About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE September Sep 15, 2021 25 Sep 13, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 15, 2021 3 Sep 13, 2021
OATS September Sep 15, 2021 2 Aug 27, 2021
WHEAT September Sep 15, 2021 6 Sep 10, 2021

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 13
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 09, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/09/2021 09/02/2021 09/10/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 6,550 5,727
CORN 138,189 278,294 939,113 177,642 1,211,033
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 389
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 0 200 948
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 4,526 3,831 72,465 5,843 105,561
SOYBEANS 105,368 90,603 1,634,646 135,722 2,316,873
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 547,943 412,649 694,154 7,066,057 8,161,621
Total 796,126 785,377 3,340,378 7,392,038 11,802,152
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ Brazil Winter Corn Harvest Concluding, Summer Planting Advancing — Market Talk
1105 ET – Brazilian farmers are finishing up their harvest of winter corn from the 2020-2021 season while planting of the 2021-2022 summer crop is advancing, according to agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado. Harvesting work in Brazil’s center-south states, which together produce close to 90% of the country’s total corn crop, was 97.9% complete as of Sept. 10, Safras said. Planting of summer corn increased to 16.7% of the estimated area planted with the crop in the entire country, behind the 18.1% finished on the same date a year earlier, but ahead of the 12% five-year average for the date, the consultancy said. The USDA forecast a 2021-2022 total corn crop of 118M metric tons for Brazil, after droughts and frosts in some areas cut production to 86M tons in the 2020-2021 season. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

Crop Progress
Date 12-Sep 5-Sep 2020 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 96 94 99 99
Cotton Bolls Opening 36 29 46 43
Cotton Harvested 5 6 8
Corn Dough 95 91 97 94
Corn Dented 87 74 88 81
Corn Mature 37 21 35 31
Corn Harvested 4 5 5
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 38 12 35 29
Sorghum Coloring 83 73 83 80
Sorghum Mature 39 32 38 38
Sorghum Harvested 21 19 23 25
Peanuts Harvested 2 4 3
Rice Harvested 40 28 33 43
Oats Harvested 97 92 95 94
Spring Wheat Harvested 95 88 80 83
Barley Harvested 97 92 94 93
Winter Wheat Planted 12 5 9 8

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 5 30 50 14
Cotton Last Week 1 6 32 50 11
Cotton Last Year 7 20 28 36 9

Corn This Week 5 10 27 44 14
Corn Last Week 4 10 27 45 14
Corn Last Year 5 10 25 46 14

Soybeans This Week 4 10 29 45 12
Soybeans Last Week 4 10 29 46 11
Soybeans Last Year 3 8 26 50 13

Rice This Week 1 3 22 59 15
Rice Last Week 1 3 21 60 15
Rice Last Year 1 4 23 56 16

Sorghum This Week 4 10 29 47 10
Sorghum Last Week 3 10 30 47 10
Sorghum Last Year 6 11 31 40 12

Peanuts This Week 1 2 20 65 12
Peanuts Last Week 0 2 24 64 12
Peanuts Last Year 2 6 21 57 14

Pasture and Range This Week 20 22 33 21 4
Pasture and Range Last Week 20 21 30 24 5
Pasture and Range Last Year 17 25 34 22 2

