About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 10, 2021 154 Sep 08, 2021
ROUGH RICE September Sep 10, 2021 12 Sep 03, 2021
WHEAT September Sep 10, 2021 12 Aug 31, 2021

DJ Brazil Trims 2020-2021 Soybean, Total Corn Crop Estimates
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab trimmed its estimates for the country’s total corn and soybean crops for the 2020-2021 growing season in its final report for the season.
Brazilian farmers produced a record 135.9 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Thursday. In August, the agency estimated a crop of 136 million tons and Brazil produced 124.8 million tons of soybeans in the 2019-2020 season.
Brazil overtook the U.S. to become the world’s biggest soybean producer in the 2019-2020 season. The USDA forecasts the South American country will retain that position in the 2021-2022 season, with Brazil growing 144 million tons of soybeans to the US’s 118.1 million tons.
Conab reduced its estimate for the 2020-2021 total corn crop to 85.7 million metric tons, down from 86.7 million tons in its August grains report. The country produced 102.6 million tons of corn in the 2019-2020 season.
Brazil’s mild winters allow its farmers to produce two corn crops per year, one in the southern hemisphere summer and then another, normally larger crop, in the winter. Drought conditions in many agricultural areas since earlier this year, along with unusually cold weather in some places, have reduced crop yields for the winter harvest, which is just finishing up.

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2021 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA August USDA 2020
Corn Production 14,897 14,667-15,116 14,750 14,182
Soybean Production 4,363 4,269-4,440 4,339 4,135
Corn Yield 175.5 172.2-177.5 174.6 172.0
Soybean Yield 50.3 49.0-51.2 50.0 50.2
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSomp North America 14,709 174.9 4,327 50.2
Agrisource 14,900 175.5 4,350 50.1
Allendale 14,975 176.3 4,338 50.1
DC Analysis 14,912 174.8 4,365 50.3
Doane 15,116 177.0 4,436 51.2
EDF Man 14,872 176.0 4,421 51.0
Futures Intl 14,777 173.6 4,367 50.2
Grain Cycles 15,053 176.8 4,345 50.2
Linn Group 14,996 176.7 4,345 50.2
Sid Love Consulting 14,784 176.0 4,300 50.0
Midland Research 14,945 175.6 4,390 50.4
Midwest Market Solution 14,787 175.0 4,367 50.4
Northstar 14,950 175.5 4,378 50.5
Prime Ag 14,960 176.0 4,404 50.5
RJOBrien 14,667 172.2 4,269 49.0
RMC 14,960 176.0 4,378 50.5
StoneX Group 15,088 177.5 4,379 50.8
US Commodities 14,728 174.3 4,440 51.2
Vantage RM 14,810 173.7 4,310 49.7
Western Milling 14,872 176.0 4,339 50.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,977 176.2 4,377 50.6

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,159 1,091-1,224 1,117
Soybeans 166 140-199 160
2021-22
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,329 1,018-1,545 1,242
Soybeans 178 132-245 155
Wheat 619 579-653 627
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,117 160 1,251 145 611
Agrisource 1,187 165 1,462 170 602
Allendale 1,182 178 1,388 197 635
DC Analysis 1,198 175 1,300 185 607
Doane 1,192 170 1,375 210 600
EDF Man 1,141 190 1,198 153 614
Futures Intl 1,145 185 1,273 179 625
Grain Cycles 1,142 160 1,545 191 652
Linn Group 1,200 199 1,250 245 615
Sid Love Consulting 1,091 140 1,311 160 608
Midland Research 1,212 165 1,432 190 627
Midwest Market Solutions 1,147 144 1,129 171 586
Northstar 1,150 160 1,400 175 640
Prime Ag 1,117 160 1,400 200 627
RJOBrien 1,136 155 1,202 135 653
RMC 1,200 160 1,450 160 625
StoneX Group 1,224 164 1,487 132 619
US Commodities 1,100 175 1,018 217 579
Vantage RM 1,132 165 1,330 145 627
Western Milling 1,167 160 1,314 167 625
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,152 165 1,394 207 612

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 281.0 279.9-282.0 280.8
Soybeans 92.5 89.2-93.4 92.8
Wheat 288.6 287.0-290.0 288.8
2021-22
Average Range USDA August
Corn 285.7 281.5-290.5 284.6
Soybeans 96.9 91.2-98.7 96.2
Wheat 278.9 276.0-288.0 279.1
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 281.1 93.4 288.8 286.5 98.2 281.7
EDF Man 282.0 98.0 288.0
Futures Intl 281.5 98.0 276.0
