About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 16
For the week ended Sep 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 617.1 0.0 10428.8 13132.7 4096.3 0.0
hrw 449.6 0.0 4075.3 4916.1 1742.6 0.0
srw 24.3 0.0 1670.5 1118.0 762.7 0.0
hrs 76.4 0.0 2801.5 3847.8 994.3 0.0
white 46.8 0.0 1810.8 2736.1 569.2 0.0
durum 20.0 0.0 70.6 514.7 27.4 0.0
corn 246.6 2.3 24572.7 20456.1 24212.8 333.2
soybeans 1264.2 2.0 22289.5 32227.3 22031.2 2.0
soymeal 95.4 42.4 12236.0 12080.1 1290.4 2148.8
soyoil -1.7 6.1 687.4 1277.0 13.3 7.6
upland cotton 284.8 0.0 6307.0 7629.5 5132.2 686.8
pima cotton 9.6 0.0 174.7 270.6 135.6 0.0
sorghum 204.6 0.0 2149.5 2569.6 2147.7 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 25.2 39.2 20.5 0.0
rice 31.5 0.0 760.1 573.3 431.0 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets on follow through buying from the StatsCan production estimates that showed less Canadian Wheat production than the market anticipated. Trends are now turning up on the daily charts. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above
normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 728 December. Support is at 690, 677, and 657 December, with resistance at 714, 733, and 745 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 728 December. Support is at 697, 688, and 670 December, with resistance at 720, 730, and 735 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 903 and 926 December. Support is at 899, 884, and 862 December, and resistance is at 903, 915, and 927 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday as another tropical system threatened crops in Texas and Louisiana. Hurricane Nicholas came onshore near Houston and has moved to the northeast to threaten crops in Louisiana and perhaps Mississippi. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and will soon be harvested in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1381 November. Support is at 1350, 1343, and 1335 November, with resistance at 1380, 1390, and 1401 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher. Trends are now up on the daily charts and the charts show that a bottom formation has been completed. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports but the gut slot of the harvest is still a couple of weeks away. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. However, there have been reports of diseases in Illinois fields so record production might not happen in that state. There are still the drought reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. Electricity has been restored and the elevators are transloading grain if they are not fully open yet. Another tropical storm is coming to southern Louisiana but should be mostly a big rain event. Winds are expected to be moderate. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher yesterday as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News: Ethanol production were 937,000 barrels per day last week, from 923,000 the previous week and 926,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol stocks were 20.0 million barrels, from 20.4 million the previous week and 19.8 million last year. Ethanol production used 92.8 million bushels of corn in the week ending September 10, from 91.4 million the previous week and 95.6 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 547 and 573 December. Support is at 524, 520, and 513 December, and resistance is at 543, 548, and 558 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 545 and 581 December. Support is at 512, 508, and 498 December, and resistance is at 538, 544, and 550 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher as did Soybean Meal. Even export sales cancellations from the US could not keep the rally away as the Chinese turned and paid much higher prices for the tonnage from Brazil. They need the Soybeans and the logistical problems in the US throw immediate delivery into doubt. Soybean Oil closed higher on follow through buying due to the StatsCan estimates showing that Canola production would be much below market expectations. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming on line and exports have started to resume. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but power to the export elevators is being restored. Another system is in Texas now and is threatening to move into Louisiana with a lot of rain but not so much wind.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1263, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1300, 1306, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 344.00, 349.00, and 354.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5670, 5620, and 5520 October, with resistance at 5850, 5950, and 6010 October

Alerts History
• 15-Sep-2021 11:00:05 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYBEAN CRUSH 158.843 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15-Sep-2021 11:00:05 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYOIL STOCKS 1.668 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 15-Sep-2021 11:00:05 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYMEAL EXPORTS 856,619 TONS – NOPA
NOPA August soybean crush tops all estimates at 158.843 million bushels – Reuters News
15-Sep-2021 11:00:10 AM
To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, Sept 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. soybean crush rose to a three-month high in August and topped all trade estimates, while soyoil stocks at the end of last month also exceeded expectations, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data issued on Wednesday.
NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 158.843 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 2.4% from the 155.105 million bushels crushed in July but 3.8% below the 165.055 million bushels in crushed August 2020.
The August crush had been expected to drop to 154.183 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from nine analysts. Estimates ranged from 146.000 million to 158.600 million bushels, with a median of 155.000 million bushels. (Full Story)
Before August, the crush has fallen short of the consensus market estimate for six straight months as more processors than normal idled plants seasonally for needed maintenance and amid tightening soybean supplies.
In a monthly report on Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture modestly lowered its 2020/21 marketing year U.S. crush forecast by 15 million bushels to reflect the recent slowdown and also trimmed its 2021/22 season crush outlook by 25 million bushels. WASDE09
NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members as of August 31 rose to 1.668 billion lbs, up from 1.617 billion lbs at the end of July.
