Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Business Inventories, Retail Sales MoM (Aug), Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims (11/Sep), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (11/Sep) (11/Sep),Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep), Retail Sales Ex Autos and Continuing Jobless Claims at 7:30 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs. and EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M.,4-week and 8-week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Overall Net Capital Flows (Jul), Foreign Bond Investment (Jul) and Net Long-Term Tic Flows at 3:00 P.M.
On the Hurricane Front what was supposed to be a less-active hurricane season we are already at N in the alphabet in mid-September and unfortunately the hits keep coming. Nicholas is slowly moving north in Louisiana clocked at 2 mph. Disturbance 2 is about 250 miles south-southeast the Outer banks of North Carolina and has a 70% chance of formation in the next 48 hrs. Disturbance 1 is about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving west-northwestward across the Atlantic and could pose a serious threat to the already battered Gulf of Mexico states. Disturbance 3 is brewing off the coast of Africa and moving west-northwestward, we will keep you posted on further details.
On the Corn Front the market is weighing in on no new short players in the futures market. The short players are thinking profit taking and there is no player showing they want to continue to step on this market. Bullish fundamentals may come back into play. No carryover to speak of and questionable yields will drive this market. All reports are big at this time with the September 30th, Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary and the October 12th Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 533 which is a ½ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 537 ½ to 532 ¾.
On the Ethanol Front production is up as stocks dive. The EIA reported that production averaged 937,000 barrels per day up 14,000 from last week and an increase of 212,000 barrels from a year ago. Stocks hit a 14-week low of 20.010 million barrels a decrease of 380,000 barrels last week but above the pandemic lockdown of 212,000 barrels last year. The ethanol futures are showing zero trades and Open Interest.
On the Crude Oil Front the market is pulling back from the recent rally. With all of the tropical storms adding fuel to the fire. The rally began before the storms were a threat and bullish fundamentals have driven this market. In the overnight electronic session the October crud oil is currently trading at 7193 which is 68 points lower. The trading range has been 7299 to 7167. The hurricane threat going into the weekend should deter traders that want to be short.
On the Natural Gas Front we have the EIA data today. The market seems to be in profit taking mode. The October contract is currently trading at 5.318 which is 0.142 lower. The trading range has been 5.600 to 5.228. The Thomson Reuters weekly poll with 18 analysts participating estimates range from 59 bcf to 85 bcf with the median 76 bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 70 bcf and the five-year average build of 74 bcf.
Have A Great Trading Day!