About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets in consolidation trading on Friday, but much higher for the week. The weekly gains were most impressive in the Winter Wheat markets, but Minneapolis was higher as well. Trends are still turning up on the daily charts. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above
normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 728 December. Support is at 706, 690, and 677 December, with resistance at 733, 745, and 772 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 728 December. Support is at 697, 688, and 670 December, with resistance at 723, 730, and 735 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 903 and 926 December. Support is at 884, 862, and 840 December, and resistance is at 915, 927, and 937 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 434,267
: Positions :
: 43,428 71,679 123,392 62,741 154,154 175,576 44,106 405,137 393,331: 29,130 40,935
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -9,410) :
: -13,239 -3,050 -3,308 7,150 -8,401 433 3,293 -8,964 -11,466: -446 2,056
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 16.5 28.4 14.4 35.5 40.4 10.2 93.3 90.6: 6.7 9.4
: Total Traders: 366 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 86 135 78 103 45 25 295 291:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 243,759
: Positions :
: 60,535 47,680 50,979 39,543 116,774 71,983 8,660 223,039 224,094: 20,720 19,665
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -13,009) :
: -5,766 -2,287 -2,624 -2,941 -8,461 -1,130 38 -12,460 -13,334: -549 325
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.8 19.6 20.9 16.2 47.9 29.5 3.6 91.5 91.9: 8.5 8.1
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 48 63 63 83 36 15 188 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 77,523 :
: Positions :
: 26,178 53,530 2,653 957 814 13,340 410 2,275 9,087 3,026 5,495 :
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 :
: 2,272 98 56 138 81 -2,307 410 389 2,343 675 181 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.8 69.1 3.4 1.2 1.0 17.2 0.5 2.9 11.7 3.9 7.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 121 :
: 44 46 4 . 4 19 . 8 17 10 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 15,290 :
: Positions :
: 9,093 10,750 1,241 0 384 1,610 2,747 0 1,562 370 545 :
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 :
: 600 -109 659 -400 95 -1,148 950 0 144 0 325 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 59.5 70.3 8.1 0.0 2.5 10.5 18.0 0.0 10.2 2.4 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 6 13 . 0 . 4 . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week as futures pushed against strong resistance on the daily November and weekly charts at 1380. This level held the buying last week. Hurricane Nicholas came onshore near Houston and has moved to the northeast to threaten crops in Louisiana and perhaps Mississippi. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and will soon be harvested in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1381 November. Support is at 1370, 1350, and 1343 November, with resistance at 1380, 1390, and 1401 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 8,375 :
: Positions :
: 5,568 4,923 140 100 0 556 1,389 0 472 723 207 :
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 :
: -107 150 0 0 0 -81 -111 -2 9 6 -53 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 66.5 58.8 1.7 1.2 0.0 6.6 16.6 0.0 5.6 8.6 2.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 46 :
: 14 16 . . 0 4 6 0 6 6 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher last week. Trends are still up on the daily and weekly charts and the charts show that a bottom formation has been completed. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports but the gut slot of the harvest is still a couple of weeks away. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. However, there have been reports of diseases in Illinois fields so record production might not happen in that state. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. Electricity has been restored and the elevators are transloading grain if they are not fully open yet. Another tropical storm is coming to southern Louisiana but should be mostly a big rain event. Winds are expected to be moderate. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 547 and 573 December. Support is at 520, 513, and 504 December, and resistance is at 537, 543, and 548 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 581 December. Support is at 540, 525, and 512 December, and resistance is at 564, 570, and 576 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,819,484
: Positions :
: 228,732 74,782 439,864 534,285 994,526 465,132 83,668 1,668,013 1,592,841: 151,470 226,643
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -4,697) :
: -9,238 -6,424 6,509 4,017 -665 -9,427 640 -8,139 60: 3,442 -4,757
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 4.1 24.2 29.4 54.7 25.6 4.6 91.7 87.5: 8.3 12.5
: Total Traders: 846 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 149 122 182 379 443 51 26 669 699:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,691 :
: Positions :
: 1,170 2,709 96 0 0 520 152 0 493 24 264 :
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 :
: 56 -321 -1 0 0 -78 30 0 -3 11 -14 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.9 57.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 3.2 0.0 10.5 0.5 5.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 8 8 . 0 0 4 . 0 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on Friday, but Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little higher for the week. Soybean Meal closed a little lower for the week. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming on line and exports have started to resume. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but power to the export elevators is being restored. Another system is in the Gulf now and is moving into Louisiana with a lot of rain but not so much wind.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1263, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1309, 1325, and 1339 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 344.00, 349.00, and 354.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5520, 5480, and 5420 October, with resistance at 5680, 5850, and 5950 October

