About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 16, 2021 80 Sep 10, 2021
ROUGH RICE September Sep 16, 2021 5 Sep 14, 2021
CORN September Sep 16, 2021 17 Sep 14, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 16, 2021 1 Sep 14, 2021
SOYBEAN September Sep 16, 2021 1 Aug 30, 2021
WHEAT September Sep 16, 2021 3 Sep 14, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets in the wake of the StatsCan production estimates that showed less Canadian Wheat production than the market anticipated. Trends are now mixed on the daily charts. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above
normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 690, 677, and 657 December, with resistance at 706, 714, and 733 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 688, 670, and 659 December, with resistance at 715, 720, and 730 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 862, 840, and 830 December, and resistance is at 890, 903, and 915 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday as another tropical system threatened crops in Texas and Louisiana. Hurricane Nicholas came o shore near Houston. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and will soon be harvested in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Nicholas is moving generally to the northeast now. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1381 November. Support is at 1343, 1335, and 1326 November, with resistance at 1370, 1380, and 1390 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher. Trends are now mixed on the daily charts but are still down on the weekly charts. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. Electricity has been restored and the elevators are transloading grain if they are not fully open yet. Another tropical storm is coming to southern Louisiana but should be mostly a big rain event. Winds are expected to be moderate. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher yesterday as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 513, 504, and 498 December, and resistance is at 524, 530, and 543 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 508, 498, and 486 December, and resistance is at 521, 525, and 531 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower in Soybeans and in Soybean Meal. Soybean Oil closed higher in part due to the StatsCan estimates showing that Canola production would be much below market expectations. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming on line and exports have started to resume. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but power to the export elevators is being restored. Another system is in Texas now and is threatening to move into Louisiana with a lot of rain but not so much wind.
Overnight News: USDA said that sales of 196,000 tons to unknown destinations and 132,000 tons to China of Soybeans were cancelled.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1263, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1300, 1306, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 342.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil down with objectives of 5480 and 5210 October. Support is at 5520, 5480, and 5420 October, with resistance at 5660, 5730, and 5850 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher yesterday. Ideas of strong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher as the harvest is getting ready to start. StatsCan forecast production much below trade expectations. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 849.00, 830.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 900.00, 902.00, and 905.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4250, 4150, and 4050 November, with resistance at 4380, 4480, and 4510 November.

DJ Malaysia Sept. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Rose 53.9%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-15 period are estimated to have risen 53.9% on month to 832,355 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Sept. 1-15 Aug. 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 306,415 165,325
RBD Palm Oil 40,570 42,798
RBD Palm Stearin 68,775 72,814
Crude Palm Oil 198,510 85,541
Total* 832,355 540,853
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 868.70 15.00 Nov 2021 up 1.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 911.70 50.00 Nov 2021 up 8.00
Basis: Vancouver 946.70 85.00 Nov 2021 up 8.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1202.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 1187.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1147.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1057.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 987.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1205.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 1190.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1150.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1060.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1140.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1030.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,680.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 320.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1565)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 228,003 lots, or 13.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 5,884 5,930 5,821 5,849 5,888 5,870 -18 160,562 138,567
Jan-22 5,890 5,940 5,851 5,869 5,908 5,893 -15 45,484 58,714
Mar-22 5,902 5,939 5,856 5,873 5,903 5,893 -10 8,643 21,385
May-22 5,911 5,941 5,869 5,886 5,914 5,902 -12 598 2,798
Jul-22 5,879 5,927 5,850 5,876 5,890 5,882 -8 12,716 4,890
Sep-22 – – – 5,885 5,890 5,885 -5 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 816,979 lots, or 20.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 2,464 2,483 2,457 2,461 2,471 2,473 2 81,053 178,081
Jan-22 2,460 2,475 2,455 2,459 2,460 2,466 6 656,907 943,203
Mar-22 2,478 2,495 2,475 2,479 2,481 2,487 6 46,094 168,515
May-22 2,505 2,522 2,505 2,509 2,511 2,515 4 17,008 70,648
Jul-22 2,522 2,533 2,519 2,524 2,522 2,528 6 15,576 31,157
Sep-22 2,512 2,539 2,512 2,526 2,522 2,527 5 341 265
Soymeal
Turnover: 974,449 lots, or 3.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 3,777 3,790 3,770 3,779 3,771 3,778 7 43,767 111,046
Dec-21 3,692 3,697 3,678 3,686 3,678 3,686 8 3,874 79,973
Jan-22 3,545 3,552 3,526 3,534 3,532 3,537 5 761,338 1,269,020
Mar-22 3,368 3,368 3,344 3,349 3,352 3,355 3 31,740 308,263
May-22 3,278 3,283 3,257 3,260 3,265 3,267 2 97,729 370,571
Jul-22 3,255 3,258 3,230 3,238 3,241 3,242 1 8,959 71,221
Aug-22 3,309 3,316 3,287 3,293 3,294 3,297 3 23,485 32,581
Sep-22 3,326 3,329 3,269 3,282 3,294 3,288 -6 3,557 2,215
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,098,438 lots, or 91.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-21 9,030 9,160 8,950 9,136 8,970 9,060 90 882 4,460
Nov-21 8,990 9,118 8,900 9,110 8,940 9,008 68 19,311 56,785
Dec-21 8,638 8,822 8,578 8,814 8,590 8,690 100 26,621 63,024
Jan-22 8,306 8,454 8,214 8,442 8,240 8,338 98 988,141 404,779
Feb-22 8,068 8,212 7,996 8,188 8,008 8,094 86 24,094 55,072
Mar-22 7,926 8,044 7,842 8,018 7,858 7,944 86 14,650 17,188
Apr-22 7,840 7,914 7,734 7,896 7,744 7,822 78 11,269 19,273
May-22 7,700 7,808 7,632 7,796 7,632 7,730 98 13,262 24,473
Jun-22 7,682 7,696 7,682 7,696 7,520 7,688 168 2 537
Jul-22 7,586 7,586 7,586 7,586 7,476 7,586 110 1 480
Aug-22 7,510 7,610 7,456 7,610 7,420 7,514 94 117 1,143
Sep-22 7,352 7,566 7,340 7,526 7,420 7,500 80 88 55
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,157,247 lots, or 10.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-21 9,594 9,594 9,328 9,518 9,502 9,450 -52 44,824 76,598
Dec-21 9,310 9,316 9,150 9,304 9,254 9,236 -18 30,773 69,060
Jan-22 9,002 9,048 8,880 9,030 8,966 8,970 4 993,851 485,190
Mar-22 8,638 8,688 8,554 8,674 8,612 8,620 8 20,241 77,337
May-22 8,452 8,484 8,356 8,460 8,398 8,424 26 47,700 79,031
Jul-22 8,310 8,354 8,218 8,326 8,238 8,290 52 10,426 29,755
Aug-22 8,192 8,274 8,118 8,234 8,148 8,198 50 9,335 16,507
Sep-22 8,200 8,254 8,090 8,194 8,148 8,170 22 97 49
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322