About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat was lower in correction trading and might have entered into a corrective phase after the big rally in response to the USDA reports from last week. Trends are still up. The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions today, then scattered showers . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 769 December. Support is at 733, 728, and 718 December, with resistance at 763, 772, and 786 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 784 December. Support is at 735, 730, and 722 December, with resistance at 751, 764, and 769 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 966 and 968 December. Support is at 915, 902, and 895 December, and resistance is at 935, 940, and 946 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday in nearby months on what appeared to be speculative selling based on deteriorating chart patterns. Deferred months closed a little higher. Ideas are that demand is not yet strong enough to take up the supply available to the market. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is getting harvested now. Harvesting is winding down in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are at harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand was improved last week over the previous week but demand must show consistently strong numbers to give anyone any comfort.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 1292 November. Support is at 1352, 1343, and 1329 November, with resistance at 1365, 1380, and 1385 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 6
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.96 9.52 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.94 9.56 0.00
Brokens 9.49 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in consolidation trading December was lower on ideas of solid harvest progress and ideas that farmers might be selling right off the combine. Demand will be a feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point. Trends are mixed to up on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. Oats were also lower in correction trading but the market knows that supplies will be tight due to a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 532, 527, and 523 December, and resistance is at 548, 558, and 566 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 636 December. Support is at 587, 581, and 570 December, and resistance is at 608, 612, and 618 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher yesterday on improved demand ideas as the US and China trade representatives are talking. The US hopes to get China to buy more ag products here in the US. Soybean Oil closed higher as demand ideas for bio fuels, especially bio diesel, remained strong. The move higher comes after several down days that started with the USDA reports last Thursday. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans but China is on holiday this week so no sales announcements are expected. Harvest is moving to the half way point for Soybeans and a harvest low might be seen about that time. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1204 and 1193 November. Support is at 1231, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 1258, 1263, and 1270 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 319.00 December. Support is at 320.00, 317.00, and 314.00 December, and resistance is at 332.00 336.00, and 338.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5920, 5870, and 5700 December, with resistance at 6280, 6400, and 6500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes.. The weekly chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher as the harvest is continuing amid good conditions in the Prairies. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 948.00 and 949.00 November. Support is at 900.00, 892.00, and 885.00 November, with resistance at 940.00, 949.00, and 953.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 4700 and 5050 December. Support is at 4590, 4490, and 4470 December, with resistance at 4780, 4840, and 4900 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north and west, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 5
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 922.10 15.00 Nov 2021 up 4.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 952.30 30.00 Nov 2021 up 15.20
Basis: Vancouver 982.30 60.00 Nov 2021 up 15.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1302.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1282.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1252.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1187.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1095.00 +32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1305.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1285.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1255.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1190.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1097.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1245.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1150.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 5,060.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 386.00 +11.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.181)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322