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 845,260
: Positions :
: 72,876 58,037 210,833 286,225 446,254 220,430 51,641 790,363 766,765: 54,896 78,494
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -6,968) :
: -6,335 -5,556 -663 -21 609 -153 3,074 -7,172 -2,536: 204 -4,432
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 6.9 24.9 33.9 52.8 26.1 6.1 93.5 90.7: 6.5 9.3
: Total Traders: 601 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 135 123 175 211 253 51 20 489 489:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 445,998
: Positions :
: 58,151 36,632 97,857 128,641 269,614 133,289 19,095 417,938 423,199: 28,060 22,799
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: -14,100) :
: -2,658 692 -16,656 4,714 104 2,382 1,252 -12,218 -14,608: -1,882 508
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 8.2 21.9 28.8 60.5 29.9 4.3 93.7 94.9: 6.3 5.1
: Total Traders: 307 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 59 82 97 106 37 17 256 223:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 401,560
: Positions :
: 38,342 62,519 74,219 133,231 221,107 106,183 14,097 351,976 371,942: 49,584 29,618
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 (Change in open interest: 2,624) :
: -2,352 1,746 5,138 790 -5,562 408 2,847 3,985 4,169: -1,361 -1,545
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 15.6 18.5 33.2 55.1 26.4 3.5 87.7 92.6: 12.3 7.4
: Total Traders: 286 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 62 70 110 99 36 19 241 215:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little lower last week despite strong demand news from the private sources. Export volumes were up very significantly for Malaysia for the month so far. Ideas of strong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher but remains tick in a trading range on the weekly charts. StatsCan forecast production much below trade expectations on Tuesday and follow through buying from the report was seen yesterday. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 862.00, 849.00, and 830.00 November, with resistance at 888.00, 900.00, and 902.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4170, 4070, and 3980 December, with resistance at 4340, 4380, and 4440 December.

DJ Malaysia Sept. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 1,089,071 Tons, Up 38.2%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-20 period are estimated up 38.2% on month at 1,089,071 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
September 1-20 August 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 390,555 198,598
RBD Palm Oil 62,130 57,798
RBD Palm Stearin 83,745 86,364
Crude Palm Oil 244,493 150,871
Total* 1,089,071 788,211
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 14, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 244,367 :
: Positions :
: 155,106 183,560 1,491 8,050 6,983 42,889 3,729 10,438 4,724 11,480 18,658 :
: Changes from: September 7, 2021 :
: -6,893 -6,552 -2,502 575 -14 105 -465 407 38 -2,079 -1,843 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 63.5 75.1 0.6 3.3 2.9 17.6 1.5 4.3 1.9 4.7 7.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 329 :
: 66 70 . 7 4 52 10 11 79 76 50 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 17
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Sept. 17, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 875.50 0.00 Nov 21 dn 4.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 923.70 50.00 Nov 21 dn 1.80
Basis: Vancouver 953.70 80.00 Nov 21 dn 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)
]
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 20

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1157.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1125.00 — Unquoted – –
Dec 1197.50 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1027.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1160.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1127.50 — Unquoted – –
Dec 1200.00 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1030.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 965.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1115.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1010.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,520.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 321.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.193)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322