About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower on what was called long liquidation and perhaps some hedge selling from producers and mills. The USDA reports showed better production than anticipated but very good demand for US Cotton. Demand data was unchanged in the USDA reports yesterday. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and much above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 103.17 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,162 bales, from 35,287 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10740, 10680, and 10360 December, with resistance of 11400, 11520 and 11650 December.

Crop Progress
Date 10-Oct 3-Oct 2020 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 78 70 89 82
Cotton Harvested 20 13 25 26
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 5 30 54 10
Cotton Last Week 1 5 32 53 9
Cotton Last Year 12 18 30 31 9

All cotton production is forecast at 18.0 million 480-pound bales, down
3 percent from the previous forecast, but up 23 percent from 2020. Based on
conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 871 pounds per
harvested acre, down 24 pounds from the previous forecast but up 24 pounds
from 2020. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.7 million 480-pound
bales, down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 26 percent from 2020.
Pima cotton production is forecast at 353,000 bales, up 5 percent from the
previous forecast but down 35 percent from 2020. All cotton area harvested is
forecast at 9.92 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up
20 percent from 2020.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2019/20 2020/21 Est. 2021/22 Proj. 2021/22 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.74 12.09 11.19 11.19
Harvested 11.50 8.28 9.92 9.92
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 831 847 895 871
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.85 7.25 3.15 3.15
Production 19.91 14.61 18.51 18.00
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Supply, Total 24.77 21.86 21.66 21.16
Domestic Use 2.15 2.40 2.50 2.50
Exports, Total 15.51 16.37 15.50 15.50
Use, Total 17.66 18.77 18.00 18.00
Unaccounted 2/ -0.15 -0.06 -0.04 -0.04
Ending Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.70 3.20
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 59.6 66.3 84.0 90.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 617 – 18 October 2021

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2021/22 Proj.
World
Sep 91.30 119.59 46.76 124.14 46.76 0.07 86.68
Oct 90.30 120.28 46.45 123.40 46.43 0.06 87.13
World Less China
Sep 52.05 92.84 36.76 83.14 46.71 0.07 51.73
Oct 51.04 93.53 35.95 83.40 46.38 0.06 50.67
United States
Sep 3.15 18.51 3/ 2.50 15.50 -0.04 3.70
Oct 3.15 18.00 0.01 2.50 15.50 -0.04 3.20
Total Foreign
Sep 88.15 101.08 46.76 121.64 31.26 0.11 82.98
Oct 87.15 102.28 46.44 120.90 30.93 0.11 83.93
Major Exporters 4/
Sep 35.61 59.92 1.78 34.74 26.94 0.02 35.61
Oct 34.61 59.42 1.78 34.73 26.55 0.02 34.51
Major Importers 8/
Sep 49.89 38.04 42.51 82.98 2.67 0.09 44.71
Oct 49.91 39.74 42.04 82.14 2.72 0.09 46.75
================================================================================
WASDE – 617 – 28 October 2021

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher in response to less production of Oranges shown in the USDA reports yesterday. The gains were moderate but were enough to push the short term trends back to sideways. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the latter stages of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 119.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Oct 12
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
10/2/2021 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
10/2/2021 10/3/2020 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 231.74 258.48 -10.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.83 5.82 0.3%
Total 237.57 264.30 -10.1%
Pack
Bulk 0.42 0.74 -43.1%
Retail/Institutional 1.34 0.82 63.2%
Total Pack 1.77 1.57 12.7%
Reprocessed -1.77 -1.57 12.7%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.23 -0.02 1078.9%
Imports – Foreign 0.02 0.24 -89.8%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.24 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.03 0.05 -40.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 230.47 257.93 -10.6%
Retail/Institutional 7.18 6.64 8.1%
Total 237.64 264.57 -10.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.53 3.60 -1.9%
Exports 0.29 0.24 21.3%
Total (Bulk) 3.82 3.84 -0.5%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.10 0.90 21.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.10 0.90 21.3%
Total Movement 4.91 4.74 3.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Ending Inventory 232.73 259.65 -10.4%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
2-Oct-21 3-Oct-20 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 254.09 311.95 -18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.82 -4.5%
Total 259.65 317.77 -18.3%
Pack
Bulk 77.77 143.54 -45.8%
Retail/Institutional 56.77 55.48 2.3%
Total Pack 134.54 199.02 -32.4%
Reprocessed -104.32 -117.01 -10.8%
Pack from Fruit 30.23 82.01 -63.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.50 -2.02 -26.1%
Imports – Foreign 200.97 136.89 46.8%
Domestic Receipts 15.40 12.77 20.6%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.53 0.80 90.4%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 6.58 18.40 -64.2%
Reprocessed FCTJ 4.12 2.72 51.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 454.65 508.04 -10.5%
Retail/Institutional 62.33 61.30 1.7%
Total 516.99 569.34 -9.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 205.38 244.32 -15.9%
Domestic 22.62 15.60 45.1%
Exports 228.00 259.91 -12.3%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 56.25 55.38 1.6%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 56.25 55.38 1.6%
Total Movement 284.26 315.29 -9.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 226.65 254.09 -10.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.08 5.56 9.4%
Ending Inventory 232.73 259.65 -10.4%

