About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mixed yesterday and trends are still up in all three markets. Minneapolis futures are now solidly above 10.00 per bushel and show no signs of backing down in any big way. Ideas that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas and is finally starting to improve in southern areas and into Kazakhstan in time for the next crop. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others. Speculators keep talking about inflation and are buying commodities for an inflation trade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 770 and 781 December. Support is at 744, 736, and 729 December, with resistance at 767, 769, and 7876 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 787 December. Support is at 764, 761, and 748 December, with resistance at 790, 794, and 7800 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 1008, 994, and 980 December, and resistance is at 1047, 1050, and 1056 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling. Short term down trends are on the charts but the chart show limited potential for more selling to be effective and ideas are that a bottom could come with the current test of support. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are also almost done with the harvest. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 1292 November. Support is at 1326, 1320, and 1308 November, with resistance at 1340, 1347, and 1360 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 27
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.02 9.56 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.99 9.59 0.00
Brokens 9.53 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday. Oats were higher on a lack of supply available to the market from the northern US Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies while Corn is still finding some support from strong weekly export sales and strong ethanol demand. Trends are up on the daily charts for both markets. Traders keep talking about new demand for the market from exporters and noted that the demand for ethanol production was very strong. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Initial yield reports have been mixed but good, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Farmers are reported to be limited sellers at best. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. The Oats market knows that supplies will continue to be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 552 and 564 December. Support is at 540, 529, and 523 December, and resistance is at 548, 566, and 578 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 731 and 792 December. Support is at 686, 670, and 649 December, and resistance is at 720, 726, and 732 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher yesterday but the products were mixed, sith Soybean Oil lower. The export inspections report was considered positive for Soybeans prices. Ideas of strong demand from China were supportive but took a back seat to ideas of new economic and regulatory issue there. There were no new sales announcements to China last week. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are mixed. Harvest has moved past the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen during the second half of the harvest. However, the low will probably not be as low as the previous low seen a few weeks ago. Reports indicate that farmers are limited sellers at best. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and export sales and exports are increasing. Planting and initial crop development is going very well in Brazil. It has been dry in Argentina and panting could be slower there when the time comes.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 125,730 tons of US Soybeans and China bought 199,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1230, 1216, and 1208 November, and resistance is at 1249, 1258, and 1267 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 330.00 and 341.00 December. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 314.00 December, and resistance is at 332.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6200, 6120, and 6060 December, with resistance at 6360, 6400, and 6500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on supply concerns even with slow exports as reported by the private services. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. It has also reduced import taxes now for Soybean Oil and Canola Oil and this has caused some demand worries for Palm. The weekly chart trends are up. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher yesterday on bad production ideas. Trends turned up on the daily charts with the price action yesterday. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 953.00, 942.00, and 929.00 November, with resistance at 966.00, 972.00, and 978.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4940, 4820, and 4740 January, with resistance at 5090, 5220, and 5280 January.

DJ Canadian Oilseeds Monthly Crush – Oct 26
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of September 2021, reported by Statistics Canada
are as follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2021/22 2020/21
Canola Sep 2021 Sep 2020 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 778,402 785,725 1,440,370 1,616,060
Oil produced 320,564 339,884 607,859 703,308
Meal produced 458,105 449,729 840,112 914,788
Soybeans
Seed crushed 134,094 139,438 263,142 275,033
Oil produced 25,332 25,547 48,671 49,901
Meal produced 104,574 109,026 202,975 212,977
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rain from west to east over the weekend and into the first part of next week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 26
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 963.50 14.70 Nov 2021 up 18.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 989.60 35.00 Jan 2022 up 11.10
Basis: Vancouver 1,019.60 65.00 Jan 2022 up 11.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1352.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1322.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1247.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1152.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1355.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1325.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1250.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1155.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1310.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1210.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,350.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 500.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.153)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322