About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower as Hurricane Nicholas threatened to bring some big rains to Cotton production areas in the Delta and Southeast. Futures were also lower for the week but held the recent trading range. More bolls are open now so there is a better chance for damage to or loss of fiber but so far the system has proven to be rather a mild event for Cotton production. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. A weaker US Dollar at times last week helped demand ideas. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. Even so, good US production totals are expected.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers with some big rains possible in the south and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers or dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.08 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 60,976 bales, from 63,515 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 9200, 9180, and 9100 December, with resistance of 9400, 9510 and 9600 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 330,498
: Positions :
: 99,140 12,921 63,974 51,550 234,405 95,116 8,846 309,780 320,146: 20,718 10,352
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -1,872) :
: -291 712 -812 -582 -2,951 -34 176 -1,720 -2,875: -152 1,003
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.0 3.9 19.4 15.6 70.9 28.8 2.7 93.7 96.9: 6.3 3.1
: Total Traders: 326 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 151 47 95 55 64 47 19 290 198:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week on less weather concerns, especially for Brazil but also for Florida and Mexico as these factors are now part of the market. A freeze hit Sao Paulo state several weeks ago and reports of significant losses are being heard. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Florida is in the middle of the hurricane season but the storms have missed the state so far and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 134.00, 130.00, and 128.00 November, with resistance at 146.00, 149.00, and 150.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,627 :
: Positions :
: 2,936 10,709 1,309 98 0 3,631 0 99 1,439 620 1,447 :
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 :
: 348 -163 -80 0 0 105 0 0 -320 55 -117 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.5 78.6 9.6 0.7 0.0 26.6 0.0 0.7 10.6 4.6 10.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 17 14 4 . 0 17 0 . 19 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher on Friday on tight supplies available for export from origin. Both markets were higher for the week. New York was reacting once again to the lack of Coffee available in Brazil after recent extreme weather events. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country. Prices in New York have been firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down with smaller production but have been weaker since the freeze event. The damage from the Brazil freeze several weeks ago is apparent. Some trees were killed and will have to be replaced. Dry weather and warm temperatures are reported now. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.164 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 168.46 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 30 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,077 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 184.00, 182.00, and 178.00 December, and resistance is at 191.00, 194.00 and 201.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2110, 2150, and 2170 November. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 1200 November, and resistance is at 2150, 2180, and 2210 November .

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 351,037
: Positions :
: 49,646 15,615 121,685 94,324 191,078 73,711 15,581 339,366 343,959: 11,671 7,078
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -6,631) :
: -2,772 -294 -4,858 1,043 -2,514 -26 414 -6,614 -7,253: -17 622
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 4.4 34.7 26.9 54.4 21.0 4.4 96.7 98.0: 3.3 2.0
: Total Traders: 421 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 153 70 137 113 119 45 22 371 301:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/14/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
141,387 51,856 83,310 6,559 9,518 1,824
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.7% 58.9% 4.6% 6.7% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 39 36 12 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,846 1,624 10,251 4,002 2,686 28,730
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.5% 1.1% 7.3% 2.8% 1.9% 20.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 6 13 14 11 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,319 3,444
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 2.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were both lower on Friday but higher for the week and the trends are mostly up. London made new highs for the move. There is talk of a squeeze developing as the market moves to September expiration. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. The ISO has noted that this will be the second year of deficit production for the world, in large part because of the Brazil freeze that cut production. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that the Covid is returning and could reduce economic activity and demand are around. Thailand is expecting improved production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2040, 2090, and 2210 March. Support is at 1970, 1930, and 1920 March, and resistance is at 2050, 2090, and 2120 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 526.00 December. Support is at 502.00, 496.00, and 485.00 December, and resistance is at 520.00, 526.00, and 532.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,239,038
: Positions :
: 204,569 38,925 264,266 387,898 777,396 282,235 102,197 1,138,968 1,182,783: 100,069 56,254
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -39,199) :
: -22,919 907 -16,798 -9,678 -35,129 2,322 5,630 -47,073 -45,390: 7,874 6,191
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.5 3.1 21.3 31.3 62.7 22.8 8.2 91.9 95.5: 8.1 4.5
: Total Traders: 248 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 29 78 80 78 39 18 231 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/14/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
73,197 32,951 53,749 8,012 3,058 3,662
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 45.0% 73.4% 10.9% 4.2% 5.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
90 26 33 9 5 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
17,508 2,506 5,195 307 963 704
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.9% 3.4% 7.1% 0.4% 1.3% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 7 11 2 5 5
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,858 3,360
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.6% 4.6%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again Friday and trends are turning up. Both markets were higher for the week and London made new highs for the move. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Drier weather will be beneficial for the harvest which will be underway soon. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year. Ivory Coast sources told wire services that the country has sold between 1.64 million and 1.66 million tons of Cocoa so far this season. This is considered a very big amount and there are concerns about Cocoa availability at origin moving forward. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast are now 2.142 million tons, up 4.8% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.546 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2780 December. Support is at 2600, 2570, and 2540 December, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2770 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1780, and 1740 December, with resistance at 1840, 1850, and 1900 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 266,374
: Positions :
: 35,723 35,222 50,828 117,545 151,403 50,339 19,806 254,434 257,260: 11,940 9,114
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -658) :
: 839 4,675 -671 -785 -2,752 203 -2,614 -413 -1,362: -244 704
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 13.2 19.1 44.1 56.8 18.9 7.4 95.5 96.6: 4.5 3.4
: Total Traders: 224 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 69 69 46 41 34 18 186 156:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/14/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
320,869 188,503 252,889 35,601 9,092 10,763
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 58.7% 78.8% 11.1% 2.8% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 45 43 16 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
39,632 7,405 12,829 5,519 743 24,987
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.4% 2.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
35 10 11 14 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,035 2,161
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322