About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 11, 2021 66 Oct 06, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat was lower and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher as trends trying to turn up again. Trends are still up longer term. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions today, then scattered showers . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 728, 718, and 7106 December, with resistance at 749, 757, and 763 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 739, 735, and 730 December, with resistance at 753, 764, and 769 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 966 and 968 December. Support is at 937, 929, and 921 December, and resistance is at 952, 958, and 964 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher and chart patterns are positive once again. There was a combination of short covering and new buying in the rally. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is getting harvested now. Harvesting is winding down in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are at harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand was improved last week over the previous week but demand must show consistently strong numbers to give anyone any comfort.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1365, 1352, and 1343 November, with resistance at 1386, 1401, and 1408 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday in consolidation trading The weekly export sales report was positive. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Trends are mixed to up on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. Oats were higher as the market knows that supplies will be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 527, 523, and 513 December, and resistance is at 536, 545, and 548 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 636 December. Support is at 604, 594, and 587 December, and resistance is at 624, 630, and 636 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher yesterday, with Soybeans higher on another strong weekly export sales report. Soybean Meal was lower in spread trading with Soybean Oil.. The US hopes to get China to buy more ag products here in the US. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans but China is on holiday this week so no sales announcements are expected. Harvest is moving to the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen about that time. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1231, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 1258, 1263, and 1270 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 319.00 December. Support is at 317.00, 314.00, and 311.00 December, and resistance is at 325.00 332.00, and 336.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5980, 5920, and 5870 December, with resistance at 6280, 6400, and 6500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes. The weekly chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher as the harvest is continuing amid good conditions in the Prairies. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 948.00 and 949.00 November. Support is at 913.00, 900.00, and 892.00 November, with resistance at 933.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 4700 and 5050 December. Support is at 4800, 4590, and 4490 December, with resistance at 4900, 4960, and 5020 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 6
NNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 937.30 15.00 Nov 2021 up 15.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 952.80 30.00 Nov 2021 up 0.50
Basis: Vancouver 982.80 60.00 Nov 2021 up 0.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1312.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1297.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1272.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1207.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1112.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1315.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1300.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1275.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1210.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1115.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1250.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1150.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 5,100.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 397.00 +13.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.177)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 249,540 lots, or 15.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 5,951 6,280 5,951 6,180 5,938 6,186 248 147,701 92,200
Jan-22 5,969 6,209 5,969 6,140 5,954 6,155 201 74,395 67,686
Mar-22 5,953 6,406 5,953 6,109 5,950 6,139 189 19,081 35,977
May-22 5,965 6,148 5,965 6,080 5,943 6,096 153 2,552 4,185
Jul-22 5,929 6,093 5,929 6,024 5,921 6,054 133 5,721 7,200
Sep-22 5,926 6,055 5,926 5,977 5,910 6,018 108 90 53
Corn
Turnover: 645,262 lots, or 16.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,515 2,515 2,474 2,479 2,497 2,490 -7 43,647 94,002
Jan-22 2,510 2,510 2,480 2,490 2,497 2,489 -8 504,363 834,412
Mar-22 2,520 2,528 2,501 2,509 2,515 2,510 -5 44,286 167,743
May-22 2,541 2,551 2,523 2,539 2,537 2,538 1 39,406 94,616
Jul-22 2,577 2,577 2,540 2,550 2,555 2,551 -4 12,944 42,083
Sep-22 2,561 2,567 2,539 2,554 2,544 2,551 7 616 1,811
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,397,628 lots, or 46.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,700 3,704 3,644 3,671 3,765 3,676 -89 31,624 58,536
Dec-21 3,553 3,579 3,450 3,522 3,618 3,528 -90 16,105 79,942
Jan-22 3,370 3,390 3,335 3,350 3,473 3,354 -119 1,009,296 1,255,563
Mar-22 3,200 3,200 3,136 3,144 3,266 3,154 -112 40,062 252,591
May-22 3,130 3,145 3,083 3,094 3,196 3,101 -95 256,115 425,874
Jul-22 3,135 3,135 3,088 3,093 3,181 3,103 -78 14,205 67,135
Aug-22 3,220 3,220 3,103 3,156 3,237 3,161 -76 22,527 31,959
Sep-22 3,211 3,211 3,151 3,158 3,230 3,167 -63 7,694 11,363
Palm Oil
Turnover: 690,620 lots, or 64.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-21 10,446 10,446 10,262 10,262 9,674 10,332 658 3 458
Nov-21 10,010 10,148 9,978 10,106 9,480 10,054 574 10,069 23,660
Dec-21 9,680 9,878 9,680 9,836 9,168 9,782 614 12,593 60,982
Jan-22 9,346 9,436 9,248 9,410 8,780 9,350 570 600,513 442,179
Feb-22 8,934 9,138 8,934 9,138 8,462 9,052 590 28,442 57,041
Mar-22 8,866 8,968 8,768 8,968 8,314 8,884 570 10,334 18,662
Apr-22 8,710 8,802 8,624 8,802 8,168 8,724 556 6,841 20,497
May-22 8,404 8,702 8,404 8,690 8,082 8,616 534 21,732 36,550
Jun-22 8,544 8,582 8,468 8,474 7,950 8,532 582 10 541
Jul-22 8,522 8,522 8,414 8,502 7,928 8,468 540 13 472
Aug-22 8,172 8,296 8,172 8,248 7,722 8,230 508 12 2,239
Sep-22 8,000 8,092 7,906 8,078 7,664 8,048 384 58 191
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 648,466 lots, or 6.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 10,020 10,254 10,020 10,144 9,770 10,136 366 15,288 30,267
Dec-21 10,024 10,024 9,830 9,938 9,494 9,924 430 21,315 55,443
Jan-22 9,702 9,826 9,622 9,714 9,276 9,718 442 511,371 458,182
Mar-22 9,372 9,440 9,252 9,336 8,882 9,344 462 11,945 75,810
May-22 9,126 9,284 9,086 9,170 8,766 9,190 424 64,005 101,921
Jul-22 8,920 9,142 8,920 9,058 8,620 9,056 436 17,937 33,746
Aug-22 9,002 9,116 8,932 9,010 8,578 9,012 434 6,340 19,421
Sep-22 8,960 9,000 8,806 8,952 8,522 8,946 424 265 282
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322