The United States all orange forecast for the 2021-2022 season is
3.88 million tons, down 12 percent from the 2020-2021 final utilization. The
Florida all orange forecast, at 47.0 million boxes (2.12 million tons), is
down 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 19.0 million boxes
(855,000 tons), down 16 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 28.0 million boxes (1.26 million tons),
is down 7 percent from last season’s final utilization.

The California all orange forecast is 43.5 million boxes (1.74 million tons),
down 13 percent from the last season’s final utilization. The California
Navel orange forecast is 35.0 million boxes (1.40 million tons),
down 14 percent from the last season’s final utilization. The California
Valencia orange forecast is 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons),
down 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Texas all orange
forecast, at 550,000 boxes (23,000 tons), down 48 percent from last season’s
final utilization.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed sharply higher and London closed higher as forecasts for better rains for Brazil Coffee areas continue but as the rains have not really come as forecast so far. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. The rains will be spotty on any given day but just about all areas will get some rain and some areas will get enough rain over the next week to promote flowering. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.914 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures today, then near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 221.00 and 238.00 December. Support is at 205.00, 200.00, and 195.00 December, and resistance is at 218.00, 224.00 and 230.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2180, 2210, and 2240 November.

DJ Africa Coffee Exports Rose in October to September Period
By George Mwangi
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
Coffee exports from the African continent rose 2% on-year in the period from October 2020 to August 2021, with the number of 60-kilogram bags sold overseas rising to 12.78 million, the International Coffee Organization said in its recent monthly report.
On a cumulative basis, exports of the commodity from Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya in the first 11 months of the year ended Sept. 30 were up 22.2%, 22% and 10.7%, respectively, the ICO said in its September coffee market report on Thursday.
Conversely, coffee exports from Ethiopia and Ivory Coast fell 33.5% and 47.2% respectively over the same period, the ICO said.
In September 2021, coffee prices reached new record highs as the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price was 170.02 U.S. cents a pound, an increase of 6.2% compared to 160.14 cents in August 2021.
“These price levels during coffee year 2020-21 confirmed a net recovery from the low levels experienced over the last three coffee years,” the ICO said. “The coffee market continued to be driven by weather in Brazil and by Covid-related disruptions affecting trade in Asia.”
African output will remain at the same level of 18.7 million 60-kilogram bags recorded in the previous coffee year, the ICO said.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday as the choppy and range bound market continues amid tight supplies and reports of improving demand. Trends are still trying to turn up again on the daily and weekly charts. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there but the tight situation now must still be dealt with.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal. USDA said that Subarbeets were 28% harvested, from 20-% last week, 68% last year, and 45% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1950 March, and resistance is at 2040, 2090, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 537.00 and 560.00 December. Support is at 516.00, 508.00, and 500.00 December, and resistance is at 527.00, 532.00, and 538.00 December.

