Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher to limit up yesterday as the strong rally continued on ideas of strong demand and questions about supply. The US and China are talking again and the US is pressing China to complete its Phase One trade deal agreements. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and temperatures trending to above normal. Texas will have isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 105.72 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 37,929 bales, from 37,929 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 10680, 10360, and 10200 December, with resistance of 10920, 10980 and 11040 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday and prices are now near the lows of the current trading range. Chart trends are mixed as the weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Florida is in the middle of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 131.00, 130.00, and 128.00 November, with resistance at 134.00, 137.00, and 142.00 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on forecasts for better rains for Brazil Coffee areas. The rains will be spotty but just about all areas will get some rain and some areas will get enough rain to promote flowering. It remains a bull market on a lack of supplies available from origin. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country and as the country suffers from a resurgence of the Covid epidemic. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.039 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 174.69 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered to isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 190.00, 188.00, and 185.00 December, and resistance is at 200.00, 207.00 and 212.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2060, and 2020 November, and resistance is at 2140, 2180, and 2210 November.
General Comments: New York and London were both higher yesterday and trends are still trying to turn up again on the daily and weekly charts. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim and that demand is increasing for both White and Raw Sugar. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices. The ISO has noted that this will be the second year of deficit production for the world, in large part because of the Brazil freeze that cut production. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving. Fears that Covid is coming back and could reduce economic activity and demand are still around. Thailand is expecting improved production. India has strong production but internal prices are higher than world prices even with big supplies on hand so exporters are quiet. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1920 March, and resistance is at 2010, 2040, and 2090 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 516.00 December. Support is at 500.00, 496.00, and 485.00 December, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 526.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again on ideas of short West African production for the coming year. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year and it has been raining in Ivory Coast to promote the return of disease to the pods. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast so reduced production in both countries could mean short supplies for the world market this year. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Drier weather will be beneficial for the harvest which will be underway soon. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from the previous year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.451 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2720, 2690, and 2660 December, with resistance at 2800, 2830, and 2860 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1870, 1840, and 1820 December, with resistance at 1930, 1960, and 1990 December.