About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower on Friday but much higher for the week on ideas of strong demand and questions about supply. The weekly export sales report showed very st4rong sales with China the big buyer. The weekly charts imply that significantly higher prices are coming. Demand or US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Good US production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and temperatures trending to above normal. Texas will have isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 101.32 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 42,747 bales, from 54,442 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 10400, 10200, and 9960 December, with resistance of 10640, 10730 and 10800 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 356,725
: Positions :
: 104,906 9,762 76,647 60,081 248,655 93,268 10,115 334,902 345,179: 21,823 11,546
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 39,180) :
: 16,537 -6,917 11,364 4,557 33,855 2,390 1,160 34,848 39,463: 4,332 -283
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.4 2.7 21.5 16.8 69.7 26.1 2.8 93.9 96.8: 6.1 3.2
: Total Traders: 321 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 150 45 105 55 65 46 18 287 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and chart trends are turning down as the weather remains generally good for production around the world. Weather concerns, especially for Brazil but also for Florida and Mexico, remained important. A freeze hit Sao Paulo state several weeks ago and reports of significant losses are being heard. It is now warm and dry, but some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas were too dry but have gotten good rains in recent weeks, and the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Florida is in the middle of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good. FCOJ inventories are 12% less than last year according to Florida Mutual.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 127.00 and 117.00 November. Support is at 131.00, 130.00, and 128.00 November, with resistance at 135.00, 137.00, and 142.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,899 :
: Positions :
: 3,297 10,163 1,339 124 0 3,270 56 97 1,209 625 1,021 :
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 :
: 388 -490 16 27 0 -301 56 -2 -199 35 -278 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.6 78.8 10.4 1.0 0.0 25.4 0.4 0.8 9.4 4.8 7.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 19 14 4 . 0 15 . . 16 6 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher last week and London closed a little lower as tight supplies at origin is still the important fundamental. It remains a bull market on a lack of supplies available from origin and New York had explosive price action on Friday as stops were hit on the way up. New York has found support from the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after extreme weather events. It has been dry in Brazil and there has been a big freeze there. The temperatures are warm now and there are forecasts for rain over the next week to bring some flowering to the trees. No one is real sure just how much rain will fall in Coffee areas but many say there will be only spotty showers. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country and as the country suffers from a resurgence of the Covid epidemic. Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first nine months of this year are expected to show a 4.2% drop from a year earlier to 1.2 million tons. Prices in New York have been firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.076 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 182.05 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 214.00 December. Support is at 201.00, 199.00, and 196.00 December, and resistance is at 212.00, 218.00 and 224.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2140, 2100, and 2060 November, and resistance is at 2180, 2210, and 2240 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 367,460
: Positions :
: 55,332 13,820 130,139 97,922 199,285 71,473 16,860 354,865 360,103: 12,595 7,357
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 16,822) :
: 3,368 -1,000 8,689 2,309 8,657 1,278 506 15,645 16,852: 1,177 -30
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 3.8 35.4 26.6 54.2 19.5 4.6 96.6 98.0: 3.4 2.0
: Total Traders: 436 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 160 62 138 119 128 47 21 385 308:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/28/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
152,065 54,584 90,679 6,655 9,446 2,017
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.9% 59.6% 4.4% 6.2% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 41 40 12 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,621 2,476 9,440 4,478 3,094 31,853
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.1% 1.6% 6.2% 2.9% 2.0% 20.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 7 12 17 9 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,417 3,060
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 2.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were both lower on Friday but higher for the week and trends are trying to turn up again on the daily and weekly charts. Traders expect light deliveries of Sugar against October NY contracts. Ideas are that the supplies available to the cash market are rather slim. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices. The ISO has noted that this will be the second year of deficit production for the world, in large part because of the Brazil freeze that cut production. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that Covid is coming back and could reduce economic activity and demand are still around. Thailand is expecting improved production. India has strong production but internal prices are higher than world prices even with big supplies on hand so exporters are quiet. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2040, 2090, and 2120 March. Support is at 1990, 1950, and 1930 March, and resistance is at 2040, 2090, and 2120 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 516.00 December. Support is at 500.00, 496.00, and 485.00 December, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 526.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,049,261
: Positions :
: 203,002 39,704 207,533 285,915 684,717 265,521 73,259 961,971 1,005,213: 87,290 44,047
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: -52,178) :
: 3,256 3,119 -2,020 -47,316 -47,654 -2,127 326 -48,207 -46,230: -3,971 -5,949
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.3 3.8 19.8 27.2 65.3 25.3 7.0 91.7 95.8: 8.3 4.2
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 22 66 77 75 40 18 218 167:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/28/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
72,389 30,316 52,625 7,962 3,341 3,303
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 41.9% 72.7% 11.0% 4.6% 4.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
93 28 35 9 5 4
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
17,332 2,284 6,043 424 1,026 826
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.9% 3.2% 8.3% 0.6% 1.4% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
23 4 10 4 4 6
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,183 2,941
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.5% 4.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again Friday and were higher for the week on ideas of short West African production for the coming year. There are increasing concerns that Ghana will have less production this year. Ghana is the worlds second largest producer behind Ivory Coast. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Drier weather will be beneficial for the harvest which will be underway soon. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is expected to drop by up to 11% in the 2021/2022 season that starts on Oct. 1 from the previous year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 5.460 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2780 December. Support is at 2690, 2660, and 2600 December, with resistance at 2740, 2770, and 2800 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 December, with resistance at 1900, 1930, and 1960 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 264,352
: Positions :
: 31,840 34,934 51,313 121,467 149,741 49,766 20,268 254,386 256,255: 9,966 8,097
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: -7,539) :
: -3,261 -2,799 -2,056 -130 -1,282 -798 -372 -6,245 -6,509: -1,294 -1,030
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 13.2 19.4 45.9 56.6 18.8 7.7 96.2 96.9: 3.8 3.1
: Total Traders: 221 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 67 69 47 40 35 18 183 158:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/28/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
314,212 176,195 246,513 33,741 8,206 10,563
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 56.1% 78.5% 10.7% 2.6% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 43 42 16 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
46,685 6,279 12,304 4,748 883 26,206
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.9% 2.0% 3.9% 1.5% 0.3% 8.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 12 11 11 12 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,770 3,258
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322