About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher last week on ideas of strong demand and questions about supply. The US and China are talking again and the US is pressing China to complete its Phase One trade deal agreements. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and temperatures trending to above normal. The Southeast should see isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 107.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,162 bales, from 35,287 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 10860, 10680, and 10360 December, with resistance of 11400, 11520 and 11650 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 05, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 381,378
: Positions :
: 112,937 9,775 87,906 64,254 261,713 93,176 10,248 358,273 369,641: 23,104 11,736
: Changes from: September 28, 2021 (Change in open interest: 24,652) :
: 8,032 13 11,259 4,173 13,058 -92 133 23,371 24,462: 1,281 190
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.6 2.6 23.0 16.8 68.6 24.4 2.7 93.9 96.9: 6.1 3.1
: Total Traders: 324 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 154 47 103 54 64 47 17 290 204:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and prices made new lows for the move. Chart trends are down as the weather remains generally good for production around the world but the trends are trying to turn down. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the middle of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 127.00 and 125.00 November. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 119.00 November, with resistance at 132.00, 134.00, and 137.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 5, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,964 :
: Positions :
: 3,517 9,915 1,345 125 15 2,997 139 103 1,123 615 1,093 :
: Changes from: September 28, 2021 :
: 220 -249 6 1 15 -273 83 6 -86 -10 72 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.1 76.5 10.4 1.0 0.1 23.1 1.1 0.8 8.7 4.7 8.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 18 15 4 . . 13 . . 16 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on forecasts for better rains for Brazil Coffee areas. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee now is still supporting futures. The rains will be spotty but just about all areas will get some rain and some areas will get enough rain over the next week or two to promote flowering. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country and as the country suffers from a resurgence of the Covid epidemic. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.943 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered to isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 195.00, 190.00, and 188.00 December, and resistance is at 207.00, 212.00 and 218.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2140, 2180, and 2210 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 05, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 377,504
: Positions :
: 58,032 14,092 139,367 95,557 198,744 71,949 17,269 364,906 369,473: 12,599 8,032
: Changes from: September 28, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,044) :
: 2,700 272 9,229 -2,364 -540 476 409 10,041 9,370: 3 674
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 3.7 36.9 25.3 52.6 19.1 4.6 96.7 97.9: 3.3 2.1
: Total Traders: 438 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 165 63 144 116 126 46 20 385 314:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/05/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
151,682 52,230 88,550 6,820 9,304 2,002
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.4% 58.4% 4.5% 6.1% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
146 41 40 12 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,493 2,740 9,920 4,459 2,127 33,808
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.1% 1.8% 6.5% 2.9% 1.4% 22.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 5 13 14 13 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,950 3,231
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week as supplies remain tight and demand is said to be improving. Trends are still trying to turn up again on the daily and weekly charts. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there but the tight situation now must still be dealt with.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1950 March, and resistance is at 2040, 2090, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 516.00, 508.00, and 500.00 December, and resistance is at 526.00, 532.00, and 538.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 05, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,051,640
: Positions :
: 203,181 40,336 213,217 277,998 675,932 265,915 77,041 960,311 1,006,525: 91,328 45,114
: Changes from: September 28, 2021 (Change in open interest: 2,379) :
: 180 632 5,683 -7,916 -8,785 394 3,782 -1,660 1,312: 4,039 1,067
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.3 3.8 20.3 26.4 64.3 25.3 7.3 91.3 95.7: 8.7 4.3
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 29 66 76 74 41 19 224 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/05/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
73,128 29,978 53,868 7,721 3,365 4,058
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 41.0% 73.7% 10.6% 4.6% 5.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
92 28 35 8 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,001 2,060 5,787 579 794 481
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.6% 2.8% 7.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 4 11 4 3 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,523 2,715
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.9% 3.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in consolidation trading. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year and it has been raining in Ivory Coast to promote the return of disease to the pods. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast so reduced production in both countries could mean short supplies for the world market this year. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from the previous year. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 2.193 million tons, up 5.6% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.437 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2750, 2720, and 2680 December, with resistance at 2790, 2800, and 2830 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1880, 1920, and 1960 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 05, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 296,461
: Positions :
: 43,540 32,756 70,144 116,684 165,444 53,594 19,675 283,962 288,019: 12,499 8,442
: Changes from: September 28, 2021 (Change in open interest: 32,109) :
: 11,700 -2,177 18,831 -4,783 15,703 3,828 -593 29,576 31,764: 2,533 345
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 11.0 23.7 39.4 55.8 18.1 6.6 95.8 97.2: 4.2 2.8
: Total Traders: 234 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 62 77 43 39 35 18 199 160:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/05/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
325,602 172,725 256,228 33,077 9,584 11,649
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 53.0% 78.7% 10.2% 2.9% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
148 44 42 16 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
54,482 3,338 9,275 7,110 370 33,296
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.7% 1.0% 2.8% 2.2% 0.1% 10.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 5 13 20 6 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,988 1,862
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322