About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 13, 2021 1 Aug 30, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 13, 2021 3 Oct 07, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat was mostly lower and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was lower in disappointing trading before the WASDE reports release that comes later this morning. Ideas are that ending stocks levels can be less in the reports. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions today, then scattered showers . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 728, 718, and 706 December, with resistance at 749, 757, and 763 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 730, 722, and 715 December, with resistance at 753, 764, and 769 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 966 and 968 December. Support is at 937, 929, and 921 December, and resistance is at 953, 958, and 964 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher and chart patterns are still positive. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is getting harvested now. Harvesting is winding down in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are at harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand was improved last week over the previous week but demand must show consistently strong numbers to give anyone any comfort.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1365, 1352, and 1343 November, with resistance at 1386, 1401, and 1408 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday in consolidation trading. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Trends are mixed to up on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. Oats were higher as the market knows that supplies will be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 165,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 527, 523, and 513 December, and resistance is at 536, 539, and 543 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 676 December. Support is at 643, 623, and 604 December, and resistance is at 678, 684, and 690 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower last week as the US is at harvest. Many producers are harvesting Soybeans first to avoid any potential weather problems. Some are selling to elevators or delivering on contracts. The US hopes to get China to buy more ag products here in the US. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans but China is on holiday this week so no sales announcements are expected. Harvest is moving to the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen about that time. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1231, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 1258, 1263, and 1270 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 319.00 December. Support is at 317.00, 314.00, and 311.00 December, and resistance is at 325.00 332.00, and 336.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 5980, 5920, and 5870 December, with resistance at 6220, 64310, and 6400 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on weak export data so far this month from the private sources. India has been the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. The weekly chart trends are up again and Palm Oil has made new highs for the move and new multi year highs. Canola was closed for a holiday. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 948.00 and 949.00 November. Support is at 913.00, 900.00, and 892.00 November, with resistance at 933.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 4700 and 5050 December. Support is at 4800, 4590, and 4490 December, with resistance at 4900, 4960, and 5020 December.

DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 9.4%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-10 period are estimated down 9.4% on month at 496,696 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
October 1-10 September 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 123,020 180,835
RBD Palm Oil 41,556 29,090
RBD Palm Stearin 30,625 54,105
Crude Palm Oil 134,680 135,160
Total* 496,696 548,420
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group

DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 500,381 Tons, Down 7.5%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-10 period are estimated down 7.5% on month at 500,381 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Oct. 1-10 Sept. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 114,310 203,710
RBD Palm Oil 35,000 27,470
RBD Palm Stearin 30,625 46,605
Crude Palm Oil 146,480 133,390
Total* 500,381 540,915
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 6
NNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 937.30 15.00 Nov 2021 up 15.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 952.80 30.00 Nov 2021 up 0.50
Basis: Vancouver 982.80 60.00 Nov 2021 up 0.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1297.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1277.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1247.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1192.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1105.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1300.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1280.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1250.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1195.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1107.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1245.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1155.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 5,100.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 413.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.169)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 177,064 lots, or 11.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 6,253 6,295 6,180 6,244 6,226 6,250 24 107,266 85,081
Jan-22 6,179 6,206 6,146 6,193 6,173 6,182 9 44,675 77,271
Mar-22 6,140 6,173 6,118 6,157 6,140 6,147 7 19,204 45,287
May-22 6,099 6,129 6,090 6,116 6,104 6,111 7 1,384 4,147
Jul-22 6,062 6,074 6,039 6,066 6,050 6,061 11 4,529 8,993
Sep-22 5,963 6,011 5,963 5,992 5,988 5,987 -1 6 45
Corn
Turnover: 786,370 lots, or 20.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,509 2,530 2,506 2,520 2,502 2,515 13 21,587 76,590
Jan-22 2,544 2,554 2,529 2,537 2,523 2,537 14 593,124 840,483
Mar-22 2,561 2,577 2,545 2,556 2,542 2,558 16 115,383 180,480
May-22 2,590 2,608 2,582 2,596 2,575 2,593 18 40,804 101,231
Jul-22 2,600 2,620 2,595 2,600 2,581 2,605 24 14,061 46,585
Sep-22 2,605 2,620 2,593 2,604 2,583 2,604 21 1,411 2,390
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,422,072 lots, or 46.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,636 3,693 3,560 3,583 3,668 3,620 -48 40,028 44,029
Dec-21 3,600 3,600 3,459 3,467 3,502 3,494 -8 36,997 80,843
Jan-22 3,325 3,325 3,259 3,299 3,337 3,299 -38 1,018,785 1,300,521
Mar-22 3,134 3,134 3,077 3,116 3,140 3,112 -28 51,516 270,254
May-22 3,095 3,098 3,049 3,091 3,094 3,081 -13 223,594 473,022
Jul-22 3,098 3,102 3,060 3,095 3,098 3,089 -9 21,540 83,924
Aug-22 3,160 3,168 3,119 3,162 3,161 3,149 -12 22,091 35,852
Sep-22 3,156 3,173 3,125 3,166 3,162 3,152 -10 7,521 14,671
Palm Oil
Turnover: 864,656 lots, or 81.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-21 10,240 10,240 10,240 10,240 10,364 10,240 -124 40 456
Nov-21 10,098 10,146 9,910 9,994 10,160 10,034 -126 8,338 12,186
Dec-21 9,890 9,928 9,650 9,804 9,892 9,796 -96 24,641 57,871
Jan-22 9,450 9,558 9,276 9,390 9,500 9,414 -86 738,288 424,857
Feb-22 9,224 9,276 9,030 9,124 9,224 9,142 -82 36,968 60,921
Mar-22 9,096 9,098 8,848 8,934 9,050 8,954 -96 17,545 26,000
Apr-22 8,852 8,938 8,692 8,776 8,884 8,802 -82 13,539 21,271
May-22 8,774 8,822 8,580 8,638 8,790 8,692 -98 25,098 40,884
Jun-22 8,598 8,598 8,598 8,598 8,684 8,598 -86 1 540
Jul-22 8,576 8,576 8,434 8,532 8,620 8,522 -98 9 475
Aug-22 8,414 8,494 8,052 8,336 8,388 8,394 6 40 3,058
Sep-22 8,296 8,298 8,174 8,194 8,216 8,228 12 149 225
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 881,341 lots, or 85.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 10,118 10,240 10,020 10,068 10,204 10,114 -90 11,235 19,374
Dec-21 10,062 10,092 9,876 9,904 10,018 9,972 -46 27,929 56,476
Jan-22 9,788 9,852 9,630 9,672 9,790 9,720 -70 730,557 478,127
Mar-22 9,392 9,442 9,238 9,270 9,392 9,342 -50 17,291 79,531
May-22 9,182 9,230 9,026 9,042 9,206 9,110 -96 62,033 109,830
Jul-22 9,088 9,088 8,870 8,896 9,076 8,954 -122 24,305 42,132
Aug-22 8,978 9,042 8,834 8,860 9,042 8,948 -94 7,797 18,649
Sep-22 8,898 8,962 8,772 8,806 8,954 8,828 -126 194 434
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322