About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Global Food Prices Rise to Fresh High, Adding to Inflation Worries
By Will Horner
Global food prices rose to their highest level in a decade in September as supply of staple foods tightened while demand remained strong, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.
The FAO’s Food Price Index rose 1.2% to 130 points from the previous month to its highest level since late 2011. The index is up over 32% from its level a year ago.
Global food prices have been supercharged by a combination of post-Covid-19 supply challenges and extreme weather events which have harmed crops. Those issues have come just as demand has rebounded as economies have reopened, pushing prices higher and adding to concerns about inflation.
The increases were largest for cereal prices, which rose 2% on month, while vegetable oil prices rose 1.7% and dairy prices added 1.5%. Sugar prices rose a more modest 0.5% and meat prices were little changed.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Oct 7
For the week ended Sep 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2021-2022 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2020-21.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 333.2 0.0 11408.0 14520.8 3655.3 0.0
hrw 97.8 0.0 4357.1 5387.2 1517.9 0.0
srw 50.3 0.0 1765.4 1163.8 672.1 0.0
hrs 107.1 0.0 3084.6 4270.1 851.9 0.0
white 78.0 0.0 2078.9 3158.0 552.8 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 121.9 541.9 60.5 0.0
corn 1265.1 0.0 26581.2 25847.8 24084.6 333.3
soybeans 1041.9 0.0 25328.2 40547.4 23326.5 19.8
soymeal 1160.9-a -1.4 3689.0 3467.0 3689.0 29.9
soyoil 55.2-b 0.0 85.2 176.8 85.2 0.0
upland cotton 246.7 55.0 7470.5 8134.4 5829.9 741.8
pima cotton 13.7 0.0 228.8 330.3 170.4 0.0
sorghum 2.4 0.0 2353.7 2935.1 2190.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.2 42.0 24.5 0.0
rice 73.4 0.0 937.4 1009.5 471.9 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Sep 24-30, which resulted
in a net increase of 369.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
791.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2020-21.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Sep 24-30, which resulted
in a net increase of 38.5 thousand metric tons. Also includes
16.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 08, 2021 1 May 17, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 08, 2021 201 Oct 04, 2021

DJ Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean, Corn Crops in 2021-2022
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab forecast record harvests of soybeans and corn in the 2021-2022 growing season, with farmers planting a larger area for both crops.
Brazilian farmers will produce 140.8 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2021-2022 season, the agency said Thursday in its first crop report for the season. Brazil produced 137.3 million tons of soybeans in the 2020-2021 season, according to Conab.
It would be the third consecutive year that production outpaced the previous year.
Brazil overtook the U.S. to become the world’s biggest producer of soybeans in the 2019-2020 season, and has held that spot since then. The country’s farmers have responded to strong demand from China by planting a record area with the oilseeds for the past 12 years, and Conab forecasts a new record for 2021-2022 of 39.9 million hectares.
Both the soybean and corn crops could be affected by the weather phenomenon known as La Nina, which can disrupt normal weather patterns and reduce rainfall, according to Conab.
Conab forecast a record total crop of 116.3 million metric tons of the grain in 2021-2022, after a drought slashed production in 2020-2021 to 87 million tons.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher, with Winter Wheat markets still in a corrective phase and Minneapolis Spring Wheat trends trying to turn up again. Trends are still up longer term. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions today, then scattered showers . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 769 December. Support is at 733, 728, and 718 December, with resistance at 757, 763, and 772 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 784 December. Support is at 739, 735, and 730 December, with resistance at 753, 764, and 769 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 966 and 968 December. Support is at 929, 921, and 915 December, and resistance is at 946, 952, and 958 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday in recovery trading. The market has been in a correction for the last week, but the correction might have come to an end in the trading yesterday.. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is getting harvested now. Harvesting is winding down in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are at harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand was improved last week over the previous week but demand must show consistently strong numbers to give anyone any comfort.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 1292 November. Support is at 1352, 1343, and 1329 November, with resistance at 1365, 1380, and 1385 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower again yesterday in consolidation trading December was lower on ideas of solid harvest progress and ideas that farmers might be selling right off the combine. Demand will be an increasing feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Trends are mixed to up on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease but some higher than expected yields reported in western areas. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. Oats were higher as the market knows that supplies will be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 314,256 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 532, 527, and 523 December, and resistance is at 545, 548, and 558 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 636 December. Support is at 587, 581, and 570 December, and resistance is at 608, 612, and 618 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower yesterday after President Putin from Russia said his country would try to help restore calm to world energy markets Energy futures moved lower and so did Corn, Soybean Oil, and Soybeans. Soybean Meal rallied a little in spread trading with Soybean Oil.. The US hopes to get China to buy more ag products here in the US. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans but China is on holiday this week so no sales announcements are expected. Harvest is moving to the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen about that time. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 261,264 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1204 and 1193 November. Support is at 1231, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 1258, 1263, and 1270 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 319.00 December. Support is at 320.00, 317.00, and 314.00 December, and resistance is at 332.00 336.00, and 338.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5920, 5870, and 5700 December, with resistance at 6280, 6400, and 6500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes.. The weekly chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher as the harvest is continuing amid good conditions in the Prairies. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 948.00 and 949.00 November. Support is at 900.00, 892.00, and 885.00 November, with resistance at 940.00, 949.00, and 953.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 4700 and 5050 December. Support is at 4800, 4590, and 4490 December, with resistance at 4900, 4960, and 5020 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 6
NNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 937.30 15.00 Nov 2021 up 15.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 952.80 30.00 Nov 2021 up 0.50
Basis: Vancouver 982.80 60.00 Nov 2021 up 0.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1292.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1277.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1247.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1182.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1087.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1295.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1280.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1250.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1185.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1090.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1240.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1145.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 5,040.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 384.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.182)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322