demand has been very good in the world market. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. Analysts say the Asian demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 105.53 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 26,021 bales, from 26,021 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10590, 10530, and 10350 December, with resistance of 11130, 11290 and 11390 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower but chart trends are still starting to turn up but are still holding to the sideways pattern. Reports indicate that the selling came from speculators. The hurricane season is just about over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost nothing. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 118.00, and 116.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as the lack of Coffee available to deliver against Robusta contracts became a factor. Some major storms are likely to hit Vietnamese Coffee areas through the end of this week. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. Trends are mixed in New York but are up in London. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures and for now especially the futures market in London. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and flowering is being reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are being reported in Vietnam from a tropical system. No big winds are expected so the Coffee should not fall from the trees that much. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.889 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 187.04 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 204.00, 201.00, and 197.00 December, and resistance is at 215.00, 218.00 and 224.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2360 November. Support is at 2240, 2180, and 2150 November, and resistance is at 2360, 2390, and 2420 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as the market tries to hold at current trading levels. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. UBICA showed less overall Sugarcane processing and much less Sugar production for the two week period. Processors are refining the cane for Ethanol more than Sugar right now and Unica expects this trend to continue. New York was the weaker market on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. The reduced production potential from Brazil for the current harvest is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1880, and 1830 March, and resistance is at 19580, 2000, and 2040 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 505.00, 497.00, and 496.00 December, and resistance is at 515.00, 522.00, and 527.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in consolidation trading afte rallying for the previous couple of days. Trends are sideways on the daily charts. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support but ideas that demand will only improve slightly kept futures from making a strong rally attempt. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are now down 15.3% at 277,000 tons. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.350 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2730 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1700, and 1690 December, with resistance at 1770, 1820, and 1830 December

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322