About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower last week as a tropical system formed in the Gulf of Mexico and missed Cotton production in the Southeast and Delta for the most part. The storm brought heavy rains and a lot of damage, but mostly away from Cotton areas. Bolls are opening and fiber could be damaged. Texas growing areas were away from the storm and were not affected. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 91.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 66,543 bales, from 68,502 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 9180, 9100, and 9070 December, with resistance of 9500, 9600 and 9630 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 31, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 325,693
: Positions :
: 95,501 12,856 61,078 51,173 233,105 97,712 9,102 305,463 316,141: 20,230 9,552
: Changes from: August 24, 2021 (Change in open interest: -394) :
: -587 -791 426 -795 1,075 330 -1,439 -626 -730: 232 336
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.3 3.9 18.8 15.7 71.6 30.0 2.8 93.8 97.1: 6.2 2.9
: Total Traders: 316 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 149 42 87 55 66 48 17 280 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed near unchanged last week as Hurricane Ida came onshore in Louisiana. The storm missed all of Florida but some buying was appearing just in case. Two more tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic now but both appear headed well north of the state. Temperatures are now at or above seasonal averages in Brazil after a freeze a few weeks ago. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 137.00, 135.00, and 130.00 November, with resistance at 142.00, 144.00, and 146.00 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 31, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,145
: Positions
: 3,103 11,310 1,349 98 0 3,565 0 62 1,725 545 1,396 :: Changes from: August 24, 2021
: 131 93 -5 11 -1 225 0 -115 -131 -37 -31 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.9 80.0 9.5 0.7 0.0 25.2 0.0 0.4 12.2 3.9 9.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 16 13 4 . 0 17 0 . 22 5 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and chart patterns remain mostly up. London was the stronger market again as New York closed near the lows of the week. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country. Prices in New York have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down with smaller production. Brazil forecasts call for above normal temperatures for at least the next week, but the damage from the freeze a couple of weeks ago is easy to see. The dry weather is helping to keep the flowers from appearing. It is flowering time for the next crop. Some trees were killed and will have to be replaced. The current outlook calls for 10 days of dry weather which will not support the flowering but will keep the harvest active. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.162 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.54 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,030 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 190.00, 185.00, and 182.00 December, and resistance is at 201.00, 203.00 and 212.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2110 November. Support is at 2030, 2000, and 1950 November, and resistance is at 2090, 2120, and 2150 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 31, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 351,925
: Positions :
: 49,839 16,019 120,918 92,345 193,113 77,251 15,949 340,352 345,999: 11,573 5,926
: Changes from: August 24, 2021 (Change in open interest: 7,053) :
: 1,822 -1,354 8,348 -2,404 2,080 -285 -623 7,481 8,452: -428 -1,399
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 4.6 34.4 26.2 54.9 22.0 4.5 96.7 98.3: 3.3 1.7
: Total Traders: 425 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 163 60 137 115 121 45 21 380 295:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/31/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
132,311 44,164 74,277 7,957 10,152 1,767
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.4% 56.1% 6.0% 7.7% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 37 39 14 5 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,051 1,417 12,235 5,752 1,917 27,757
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.7% 1.1% 9.2% 4.3% 1.4% 21.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 6 15 17 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,628 2,789
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were a little lower last week as the reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. Ideas are that India can supply the missing Sugar, but the ISO has noted that this will be the second year of deficit production. Demand for Sugar has been weaker. Ideas are that the Brazil freeze hit one million hectares of Sugar area and that the world will have a deficit production for the coming year. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that the Covid is returning and could reduce economic activity and demand held sway. The market is still working through a short supply. The freeze and drought damage is there in Brazil as industry sources have said to expect a short season for processing. There is little White Sugar left in India for the export market but monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol prices are now below parity with Sugar so the interest in producing more Sugar should be increasing.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2010, 1980, and 1940 March, and resistance is at 2090, 2120, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 513.00 and 526.00 December. Support is at 499.00, 495.00, and 490.00 December, and resistance is at 513.00, 520.00, and 526.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 31, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,290,057
: Positions :
: 228,950 37,013 276,115 389,112 822,675 296,470 101,663 1,190,648 1,237,466: 99,408 52,590
: Changes from: August 24, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,448) :
: -5,331 1,931 2,813 14,042 1,338 566 1,230 12,091 7,312: -1,643 3,135
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.7 2.9 21.4 30.2 63.8 23.0 7.9 92.3 95.9: 7.7 4.1
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 27 82 80 81 42 19 241 187:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/31/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
86,175 40,321 64,886 7,421 3,681 4,451
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.8% 75.3% 8.6% 4.3% 5.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
102 35 36 10 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,997 1,777 5,774 1,327 307 1,965
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.0% 2.1% 6.7% 1.5% 0.4% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 5 12 6 5 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,919 3,334
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.9% 3.9%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week. Buying came from speculators. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year but the ICCO said that it expects a production surplus of 230,000 tons this year, from its previous estimate of 165,000 tons.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.503 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,351 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2600, 2570, and 2540 December, with resistance at 2680, 2710, and 2740 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 December, with resistance at 1810, 1840, and 1870 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 31, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 262,031
: Positions :
: 30,974 29,250 47,757 122,315 149,889 49,405 26,172 250,452 253,069: 11,579 8,962
: Changes from: August 24, 2021 (Change in open interest: 4,272) :
: -3,871 1,330 -1,445 8,063 2,271 1,355 1,733 4,102 3,889: 169 382
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 11.2 18.2 46.7 57.2 18.9 10.0 95.6 96.6: 4.4 3.4
: Total Traders: 214 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 57 69 45 42 30 16 176 153:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/31/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
330,762 210,806 248,980 26,967 17,828 13,974
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 63.7% 75.3% 8.2% 5.4% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
147 45 41 16 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
33,330 10,820 10,394 5,230 372 26,653
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
10.1% 3.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.1% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
30 15 13 14 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,408 1,741
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.5%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322