About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 05, 2021 7 Sep 29, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat was higher last week as USDA greatly cut production of HRW. Production was just 749 million bushels instead of the previous USDA estimate of 777 million. That forced USDA to cut Winter Wheat and All Wheat production as well. Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher as USDA cut production in line with trade estimates at 331 million bushels. Trends are up with new highs for the move scored in SRW and Spring and new multi year highs seen in HRW. Russia could severely restrict Wheat exports due to production lost to drought and those ideas have kept demand hopes for US Wheat alive. Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Siberian Spring Wheat conditions have been very good. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions . Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 769 December. Support is at 733, 7028, and 718 December, with resistance at 772, 786, and 792 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 784 December. Support is at 735, 730, and 722 December, with resistance at 769, 776, and 782 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 966 and 968 December. Support is at 915, 902, and 895 December, and resistance is at 940, 946, and 953 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 430,091
: Positions :
: 35,853 72,922 119,148 62,124 155,458 180,147 42,622 397,272 390,149: 32,819 39,942
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: -1,176) :
: -1,075 4,548 -5,657 -1,139 2,574 4,929 -1,114 -2,943 351: 1,767 -1,527
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 17.0 27.7 14.4 36.1 41.9 9.9 92.4 90.7: 7.6 9.3
: Total Traders: 344 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 86 118 75 107 43 25 274 277:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 244,526
: Positions :
: 68,582 46,192 46,107 42,659 121,015 66,973 9,690 224,321 223,004: 20,205 21,522
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 445) :
: 7,362 -1,946 -5,335 3,605 6,770 -4,169 621 1,462 110: -1,016 335
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.0 18.9 18.9 17.4 49.5 27.4 4.0 91.7 91.2: 8.3 8.8
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 40 63 67 84 36 15 200 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 79,382 :
: Positions :
: 25,695 55,370 3,056 1,449 702 14,935 147 2,607 10,037 3,306 5,550 :
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 :
: -337 1,800 69 509 -168 1,928 -188 91 213 272 -42 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 32.4 69.8 3.8 1.8 0.9 18.8 0.2 3.3 12.6 4.2 7.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 122 :
: 44 48 4 4 4 21 . 8 15 11 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 15,323 :
: Positions :
: 9,312 10,589 936 0 359 1,325 2,647 400 1,901 323 308 :
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 :
: -285 31 -10 0 -20 95 -300 400 72 -20 -150 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.8 69.1 6.1 0.0 2.3 8.6 17.3 2.6 12.4 2.1 2.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 22 :
: 5 13 . 0 . 4 . . . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week on what appeared to be speculative selling based on deteriorating chart patterns. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Harvesting will start to wind down in both states now. Mississippi and Arkansas producers are at harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The reports have been good in both Arkansas and Mississippi. Demand was improved last week over the previous week and was considered positive for prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1322, 1320, and 1292 November. Support is at 1352, 1343, and 1329 November, with resistance at 1380, 1385, and 1401 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,451 :
: Positions :
: 5,009 6,487 137 100 0 1,576 655 0 668 758 421 :
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 :
: -292 732 0 0 0 422 -392 -1 64 -18 84 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.0 68.6 1.4 1.1 0.0 16.7 6.9 0.0 7.1 8.0 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 14 19 . . 0 8 . 0 7 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was a little higher on Friday and higher for the week. The quarterly stocks were higher than anticipated, but production last year was less than anticipated. Demand has not been good and demand will be a feature in the trade moving forward. Trends are mixed to up on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports but the gut slot of the harvest is still a few days away. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. However, there have been reports of diseases in Illinois fields so record production might not happen in that state. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are exporting again which is good news for nearby demand. Oats were also higher as USDA showed small supplies amid a drought in the northern Great Plains and Canada. There will not be much in the way of high quality Oats for consumers to buy in the coming year.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 426,800 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 547 and 573 December. Support is at 527, 523, and 513 December, and resistance is at 543, 548, and 558 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 597 and 636 December. Support is at 581, 564, and 558 December, and resistance is at 594, 606, and 606 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,824,772
: Positions :
: 239,615 69,489 440,263 525,602 1,010,721 458,311 77,836 1,663,791 1,598,310: 160,981 226,463
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: -805) :
: 11,164 253 -1,790 -7,994 14,341 -7,883 -9,795 -6,503 3,008: 5,697 -3,814
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 3.8 24.1 28.8 55.4 25.1 4.3 91.2 87.6: 8.8 12.4
: Total Traders: 835 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 163 106 180 385 435 51 24 677 683:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,052 :
: Positions :
: 1,306 2,625 94 0 0 447 91 0 566 110 266 :
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 :