Grain Cycles 290.5 97.0 279.0
Linn Group 285.0 97.8 277.1
Midwest Market Solutions 280.2 92.8 288.5 285.0 96.1 278.5
Northstar 281.0 93.0 287.0 286.0 96.8 278.0
Prime Ag 280.8 92.8 288.8 288.0 97.0 277.0
RMC 282.0 93.0 289.0 285.0 97.0 278.0
StoneX Group 281.7 89.2 290.0 289.7 91.2 280.6
US Commodities 279.9 92.7 288.0 283.4 97.0 277.0
Western Milling 281.3 93.0 288.8 283.0 96.5 277.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 288.2 98.7 277.9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower as StatsCan showed higher than expected ending stocks for Wheat. The US weekly export inspections was poor once again. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 706, 705, and 693 December, with resistance at 733, 745, and 754 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 697, 6985, and 677 December, with resistance at 720, 730, and 735 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 890, 880, and 875 December, and resistance is at 915, 927, and 937 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed little changed yesterday but the price action has been weak. It was a low volume day yesterday as traders are also waiting for the UDA production reports out later this week. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1308, and 1299 November, with resistance at 1348, 1358, and 1368 November.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was slightly lower on ideas of increasing production and less demand. The trade widely expects USDA to show improved yields in its production estimates this Friday, and planted area is expected to increase as well Demand ideas are dropping due to less than hoped for demand at the current time and now because of the effects of Hurricane Ida. The weekly export inspections report showed how the US export pace was affected by the hurricane, but this is expected to be temporary and last only a few weeks. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas and it will take some time for that to get fixed. Damage assessments for the elevators is expected this week. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower yesterday on speculative profit taking as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 488 December. Support is at 507, 500, and 494 December, and resistance is at 530, 543, and 548 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 485 and 468 December. Support is at 492, 480, and 467 December, and resistance is at 502, 512, and 518 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher and the products were mixed to lower as traders prepared for the USDA reports on Friday. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas and it will take some time for that to get fixed. Damage assessments for the elevators is expected this week. Demand has held together despite the export problems but the export inspections report showed that very little is getting shipped right now as the exporters scramble to find other ports to send the grain. The weekly export sales report was also expected to be poor as many US exporters have had to pull offers for now Demand is still weaker than expected overall. USDA will release its production and supply and demand reports this week and the trade widely expects USDA to show more production due to better yields and stable to increased planted area.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1269, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1306, 1309, and 1325 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 325.00 October. Support is at 331.00, 328.00, and 325.00 October, and resistance is at 340.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5700, 5660, and 5480 October, with resistance at 5850, 6010, and 6090 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower today on what was called speculative profit taking. Demand has shown signs of returning to the market. Exports were not strong last month and have shown improvement in the data so far this month. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher yesterday as the harvest is getting ready to start. The market was higher despite the StatsCan report that showed more than expected ending stocks. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 868.00, 857.00, and 8530.00 November, with resistance at 905.00, 909.00, and 940.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4370, 41270, and 4150 November, with resistance at 4530, 4600, and 4660 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 8
