About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 15
For the week ended Oct 8, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 567.6 0.0 11975.6 15049.3 3764.0 0.0
hrw 244.7 0.0 4601.8 5630.1 1546.4 0.0
srw 30.3 0.0 1795.8 1194.3 609.3 0.0
hrs 190.9 0.0 3275.5 4355.8 955.3 0.0
white 101.8 0.0 2180.7 3326.9 592.5 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 121.9 542.2 60.5 0.0
corn 1039.9 3.6 27621.1 26503.0 24206.3 336.9
soybeans 1147.8 0.0 26389.7 43123.9 22760.5 19.8
soymeal 365.4 0.7 4054.4 3619.2 3753.4 30.5
soyoil 19.8 0.0 105.0 178.2 104.5 0.0
upland cotton 146.7 10.6 7617.2 8233.2 5881.4 752.4
pima cotton 6.4 0.0 235.2 348.2 166.2 0.0
sorghum 2.5 0.0 2356.3 2935.2 2130.5 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.2 42.1 24.5 0.0
rice 33.9 0.0 971.3 1018.5 490.0 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 18, 2021 11 Oct 13, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in recovery trading that hit most commodities markets yesterday. USDA showed somewhat bullish Wheat data on Tuesday. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers and some big rains. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 713, 706, and 701 December, with resistance at 739, 744, and 749 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 715, 704, and 702 December, with resistance at 739, 748, and 753 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 966 and 968 December. Support is at 940, 9356, and 929 December, and resistance is at 964, 970, and 976 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher and chart trends are turning up again. USDA increased yield very slightly but cut imports by quite a bit in its latest reports released on Tuesday. USDA also cut demand but ending stocks were reduced anyway. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop is still in the field and is getting harvested now. Harvesting is about over in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are also almost done with the harvest. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1408 and 1436 November. Support is at 1377, 1365, and 1352 November, with resistance at 1401, 1408, and 1420 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher in recovery trading from the selling seen in response to the latest USDA production and supply and demand estimates. Trends turned mixed to down on the daily charts. December was also lower on ideas of solid harvest progress and ideas that farmers might be selling right off the combine. Support came from strong ethanol demand data. USDA showed a slight increase in yields and production and increased ending stocks in the reports released on Tuesday. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. There are a lot of ideas that production and planted and harvested area will be significantly less next year due to the lack of fertilizers available and the cost of production. Oats were higher in recovery trading as the market knows that supplies will be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.032 million barrels per day last week, from 978,00o barrels the previous week and 937,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol production used 102.9 million bushels of corn last week, from 97.5 million the previous week and 97.9 million in the same week last year. Marketing year estimated Corn use for the production of Ethanol is 516 million bushels, down 14 million from last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 489 and 488 December. Support is at 507, 504, and 498 December, and resistance is at 520, 523, and 530 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 626, 623, and 604 December, and resistance is at 648, 686, and 690 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little higher in recovery trading after a couple of hard down days from the latest USDA reports. The selling came in response to the USDA reports released on Tuesday and as chart patterns remain down. Speculators were the best sellers. USDA greatly increased yields and production and increased ending stocks levels on Tuesday and ideas are that further increases are coming. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans but China is on holiday this week so no sales announcements are expected. Harvest is moving to the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen about that time. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 396,000 tons of US Soybeans and China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans. USDA also said that 326,700 tons of Soybeans were received for delivery to unknown destinations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1183 and 1180 November. Support is at 1184, 1181, and 1152 November, and resistance is at 1231, 1242, and 1258 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 308.00, 305.00, and 302.00 December, and resistance is at 320.00 325.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5850, 5830, and 5700 December, with resistance at 6060, 6120, and 6220 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on rallies in rival vegetable oils futures and despite slow exports as reported by the private services. Support still comes from ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. The weekly chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher as the harvest is continuing amid good conditions in the Prairies. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 892.00, 885.00, and 874.00 November, with resistance at 925.00, 936.00, and 940.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 5950 December. Support is at 4800, 4750, and 4590 December, with resistance at 5040, 5100, and 5160 December.

DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Fell 16.1%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-15 period are estimated down 16.1% on month at 704,463 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said Friday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
October 1-15 September 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 182,385 299,560
RBD Palm Oil 50,236 55,510
RBD Palm Stearin 54,182 78,335
Crude Palm Oil 204,080 208,408
Total* 704,463 839,533
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia Oct 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 723,561 Tons, Down 11%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the October 1-15 period are estimated down 11% on month at 723,561 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Oct 1-15 Sept 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 177,075 306,415
RBD Palm Oil 44,420 40,570
RBD Palm Stearin 52,675 68,775
Crude Palm Oil 217,330 198,510
Total* 723,561 813,555
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 14
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Oct. 10, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2685.2 703.1 302.2 618.2 41.8 1489.8 388.9 30.2 7152.6
Week Ago 2609.0 573.0 308.2 589.3 34.8 1535.1 385.6 36.9 6823.1
Year Ago 2523.1 1026.9 352.8 577.5 53.2 1718.4 444.3 35.3 7784.1
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 289.1 97.1 53.7 140.6 11.4 500.4 20.2 8.7 1222.3
Week Ago 301.0 62.9 40.2 204.7 8.6 474.2 23.3 7.8 1288.6
To Date 3271.1 743.6 488.1 1477.9 44.6 3792.6 928.8 63.6 11684.7
Year Ago 4130.8 1090.7 746.9 1079.4 77.6 4644.8 1460.8 75.7 14601.9
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 190.7 74.6 7.4 204.8 0.6 219.2 32.5 0.0 1041.6
Week Ago 316.2 80.0 17.3 88.7 0.0 276.7 67.6 1.1 1036.5
To Date 3749.9 629.1 88.8 736.1 2.5 1331.4 634.4 31.0 8098.3
Year Ago 5175.5 1069.2 161.1 538.1 24.6 2535.5 951.1 15.2 11669.0
EXPORTS
This Week 205.3 73.3 57.8 134.4 0.5 268.2 10.5 0.0 885.3
Week Ago 126.1 22.1 11.4 84.1 0.9 250.4 108.1 0.0 634.4
To Date 2677.5 671.1 332.0 539.7 10.6 983.7 567.0 35.4 6256.4
Year Ago 3939.7 588.7 449.3 514.4 51.6 2287.1 960.8 10.1 9570.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 63.3 0.8 15.0 45.2 1.7 196.5 4.9 21.0 394.7
Week Ago 169.2 15.2 18.0 39.5 1.7 200.3 6.8 14.7 483.4
To Date 1003.5 47.2 152.4 320.5 10.1 1749.0 59.3 180.2 3758.2
Year Ago 1031.7 73.7 138.8 227.9 12.7 1970.0 37.9 175.0 3939.6
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north and west and scattered showers and rains in the south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 14
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Oct. 14, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 913.20 10.00 Nov 21 up 7.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 940.20 30.00 Nov 21 up 7.00
Basis: Vancouver 970.20 60.00 Nov 21 up 7.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1327.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1302.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1277.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1215.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1130.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1330.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1305.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1280.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1217.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1132.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1262.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1165.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 5,160.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 436.00 +08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.156)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 190,686 lots, or 11.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,049 6,075 5,996 6,059 6,109 6,034 -75 103,156 45,841
Jan-22 6,050 6,081 6,010 6,070 6,080 6,040 -40 65,416 82,537
Mar-22 6,044 6,077 6,011 6,064 6,055 6,037 -18 17,448 59,229
May-22 6,019 6,058 6,005 6,044 6,023 6,014 -9 1,480 4,883
Jul-22 5,965 6,010 5,955 5,999 5,976 5,973 -3 3,164 8,848
Sep-22 5,917 5,917 5,868 5,887 5,917 5,889 -28 22 38
Corn
Turnover: 951,491 lots, or 24.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,508 2,543 2,504 2,540 2,512 2,525 13 42,110 62,669
Jan-22 2,530 2,573 2,529 2,572 2,536 2,555 19 727,981 847,623
Mar-22 2,549 2,590 2,548 2,590 2,554 2,570 16 111,847 195,567
May-22 2,566 2,612 2,566 2,611 2,581 2,595 14 53,601 107,927
Jul-22 2,578 2,608 2,578 2,605 2,586 2,595 9 13,175 48,687
Sep-22 2,581 2,620 2,581 2,614 2,592 2,605 13 2,777 3,918
Soymeal
Turnover: 990,535 lots, or 31.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,562 3,599 3,548 3,574 3,529 3,569 40 21,848 31,825
Dec-21 3,432 3,444 3,409 3,432 3,370 3,428 58 47,808 90,859
Jan-22 3,266 3,279 3,248 3,263 3,233 3,260 27 650,096 1,240,163
Mar-22 3,085 3,092 3,068 3,082 3,072 3,076 4 51,757 276,048
May-22 3,037 3,041 3,015 3,039 3,029 3,028 -1 193,141 579,050
Jul-22 3,043 3,049 3,021 3,043 3,037 3,035 -2 13,364 88,257
Aug-22 3,112 3,114 3,089 3,108 3,100 3,101 1 6,327 36,822
Sep-22 3,107 3,116 3,091 3,111 3,104 3,102 -2 6,194 23,395
Palm Oil
Turnover: 800,375 lots, or 74.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-21 – – – 9,996 9,996 9,996 0 0 446
Nov-21 9,930 10,042 9,826 10,032 10,028 9,918 -110 2,497 7,443
Dec-21 9,714 9,806 9,596 9,782 9,748 9,704 -44 19,463 46,072
Jan-22 9,288 9,442 9,206 9,422 9,348 9,326 -22 690,253 391,299
Feb-22 9,034 9,210 8,962 9,198 9,068 9,068 0 26,392 67,994
Mar-22 8,866 9,020 8,784 9,016 8,866 8,890 24 16,594 29,967
Apr-22 8,686 8,854 8,626 8,834 8,692 8,726 34 9,101 20,985
May-22 8,524 8,718 8,514 8,714 8,568 8,618 50 35,328 44,393
Jun-22 – – – 8,514 8,468 8,514 46 0 543
Jul-22 8,560 8,560 8,560 8,560 8,448 8,560 112 1 473
Aug-22 8,238 8,238 8,238 8,238 8,184 8,238 54 650 2,375
Sep-22 8,150 8,276 8,134 8,274 8,132 8,192 60 96 263
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 761,482 lots, or 72.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 9,964 10,086 9,872 10,072 9,964 9,932 -32 4,089 9,881
Dec-21 9,746 9,972 9,746 9,946 9,800 9,866 66 16,776 57,319
Jan-22 9,592 9,740 9,542 9,716 9,586 9,638 52 640,937 450,512
Mar-22 9,182 9,360 9,174 9,344 9,176 9,256 80 15,957 85,287
May-22 8,952 9,142 8,952 9,126 8,974 9,054 80 59,767 122,645
Jul-22 8,802 8,970 8,794 8,950 8,794 8,878 84 18,428 45,023
Aug-22 8,794 8,926 8,752 8,904 8,758 8,832 74 5,276 18,019
Sep-22 8,754 8,878 8,700 8,858 8,712 8,776 64 252 617
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322