DJ Statistics Canada Crop Production Report -Sep 14
WINNIPEG – Canada 2021/22 grain/oilseed production estimates. The
results were compiled using model-based data. August and year-ago
estimates for comparison. Source: Statistics Canada. Production in
thousand metric tons, yield in kg/hectare, area harvested in thousand
hectares.
Harvested Avg Production
area yield 2021-22 2021-22 2020-21
SEP AUG FINAL
barley 3,029.0 2,358 7,141.3 7,835.9 10,740.6
edible beans N/A N/A N/A N/A 490.0
canaryseed N/A N/A N/A N/A 178.2
canola 9,002.4 1,420 12,781.9 14,748.6 19,484.7
chickpeas 72.2 885 63.9 63.0 214.4
corn 1,383.7 10,384 14,368.1 13,676.5 13,563.4
faba beans 34.1 1,205 41.1 45.0 124.5
flaxseed 399.9 947 378.8 415.5 578.0
lentils 1,714.4 1,051 1,802.3 1,979.0 2,867.8
mixed grains 41.3 2,840 117.3 125.4 233.0
mustard 119.0 596 70.9 78.9 98.8
oats 1,128.0 2,286 2,578.7 3,070.1 4,575.8
dry peas 1,507.5 1,676 2,526.6 2,626.7 4,594.3
fall rye* N/A N/A N/A N/A 487.8
soybeans 2,138.7 2,752 5,886.3 5,823.4 6,358.5
sugar beets N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,066.5
sunflower seed N/A N/A N/A N/A 101.3
triticale N/A N/A N/A N/A 43.0
all wheat 9,169.4 2,368 21,714.8 22,947.9 35,183.0
durum wheat 2,185.6 1,622 3,545.1 3,998.2 6,571.1
spring wheat 6,447.2 2,376 15,321.0 16,102.3 25,841.5
winter wheat* 536.6 5,309 2,848.7 2,847.2 2,770.4
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in Chicago and Minneapolis on follow through fund selling but closed higher in Kansas City in response to the USDA production estimates. Trends are now down on the daily and weekly charts and the weekly charts imply that big tops are now in the market. The demand has not been seen here, so ideas of increased ending stocks are around. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above
normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 652 December. Support is at 677, 657, and 652 December, with resistance at 697, 706, and 714 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 670, 659, and 638 December. Support is at 670, 659, and 643 December, with resistance at 697, 715, and 720 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 840 December. Support is at 862, 840, and 830 December, and resistance is at 890, 903, and 915 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday as another tropical system threatened crops in Texas and Louisiana. The system was moving into Texas from Mexico yesterday afternoon. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1381 November. Support is at 1343, 1335, and 1326 November, with resistance at 1368, 1380, and 1390 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower in consolidation trading after futures rallied on bearish news last Friday. USDA showed increased harvested area, yield, and production and ending stocks on Friday but most estimates were close to and just above trade ideas. The harvested acreage estimate was below trade ideas. Trends are now mixed on the daily charts but are still down on the weekly charts. Demand was increased to partially offset the increased production and ending stocks were just under 1.5 billion bushels. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher yesterday as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 504, 498, and 494 December, and resistance is at 524, 530, and 543 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 498, 486, and 484 December, and resistance is at 516, 518, and 520 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower in Soybeans and a little higher in Soybean Meal. Soybean Oil closed mixed. Traders were anticipating good crop progress and condition estimates from USDA yesterday. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming on line and exports have started to resume. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but power to the export elevators has started to be restored. Another system is in Texas now and is threatening to move into Louisiana with a lot of rain but not so much wind.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1263, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1300, 1306, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 342.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil down with objectives of 5480 and 5210 October. Support is at 5520, 5480, and 5420 October, with resistance at 5660, 5730, and 5850 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher last week but well off of the highs of the week on demand concerns. Ideas of strong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher as the harvest is getting ready to start. