About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 13, 2021 5 Sep 08, 2021
ROUGH RICE September Sep 13, 2021 157 Sep 09, 2021

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 10
For the week ended Sep 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for rice and cotton began Aug 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil will begin Oct 1.
For corn, soybeans and sorghum, “this year” is the 2021-2022
marketing year, which began Sep 1, while “last year” is 2020-2021.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 388.4 0.0 9811.7 12796.9 3993.3 0.0
hrw 227.4 0.0 3625.7 4856.6 1507.4 0.0
srw 34.1 0.0 1646.2 1085.6 760.3 0.0
hrs 77.7 0.0 2725.1 3805.4 1049.3 0.0
white 49.2 0.0 1764.0 2560.9 668.8 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 50.6 488.4 7.4 0.0
corn 3883.9-a 0.0 24326.1 18846.9 24158.2 331.0
soybeans 3277.7-b 0.0 21025.2 29828.4 21011.4 0.0
soymeal 60.7 48.3 12140.6 12185.5 1252.1 2106.4
soyoil -1.6 0.1 689.0 1276.9 18.3 1.5
upland cotton 453.0 19.5 6022.1 7110.0 5084.8 686.8
pima cotton 12.1 0.0 165.1 242.6 129.1 0.0
sorghum 1350.0-c 0.0 1944.9 2448.0 1944.9 0.0
barley -0.1 0.0 25.2 39.2 21.3 0.0
rice 34.0 0.0 728.6 494.6 482.6 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 27-Sep 2 which
resulted in a net increase of 905.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
2978.1 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2020-2021.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 27-Sep 2 which resulted in a
a net increase of 1471.9 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1805.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2020-21.
-c: Includes new sales activity for Aug 27-Sep 2 which resulted in
a net increase of 1126.4 thousand metric tons. Also includes
223.6 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2020-2021.

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2021 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA August USDA 2020
Corn Production 14,897 14,667-15,116 14,750 14,182
Soybean Production 4,363 4,269-4,440 4,339 4,135
Corn Yield 175.5 172.2-177.5 174.6 172.0
Soybean Yield 50.3 49.0-51.2 50.0 50.2
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSomp North America 14,709 174.9 4,327 50.2
Agrisource 14,900 175.5 4,350 50.1
Allendale 14,975 176.3 4,338 50.1
DC Analysis 14,912 174.8 4,365 50.3
Doane 15,116 177.0 4,436 51.2
EDF Man 14,872 176.0 4,421 51.0
Futures Intl 14,777 173.6 4,367 50.2
Grain Cycles 15,053 176.8 4,345 50.2
Linn Group 14,996 176.7 4,345 50.2
Sid Love Consulting 14,784 176.0 4,300 50.0
Midland Research 14,945 175.6 4,390 50.4
Midwest Market Solution 14,787 175.0 4,367 50.4
Northstar 14,950 175.5 4,378 50.5
Prime Ag 14,960 176.0 4,404 50.5
RJOBrien 14,667 172.2 4,269 49.0
RMC 14,960 176.0 4,378 50.5
StoneX Group 15,088 177.5 4,379 50.8
US Commodities 14,728 174.3 4,440 51.2
Vantage RM 14,810 173.7 4,310 49.7
Western Milling 14,872 176.0 4,339 50.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,977 176.2 4,377 50.6

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,159 1,091-1,224 1,117
Soybeans 166 140-199 160
2021-22
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,329 1,018-1,545 1,242
Soybeans 178 132-245 155
Wheat 619 579-653 627
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,117 160 1,251 145 611
Agrisource 1,187 165 1,462 170 602
Allendale 1,182 178 1,388 197 635
DC Analysis 1,198 175 1,300 185 607
Doane 1,192 170 1,375 210 600
EDF Man 1,141 190 1,198 153 614
Futures Intl 1,145 185 1,273 179 625
Grain Cycles 1,142 160 1,545 191 652
Linn Group 1,200 199 1,250 245 615
Sid Love Consulting 1,091 140 1,311 160 608
Midland Research 1,212 165 1,432 190 627
Midwest Market Solutions 1,147 144 1,129 171 586
Northstar 1,150 160 1,400 175 640
Prime Ag 1,117 160 1,400 200 627
RJOBrien 1,136 155 1,202 135 653
RMC 1,200 160 1,450 160 625
StoneX Group 1,224 164 1,487 132 619
US Commodities 1,100 175 1,018 217 579
Vantage RM 1,132 165 1,330 145 627
Western Milling 1,167 160 1,314 167 625
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,152 165 1,394 207 612