Sugarbeet Area Planted and Harvested – States and United States: 2020 and 2021
[Includes updates to planted and harvested area previously published]
——————————————————————————————
: Area planted : Area harvested
State :———————————————————————–
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021 1/
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres
:
California …….: 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.8
Colorado ………: 24.2 24.2 23.7 23.7
Idaho …………: 172.0 173.0 169.0 170.0
Michigan ………: 157.0 154.0 154.0 152.0
Minnesota ……..: 432.0 428.0 427.0 426.0
Montana ……….: 43.6 44.0 38.0 43.5
Nebraska ………: 46.2 44.0 45.7 43.6
North Dakota …..: 221.0 226.0 219.0 224.0
Oregon ………..: 9.4 10.4 9.4 10.3
Washington …….: 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9
Wyoming ……….: 31.0 32.0 30.8 31.7
:
United States ….: 1,162.2 1,161.5 1,142.3 1,150.5
——————————————————————————————
1/ Forecasted.

Sugarbeet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2020 and
Forecasted October 1, 2021
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2021 : :
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 :————————-: 2020 : 2021
: : : :September 1 : October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: — 1,000 acres — ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
:
California 1/ : 23.9 23.8 45.5 45.5 45.5 1,087 1,083
Colorado …..: 23.7 23.7 31.3 32.8 32.8 742 777
Idaho ……..: 169.0 170.0 40.5 41.1 41.1 6,845 6,987
Michigan …..: 154.0 152.0 28.3 31.6 31.3 4,358 4,758
Minnesota ….: 427.0 426.0 26.1 26.6 28.1 11,145 11,971
Montana ……: 38.0 43.5 31.3 31.6 31.6 1,189 1,375
Nebraska …..: 45.7 43.6 31.0 29.7 29.7 1,417 1,295
North Dakota .: 219.0 224.0 24.9 25.0 26.9 5,453 6,026
Oregon …….: 9.4 10.3 40.9 40.3 40.3 384 415
Washington …: 1.8 1.9 47.8 47.8 47.8 86 91
Wyoming ……: 30.8 31.7 29.6 28.6 28.3 912 897
:
United States : 1,142.3 1,150.5 29.4 30.1 31.0 33,618 35,675
——————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2020 and Forecasted October 1, 2021
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2021 : :
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 :————————-: 2020 : 2021
: : : :September 1 : October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
:
Florida ……: 423.3 406.0 44.4 42.7 42.7 18,795 17,336
Louisiana ….: 488.4 490.0 33.1 33.2 32.2 16,167 15,778
Texas ……..: 35.9 36.0 31.7 32.5 32.8 1,138 1,181
:
United States : 947.6 932.0 38.1 37.3 36.8 36,100 34,295
——————————————————————————————
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2019/20 2020/21 Est. 2021/22 Proj. 2021/22 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1783 1618 1632 1681
Production 2/ 8149 9182 9162 9286
Beet Sugar 4351 5031 5202 5348
Cane Sugar 3798 4151 3960 3939
Florida 2106 2089 2005 2005
Louisiana 1566 1928 1825 1804
Texas 126 134 130 130
Imports 4165 3252 3212 3000
TRQ 3/ 2152 1751 1803 1591
Other Program 4/ 432 315 250 250
Other 5/ 1581 1186 1159 1159
Mexico 1376 981 1084 1084
Total Supply 14097 14052 14006 13967
Exports 61 52 35 35
Deliveries 12344 12319 12305 12305
Food 12246 12200 12200 12200
Other 6/ 98 119 105 105
Miscellaneous 74 0 0 0
Total Use 12479 12371 12340 12340
Ending Stocks 1618 1681 1666 1627
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.0 13.6 13.5 13.2
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar
2020/21 Est.
Sep 858 5715 75 4390 1345 913
Oct 858 5715 67 4469 1161 1010
2021/22 Proj.
Sep 913 5809 55 4382 1482 913
Oct 1010 5940 63 4415 1678 920
================================================================================
WASDE – 617 – 17 October 2021

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower on what appeared to be some chart based speculative selling. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year and it has been raining in Ivory Coast to promote the return of disease to the pods. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast so reduced production in both countries could mean short supplies for the world market this year. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from the previous year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.430 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2620, 2510, and 2470 December. Support is at 2660, 2600, and 2560 December, with resistance at 2730, 2790, and 2800 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1890, 1920, and 1960 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322