About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday on ideas of strong demand and questions about supply. The US and China are talking again and the US is pressing China to complete its Phase One trade deal agreements. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and temperatures trending to above normal. The Southeast should see isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 108.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 35,287 bales, from 37,929 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 10860, 10680, and 10360 December, with resistance of 11400, 11520 and 11640 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Oct 7
As of Oct 1. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 39,579 42,440 -2,861 12,508 14,431 -1,923
Mar 22 44,515 44,389 126 8,173 8,628 -455
May 22 16,902 16,457 445 1,442 1,300 142
Jul 22 39,098 38,614 484 5,004 5,059 -55
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 7,698 6,800 898 8,171 7,745 426
Mar 23 1,469 1,469 0 142 142 0
May 23 53 53 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 89 89 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 1,132 1,132 0 2,732 2,359 373
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 150,535 151,443 -908 38,612 40,104 -1,492
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 21 0 0 0
Oct 21 48 49 -1
Dec 21 140,905 138,306 2,599
Mar 22 79,457 72,224 7,233
May 22 25,415 21,681 3,734
Jul 22 18,051 16,578 1,473
Oct 22 18 5 13
Dec 22 24,172 21,031 3,141
Mar 23 504 507 -3
May 23 56 44 12
Jul 23 54 47 7
Dec 23 1,521 1,099 422
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 290,201 271,571 18,630

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday and prices made new lows for the move. Chart trends are mixed as the weather remains generally good for production around the world but the trends are trying to turn down. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition. Florida is in the middle of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 128.00, 125.00, and 122.00 November, with resistance at 132.00, 134.00, and 137.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher despite forecasts for better rains for Brazil Coffee areas. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee now is supporting futures. The rains will be spotty but just about all areas will get some rain and some areas will get enough rain over the next week or two to promote flowering. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country and as the country suffers from a resurgence of the Covid epidemic. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above average rains and good conditions reported in Central America with near average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.938 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered to isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 195.00, 190.00, and 188.00 December, and resistance is at 200.00, 207.00 and 212.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2140, 2180, and 2210 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday. Trends are still trying to turn up again on the daily and weekly charts. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previous low levels. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there but the tight situation now must still be dealt with.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1920 March, and resistance is at 2010, 2040, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 500.00, 496.00, and 485.00 December, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 526.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in consolidation trading. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year and it has been raining in Ivory Coast to promote the return of disease to the pods. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast so reduced production in both countries could mean short supplies for the world market this year. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from the previous year. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 2.193 million tons, up 5.6% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.444 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2660, and 2600 December, with resistance at 2790, 2800, and 2830 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1880, 1920, and 1960 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322