Oil stocks had been expected to drop to 1.555 billion lbs, based on estimates gathered from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.500 billion to 1.600 billion lbs, with a median of 1.550 billion.
Soymeal exports last month jumped to 856,619 tons, up from 719,508 tons in July and 754,634 tons in August 2020, NOPA said.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher again yesterday on strong demand news from the private sources. It was closed today for a holiday. Export volumes were up very significantly for Malaysia for the month so far. Ideas of strong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher once again as the harvest is getting ready to start. StatsCan forecast production much below trade expectations on Tuesday and follow through buying from the report was seen yesterday. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 864.00, 849.00, and 830.00 November, with resistance at 900.00, 902.00, and 905.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 42370, 41290, and 4250 November, with resistance at 4480, 4510, and 4530 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 15
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Sept. 15, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 872.30 0.00 Nov 21 dn 4.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 929.80 50.00 Nov 21 up 7.50
Basis: Vancouver 964.80 85.00 Nov 21 up 7.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 238,880 lots, or 14.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 5,845 5,946 5,831 5,940 5,870 5,900 30 165,528 153,609
Jan-22 5,861 5,956 5,861 5,945 5,893 5,917 24 51,073 55,853
Mar-22 5,873 5,953 5,867 5,938 5,893 5,917 24 8,851 20,432
May-22 5,885 5,957 5,881 5,946 5,902 5,929 27 855 2,938
Jul-22 5,869 5,937 5,863 5,918 5,882 5,899 17 12,573 4,643
Sep-22 – – – 5,885 5,885 5,885 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 958,852 lots, or 23.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,461 2,463 2,439 2,441 2,473 2,451 -22 84,229 167,822
Jan-22 2,457 2,462 2,436 2,437 2,466 2,448 -18 753,753 1,029,494
Mar-22 2,475 2,482 2,458 2,460 2,487 2,470 -17 59,540 167,563
May-22 2,512 2,512 2,487 2,489 2,515 2,496 -19 45,314 85,112
Jul-22 2,518 2,524 2,504 2,505 2,528 2,514 -14 15,839 31,310
Sep-22 2,522 2,525 2,508 2,508 2,527 2,517 -10 177 323
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,294,679 lots, or 45.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,776 3,835 3,757 3,822 3,778 3,799 21 87,809 111,631
Dec-21 3,696 3,719 3,670 3,718 3,686 3,695 9 11,312 79,043
Jan-22 3,538 3,550 3,510 3,548 3,537 3,533 -4 975,809 1,294,526
Mar-22 3,346 3,360 3,327 3,339 3,355 3,340 -15 40,471 306,541
May-22 3,262 3,270 3,236 3,248 3,267 3,252 -15 141,447 369,513
Jul-22 3,240 3,247 3,210 3,217 3,242 3,226 -16 11,217 73,844
Aug-22 3,296 3,302 3,269 3,274 3,297 3,285 -12 23,706 31,284
Sep-22 3,275 3,299 3,268 3,272 3,288 3,283 -5 2,908 3,013
Palm Oil
Turnover: 975,127 lots, or 83.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-21 9,106 9,368 9,106 9,298 9,060 9,200 140 709 3,922
Nov-21 9,124 9,320 9,092 9,224 9,008 9,176 168 20,177 55,504
Dec-21 8,870 9,028 8,798 8,928 8,690 8,896 206 31,427 62,864
Jan-22 8,456 8,652 8,416 8,564 8,338 8,524 186 860,190 427,741
Feb-22 8,208 8,400 8,176 8,306 8,094 8,264 170 21,830 53,677
Mar-22 8,040 8,226 8,004 8,148 7,944 8,108 164 14,090 16,408
Apr-22 7,954 8,088 7,866 8,014 7,822 7,974 152 10,475 18,693
May-22 7,804 7,984 7,760 7,916 7,730 7,870 140 15,779 24,309
Jun-22 7,760 7,790 7,760 7,790 7,688 7,774 86 2 537
Jul-22 – – – 7,636 7,586 7,636 50 0 480
Aug-22 7,628 7,754 7,596 7,664 7,514 7,634 120 378 1,484
Sep-22 7,526 7,734 7,516 7,624 7,500 7,638 138 70 90
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 901,172 lots, or 81.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 9,550 9,670 9,482 9,588 9,450 9,574 124 33,517 72,335
Dec-21 9,316 9,468 9,278 9,374 9,236 9,370 134 21,962 65,382
Jan-22 9,050 9,200 9,008 9,110 8,970 9,094 124 776,504 497,640
Mar-22 8,652 8,832 8,646 8,750 8,620 8,738 118 14,511 76,172
May-22 8,494 8,630 8,428 8,540 8,424 8,514 90 35,385 81,376
Jul-22 8,342 8,484 8,286 8,392 8,290 8,378 88 11,894 29,711
Aug-22 8,250 8,380 8,196 8,298 8,198 8,276 78 7,357 16,562
Sep-22 8,210 8,314 8,170 8,300 8,170 8,254 84 42 79
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322