Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with Challenger Job Cuts (Sep) at 6:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech, Initial Jobless Claims (02/Oct). Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (02/Oct), and Continuing Jobless Claims (25/Sep) at 7:30 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 7.5 to 30 yrs. and EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., and Consumer Credit Change (Aug) at 2:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front the market settled lower yesterday after trading higher during the trading session. Is the bottom in? The question remains as we head into next Tuesday’s WASDE report. Exports are on the upswing and the U.S. may be the only game in town to import from and we have very attractive prices as we move forward and focus on demands thirst for product and yields bushel for acre. As Brazil may not be able to fill the gap or the void in product and a very thin carryover market. The fundamental news will become reality as we dive further into harvest and realize the crops condition. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 534 ¼ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 535 ¼ to 531 ¼.
On the Ethanol Front there is no real new headlines as this industry is battling to stay alive as governments continue to mandate and do not look at the big picture. The export market has grown and should continue to grow with many countries committed to have a percentage of ethanol blends. Once again we had no participation in the ethanol futures.
On the Crude Oil Front we could be on the verge of the mother of all rallies as OPEC is sticking to their pact on oil output. Also throw in fears of disruptions that could be weather related or man made disruptions will most definitely spike the market and clear $100 a barrel. The all-time high is $147 and change a barrel. In the overnight electronic session the November crude oil is currently trading at 7718 which is 25 points lower. The trading range has been 7727 to 7496.
On the Natural Gas Front the market really tanked yesterday. The bullish news of a hedge funs answering margin calls was in the rearview mirror as Interest Rates are the new scare in the market place which helped bury the new buyers. The market volatility is in play and the key ingredient in this market is the U.S. market is overly underpriced as we move into winter. We see the market value will increase. The Thomson Reuters weekly poll with 17 analysts participating estimates range from 84 to 115 bcf with the median injection of 104 bcf. This compares to the one-tear build of 50 bcf and the five-year average build of 79 bcf. In the overnight electronic session the November natural gas is currently trading at 5.674 which is .001 lower. The trading range has been 5.835 to 5.393.
Have A Great Trading Day!