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains and hot and dry are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. StatsCan released its stocks estimates and Canola stocks were above trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 816.00 and 804.00 November. Support is at 849.00, 830.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 884.00, 902.00, and 905.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4150, 4050, and 3930 November, with resistance at 4370, 4480, and 4510 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 868.70 15.00 Nov 2021 up 1.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 911.70 50.00 Nov 2021 up 8.00
Basis: Vancouver 946.70 85.00 Nov 2021 up 8.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1177.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 1165.00 — Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1127.50 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1042.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 977.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1180.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 1167.50 — Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1130.00 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1045.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1127.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1020.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 317.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.16)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 208,979 lots, or 12.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,850 5,850 5,850 5,850 5,881 5,799 -82 2 0
Nov-21 5,914 5,924 5,851 5,873 5,917 5,888 -29 144,217 144,734
Jan-22 5,935 5,940 5,873 5,897 5,920 5,908 -12 42,289 57,920
Mar-22 5,910 5,935 5,871 5,890 5,914 5,903 -11 7,676 21,097
May-22 5,942 5,946 5,877 5,895 5,931 5,914 -17 1,117 2,844
Jul-22 5,899 5,920 5,854 5,877 5,904 5,890 -14 13,678 4,835
Corn
Turnover: 732,828 lots, or 18.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,510 2,540 2,510 2,510 2,555 2,548 -7 22 0
Nov-21 2,490 2,490 2,463 2,464 2,490 2,471 -19 76,599 191,373
Jan-22 2,475 2,477 2,455 2,457 2,471 2,460 -11 589,349 959,444
Mar-22 2,495 2,497 2,477 2,478 2,491 2,481 -10 36,742 170,028
May-22 2,525 2,525 2,507 2,509 2,520 2,511 -9 17,774 70,695
Jul-22 2,533 2,533 2,518 2,523 2,531 2,522 -9 12,342 30,478
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,237,168 lots, or 43.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,848 3,852 3,848 3,848 3,830 3,714 -116 4 0
Nov-21 3,775 3,794 3,749 3,778 3,769 3,771 2 62,293 113,092
Dec-21 3,676 3,697 3,652 3,692 3,658 3,678 20 7,049 79,586
Jan-22 3,528 3,553 3,508 3,545 3,525 3,532 7 958,992 1,269,044
Mar-22 3,344 3,368 3,335 3,360 3,349 3,352 3 43,337 309,309
May-22 3,260 3,278 3,249 3,274 3,266 3,265 -1 134,887 358,785
Jul-22 3,243 3,255 3,226 3,255 3,241 3,241 0 9,178 70,033
Aug-22 3,295 3,310 3,280 3,303 3,297 3,294 -3 21,428 32,621
Palm Oil
Turnover: 894,974 lots, or 73.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,298 8,938 -360 101 0
Oct-21 8,980 9,024 8,908 8,984 8,980 8,970 -10 3,295 4,864
Nov-21 8,996 9,004 8,866 8,976 8,948 8,940 -8 15,417 59,009
Dec-21 8,618 8,660 8,514 8,626 8,618 8,590 -28 20,037 63,102
Jan-22 8,280 8,310 8,158 8,278 8,254 8,240 -14 788,485 378,780
Feb-22 8,040 8,090 7,928 8,068 8,026 8,008 -18 23,072 54,719
Mar-22 7,882 7,928 7,780 7,900 7,878 7,858 -20 14,851 17,349
Apr-22 7,752 7,810 7,656 7,776 7,752 7,744 -8 10,583 19,359
May-22 7,634 7,708 7,568 7,672 7,634 7,632 -2 19,125 24,597
Jun-22 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,520 7,482 7,520 38 2 538
Jul-22 7,488 7,488 7,466 7,466 7,552 7,476 -76 3 480
Aug-22 7,410 7,444 7,410 7,444 7,372 7,420 48 3 1,239
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 950,599 lots, or 85.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 – – – 9,418 9,580 9,418 -162 0 0
Nov-21 9,500 9,548 9,460 9,514 9,538 9,502 -36 34,068 84,312
Dec-21 9,298 9,304 9,198 9,254 9,298 9,254 -44 47,247 72,527
Jan-22 9,002 9,022 8,912 8,978 9,026 8,966 -60 777,092 476,348
Mar-22 8,672 8,676 8,552 8,618 8,642 8,612 -30 22,567 77,925
May-22 8,388 8,496 8,130 8,408 8,380 8,398 18 50,228 75,290
Jul-22 8,244 8,346 8,168 8,270 8,244 8,238 -6 11,597 29,555
Aug-22 8,176 8,214 8,088 8,168 8,170 8,148 -22 7,800 16,388
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322