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 895.10 15.00 Nov. 2021 dn 6.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 921.50 40.00 Nov. 2021 up 1.40
Basis: Vancouver 966.50 85.00 Nov. 2021 up 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1187.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1142.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1052.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 980.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1190.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1145.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1055.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 982.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1125.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1025.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
1Sept 317.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.147)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 230,655 lots, or 13.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,800 5,850 5,800 5,850 5,797 5,828 31 137 845
Nov-21 5,823 5,898 5,808 5,878 5,803 5,856 53 168,776 142,029
Jan-22 5,840 5,906 5,825 5,893 5,818 5,873 55 41,633 54,786
Mar-22 5,818 5,896 5,818 5,884 5,818 5,860 42 9,753 21,796
May-22 5,861 5,911 5,847 5,893 5,841 5,884 43 855 2,849
Jul-22 5,850 5,892 5,827 5,877 5,829 5,866 37 9,501 4,753
Corn
Turnover: 712,200 lots, or 17.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 – – – 2,550 2,550 2,550 0 0 3,768
Nov-21 2,480 2,497 2,473 2,484 2,485 2,483 -2 64,611 217,710
Jan-22 2,465 2,469 2,450 2,463 2,469 2,459 -10 577,549 897,907
Mar-22 2,483 2,488 2,471 2,483 2,490 2,479 -11 37,650 165,461
May-22 2,514 2,522 2,508 2,518 2,523 2,514 -9 22,266 59,756
Jul-22 2,526 2,533 2,521 2,529 2,535 2,527 -8 10,124 25,764
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,440,947 lots, or 49.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,786 3,786 3,753 3,772 3,840 3,773 -67 97 2,889
Nov-21 3,690 3,715 3,665 3,675 3,697 3,689 -8 52,595 102,129
Dec-21 3,621 3,632 3,587 3,596 3,631 3,610 -21 3,991 76,592
Jan-22 3,494 3,499 3,451 3,468 3,506 3,475 -31 1,120,175 1,286,089
Mar-22 3,338 3,340 3,292 3,305 3,351 3,316 -35 54,730 304,820
May-22 3,248 3,252 3,205 3,218 3,261 3,229 -32 166,671 359,286
Jul-22 3,230 3,231 3,176 3,190 3,242 3,208 -34 16,822 68,760
Aug-22 3,277 3,285 3,237 3,248 3,296 3,264 -32 25,866 32,052
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,135,255 lots, or 9.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 – – – 9,298 9,298 9,298 0 0 861
Oct-21 9,218 9,270 9,036 9,168 9,086 9,154 68 5,040 11,290
Nov-21 9,120 9,188 8,984 9,106 9,004 9,072 68 22,984 59,434
Dec-21 8,850 8,928 8,704 8,854 8,748 8,806 58 12,781 62,412
Jan-22 8,522 8,594 8,332 8,488 8,388 8,454 66 1,025,139 403,634
Feb-22 8,304 8,368 8,104 8,254 8,164 8,216 52 31,636 52,378
Mar-22 8,118 8,188 7,942 8,090 7,996 8,042 46 12,182 15,813
Apr-22 7,946 8,026 7,814 7,944 7,866 7,902 36 11,821 17,755
May-22 7,806 7,896 7,698 7,828 7,748 7,780 32 13,268 21,104
Jun-22 – – – 7,658 7,658 7,658 0 0 537
Jul-22 – – – 7,616 7,586 7,616 30 0 481
Aug-22 7,564 7,600 7,494 7,590 7,462 7,520 58 404 1,203
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,075,912 lots, or 98.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,712 9,712 9,662 9,662 9,684 9,680 -4 86 4,458
Nov-21 9,696 9,766 9,540 9,638 9,658 9,642 -16 39,164 92,233
Dec-21 9,488 9,550 9,330 9,430 9,450 9,428 -22 22,369 73,733
Jan-22 9,280 9,290 9,052 9,168 9,168 9,160 -8 931,483 474,095
Mar-22 8,862 8,908 8,692 8,786 8,798 8,780 -18 19,548 69,783
May-22 8,574 8,612 8,444 8,550 8,504 8,516 12 43,856 74,044
Jul-22 8,468 8,482 8,300 8,396 8,368 8,382 14 10,829 28,111
Aug-22 8,422 8,434 8,256 8,346 8,330 8,336 6 8,577 13,593
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322