Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were higher as the market saw a technical bounce after a couple of hard down days. The USDA reports showed better production than anticipated but very good demand for US Cotton. Demand data was unchanged in the USDA reports Tuesday. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and much above normal temperatures but below normal temperatures this weekend. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures but below normal starting Sunday. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 103.92 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,162 bales, from 33,162 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts. 6,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 146,700 bales this year and 10,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 10750, 1020, and 9960 December, with resistance of 10860, 11030 and 11290 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Oct 14
As of Oct 8. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 35,817 39,579 -3,762 12,405 12,508 -103
Mar 22 46,283 44,515 1,768 8,700 8,173 527
May 22 17,512 16,902 610 1,482 1,442 40
Jul 22 40,114 39,098 1,016 5,038 5,004 34
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 7,971 7,698 273 8,412 8,171 241
Mar 23 1,627 1,469 158 212 142 70
May 23 125 53 72 0 0 0
Jul 23 414 89 325 0 0 0
Dec 23 1,132 1,132 0 2,816 2,732 84
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 150,995 150,535 460 39,505 38,612 893
Open Open Change
Oct 21 0 48 -48
Dec 21 129,834 140,905 -11,071
Mar 22 85,588 79,457 6,131
May 22 25,456 25,415 41
Jul 22 18,347 18,051 296
Oct 22 21 18 3
Dec 22 26,153 24,172 1,981
Mar 23 505 504 1
May 23 56 56 0
Jul 23 53 54 -1
Dec 23 1,560 1,521 39
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 287,573 290,201 -2,628
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the latter stages of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 122.00, 119.00, and 116.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and trends are still up in New York and mixed in London. Cecafe in Brazil reported smaller exports in September and this was the fundamental reason for the move. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and some flowering could occur. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.921 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 185.00 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures today, then near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 221.00 and 238.00 December. Support is at 205.00, 200.00, and 195.00 December, and resistance is at 215.00, 218.00 and 224.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2150, 2180, and 2210 November.
General Comments: New York and London were lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling that hit most commodities yesterday. Even news of smaller production from the reduced harvest in Brazil could not rally prices. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in New York but are still trying to turn up in London. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there but the tight situation now must still be dealt with.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1940, and 1920 March, and resistance is at 2000, 2040, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 507.00, 500.00, and 496.00 December, and resistance is at 520.00, 527.00, and 532.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again on what appeared to be follow through speculative selling. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year and it has been raining in Ivory Coast to promote the return of disease to the pods. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast so reduced production in both countries could mean short supplies for the world market this year. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from the previous year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.420 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2510, 2470, and 2400 December. Support is at 2560, 2520, and 2440 December, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2730 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1770 December. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1760 December, with resistance at 1850, 1890, and 1920 December.