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 281.0 279.9-282.0 280.8
Soybeans 92.5 89.2-93.4 92.8
Wheat 288.6 287.0-290.0 288.8
2021-22
Average Range USDA August
Corn 285.7 281.5-290.5 284.6
Soybeans 96.9 91.2-98.7 96.2
Wheat 278.9 276.0-288.0 279.1
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 281.1 93.4 288.8 286.5 98.2 281.7
EDF Man 282.0 98.0 288.0
Futures Intl 281.5 98.0 276.0
Grain Cycles 290.5 97.0 279.0
Linn Group 285.0 97.8 277.1
Midwest Market Solutions 280.2 92.8 288.5 285.0 96.1 278.5
Northstar 281.0 93.0 287.0 286.0 96.8 278.0
Prime Ag 280.8 92.8 288.8 288.0 97.0 277.0
RMC 282.0 93.0 289.0 285.0 97.0 278.0
StoneX Group 281.7 89.2 290.0 289.7 91.2 280.6
US Commodities 279.9 92.7 288.0 283.4 97.0 277.0
Western Milling 281.3 93.0 288.8 283.0 96.5 277.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 288.2 98.7 277.9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower on big fund selling. Trends turned down on the daily charts. Traders were getting ready for the USDA production and WASDE reports to be released later today. The demand has not been seen here, so ideas of increased ending stocks are around. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 680 and 652 December. Support is at 693, 675, and 657 December, with resistance at 706, 714, and 733 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 670, 659, and 638 December. Support is at 684, 677, and 659 December, with resistance at 72697, 715, and 720 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 865, 857, and 830 December, and resistance is at 890, 9203, and 915 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed little changed yesterday as the market prepared for the USDA production and WASDE reports that will be released later today. It was a low volume day. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1308, and 1299 November, with resistance at 1348, 1358, and 1368 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was slightly lower on ideas of increasing production and less demand. The trade widely expects USDA to show improved yields in its production estimates that will be released later today, and planted area was increased yesterday Demand ideas are dropping due to less than hoped for demand at the current time and now because of the effects of Hurricane Ida. The weekly export inspections report showed how the US export pace was affected by the hurricane, but this is expected to be temporary and last only a few weeks at the most. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical power in all affected areas and it will take some time for that to get fixed. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi now have power restored and some are starting to export again. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower yesterday on speculative profit taking before the USDA reports as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News: Ethanol production rose to 923,000 barrels per day in the week ending September 3rd, from 905,000 last week, and 926,000 barrels per day last year. Ethanol stocks fell to a three-month low 20.4 million gallons in the week ending Sept. 3, from 21.1 million last week, and 19.8 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 488 December. Support is at 504, 500, and 494 December, and resistance is at 520, 530, and 543 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 485 and 468 December. Support is at 480, 467, and 459 December, and resistance is at 502, 512, and 518 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower and the products were mixed to lower as traders prepared for the USDA reports that will be released later today. FSA released the plantings reports early yesterday and Soybeans planted are was increased. The trade also looks for higher yield estimates for increased production and ending stocks. Funds were the best sellers. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but power to the export elevators has been restored. Some elevators have started to export again. Demand has held together despite the export problems but the export inspections report showed that very little is getting shipped right now as the exporters scramble to find other ports to send the grain. The weekly export sales report was also expected to be poor as many US exporters have had to pull offers for now Demand is still weaker than expected overall.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1241, 1228, and 1202 November, and resistance is at 13277, 1306, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 325.00 October. Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 328.00 October, and resistance is at 340.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to down with objectives of 5480 and 5210 October. Support is at 5480, 5420, and 5360 October, with resistance at 5730, 5850, and 6010 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on what was called speculative profit taking. Demand has shown signs of returning to the market. Exports were not strong last month and have shown improvement in the data so far this month. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower yesterday in preparation for the USDA reports and as the harvest is getting ready to start. The StatsCan report that showed more than expected ending stocks when it was released on Wednesday. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 816.00 and 804.00 November. Support is at 830.00, 823.00, and 809.00 November, with resistance at 884.00, 902.00, and 905.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4370, 4270, and 4150 November, with resistance at 4480, 4530, and 4600 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 9
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 896.50 15.00 Nov. 2021 up 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 892.70 40.00 Nov. 2021 dn 28.80
Basis: Vancouver 937.70 85.00 Nov. 2021 dn 28.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1177.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1132.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1035.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 967.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1180.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1135.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1037.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 970.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1110.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1010.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,600.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
1Sept 315.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.143)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322