: 99 117 0 -168 0 -43 -29 0 2 26 10 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.9 51.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 8.8 1.8 0.0 11.2 2.2 5.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 8 8 . 0 0 4 . 0 6 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower last week in response to the USDA reports that showed much higher than expected stocks levels of 256 million bushels. Soybean Oil closed higher as demand ideas for bio fuels, especially bio diesel, remained strong. USDA raised production from last year to account for the increased stocks as demand was known. The increase for production and stocks was about 80 million bushels. Crush and export data are very available to the problems were all on the supply side. The weekly charts still show down trends for all three markets, and the daily chart trends are down in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Chinese demand has been supportive until now as the country was active in the US Soybeans market over the weekend. Harvest is underway for Soybeans. Gulf port elevators are coming on line and exports are increasing. The weekly export sales report showed good sales and China was the big buyer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1233, 1204, and 1193 November. Support is at 1241, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 1270, 1282, and 1295 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 319.00 December. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 320.00 December, and resistance is at 336.00 338.00, and 341.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5990 and 6150 December. Support is at 5830, 5700, and 5550 December, with resistance at 5950, 6000, and 6080 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 871,342
: Positions :
: 71,861 62,681 216,507 309,755 466,398 216,339 43,211 814,463 788,797: 56,879 82,545
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: 14,207) :
: 4,579 -37 -355 9,688 17,908 -1,472 -4,924 12,440 12,592: 1,767 1,615
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 7.2 24.8 35.5 53.5 24.8 5.0 93.5 90.5: 6.5 9.5
: Total Traders: 605 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 125 174 221 257 52 19 493 498:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 438,193
: Positions :
: 57,465 31,069 99,671 116,052 263,879 136,728 21,052 409,916 415,671: 28,277 22,522
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: -7,751) :
: 758 -11,299 1,422 -12,362 4,369 1,650 -188 -8,532 -5,695: 780 -2,056
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 7.1 22.7 26.5 60.2 31.2 4.8 93.5 94.9: 6.5 5.1
: Total Traders: 305 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 56 81 100 107 39 21 255 226:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 397,196
: Positions :
: 38,965 56,097 80,471 125,301 216,687 104,081 14,985 348,818 368,241: 48,378 28,955
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 (Change in open interest: -8,869) :
: 3,468 -455 -2,726 -4,898 -3,600 -679 -551 -4,834 -7,333: -4,035 -1,537
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 14.1 20.3 31.5 54.6 26.2 3.8 87.8 92.7: 12.2 7.3
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 64 78 107 96 36 18 247 214:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower Friday on long liquidation on the back of weaker Chicago SBO prices, but higher for the week as September export demand was very strong. It was higher today on ideas that supply and demand are in balance or supplies are short. India was the major importer as the country reduced import taxes.. The weekly chart trends are turning up again. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed a little lower on Chicago price action as the harvest is underway amid good conditions in the Prairies. The losses were very moderate when compared to the price action in Soybeans. Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell and would rather work in the fields. The weekly chart trends are sideways. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 885.00, 874.00, and 866.00 November, with resistance at 909.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objective of 4700 and 5050 December. Support is at 4470, 4320, and 4200 December, with resistance at 4600, 4660, and 4720 December.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 1
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Sept. 26, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2676.0 617.3 318.7 610.1 30.6 1585.4 415.4 44.3 6810.6
Week Ago 2724.9 594.8 359.8 609.6 27.5 1253.9 523.8 63.6 6537.6
Year Ago 2586.3 853.7 417.5 516.6 30.8 1660.9 558.3 36.5 7448.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 265.9 96.6 40.7 203.5 7.4 620.9 29.6 5.2 1418.8
Week Ago 355.8 105.3 51.1 167.9 4.6 673.3 55.2 8.0 1488.5
To Date 2681.0 583.7 393.6 1132.5 24.5 2817.4 883.9 47.0 9165.0
Year Ago 3336.5 759.0 603.9 788.6 37.7 3570.2 1357.4 63.8 11482.2
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 369.4 75.6 8.1 122.5 0.9 314.6 54.6 1.2 1072.3
Week Ago 364.9 47.1 11.8 153.2 0.2 192.0 70.2 0.0 906.0
To Date 3223.9 458.5 64.0 434.2 1.9 803.1 533.5 29.9 5941.2
Year Ago 4478.0 748.7 95.0 415.1 17.4 1859.3 847.4 15.1 9089.4
EXPORTS
This Week 265.3 36.5 56.4 225.2 0.8 75.6 1.4 35.4 765.1
Week Ago 329.4 63.6 17.4 76.5 0.3 90.1 126.1 0.0 786.8
To Date 2346.1 575.7 262.9 321.3 9.2 464.3 448.3 35.4 4714.2
Year Ago 3222.9 436.1 295.2 409.6 41.9 1656.4 733.3 10.1 7166.6
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 76.4 9.8 16.1 38.0 1.0 221.5 9.3 18.9 408.7
Week Ago 72.2 3.4 13.0 49.5 0.7 192.2 8.1 23.7 382.3
To Date 778.8 31.3 119.1 235.9 6.7 1352.2 47.6 143.6 2886.4
Year Ago 890.2 65.8 103.7 180.1 10.2 1555.7 27.5 151.5 3166.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 28, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 244,453 :
: Positions :
: 148,786 184,992 1,518 7,518 7,193 46,713 3,737 13,534 5,106 7,831 18,363 :
: Changes from: September 21, 2021 :
: 2,829 9,316 31 -148 222 3,837 -449 3,209 653 -1,182 590 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.9 75.7 0.6 3.1 2.9 19.1 1.5 5.5 2.1 3.2 7.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 296 :
: 65 60 . 6 5 48 10 11 70 67 44 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north and west, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal in the west and near to above normal in the east.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 1
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Oct. 1, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 893.50 0.00 Nov 21 dn 0.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 933.10 30.00 Nov 21 dn 10.40
Basis: Vancouver 963.10 60.00 Nov 21 dn 10.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1227.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1197.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1175.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1117.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1032.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1230.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1200.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1177.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1120.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1035.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1180.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1085.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,850.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 358.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.173)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322