Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower on what was called long liquidation and perhaps some hedge selling from producers and mills. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and much above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 107.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,162 bales, from 35,287 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10740, 10680, and 10360 December, with resistance of 11400, 11520 and 11650 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower and prices made new lows for the move. Chart trends are down as the weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the middle of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 125.00 and 119.00 November. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 119.00 November, with resistance at 132.00, 134.00, and 137.00 November.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower as forecasts for better rains for Brazil Coffee areas continue. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. The rains will be spotty on any given day but just about all areas will get some rain and some areas will get enough rain over the next week or two to promote flowering. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country and as the country suffers from a resurgence of the Covid epidemic. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.916 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures today, then near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 195.00, 190.00, and 188.00 December, and resistance is at 207.00, 212.00 and 218.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2040 and 1970 November. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2140, 2180, and 2210 November.
General Comments: New York and London were higher again yesterday as supplies remain tight and demand is said to be improving. Trends are still trying to turn up again on the daily and weekly charts. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there but the tight situation now must still be dealt with.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted against November Sugar 16 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2170 March. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1950 March, and resistance is at 2040, 2090, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 537.00 and 560.00 December. Support is at 520.00, 516.00, and 508.00 December, and resistance is at 532.00, 538.00, and 544.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and London closed near the lows of the recent trading range. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year and it has been raining in Ivory Coast to promote the return of disease to the pods. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast so reduced production in both countries could mean short supplies for the world market this year. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from the previous year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.434 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2620, 2510, and 2470 December. Support is at 2660, 2600, and 2560 December, with resistance at 2730, 2790, and 2800 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1890, 1920, and 1960 December.