Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. July Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Sep 2
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jul 2021—- —-Jun 2021—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 121,295,853 267,457,356 124,018,314 273,460,382
coffee, roasted 8,553,175 18,859,751 8,929,803 19,690,216
instant 4,246,313 9,363,120 4,716,991 10,400,965
cocoa beans 16,240,424 35,810,135 39,206,190 86,449,649
10 lbs or over 2,519,350 5,555,167 3,014,137 6,646,172
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 5,923,474 13,061,260 8,806,407 19,418,127
not defatted 4,181,841 9,220,959 7,768,730 17,130,050
defatted 4,449,444 9,811,024 6,599,115 14,551,049
unsweetened 8,917,150 19,662,316 9,289,950 20,484,340
sweetened 1,273 2,807 40,946 90,286
coating 4,685,330 10,331,153 4,890,933 10,784,507
chocolate 12,736,374 28,083,705 11,185,419 24,663,849
General Comments: Futures were lower again as Hurricane Ida apparently missed the important production regions of the Delta and Southeast. The storm came onshore as a hurricane but weakened quickly and has turned into a tropical storm again with mostly a lot of rain for Delta and Southeast production areas and almost no weather for Texas Cotton. Showers are falling in Texas and in the Delta right now and big rains have moved north. The Southeast is also getting scattered showers after some big rains over the last couple of days. Bolls are opening and fiber could be damaged in Southeast and some Delta areas. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 90.05 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,502 bales, from 70,719 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 105,200 bales this year and 23,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 14,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 9180 and 8930 December. Support is at 9180, 9100, and 9070 December, with resistance of 9360, 9500 and 9600 December.
DJ U.S. Jul Cotton Exports-Sep 2
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jul 21 Jun 21 May 21 Jul 20
Upland, under 1 inch 6,415,077 8,894,616 13,752,536 8,655,578
1 to 1 1/8 inch 88,699,282 100,587,419 133,890,066 114,219,711
upland 1 1/8 and over 7,953,084 10,011,060 9,303,859 191,073,066
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 136,945,823 143,630,171 199,395,305 4,808,700
All cotton 240,013,266 263,123,266 356,341,766 318,757,055
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jul 21 Jun 21 May 21 Jul 20
Upland, under 1 inch 29,464 40,853 63,165 39,755
1 to 1 1/8 inch 407,392 461,994 614,952 524,607
upland 1 1/8 and over 36,528 45,980 42,732 877,591
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 628,987 659,688 915,815 22,086
All cotton 1,102,372 1,208,515 1,636,664 1,464,039
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in recovery trading. Two more tropical systems are forming in the Atlantic now but the first one does not appear to be a threat to Florida as it is too far north and will move into New England or Canada if it touches land at all. Temperatures are now at or above seasonal averages in Brazil after a freeze a few weeks ago. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 141.00, 137.00, and 135.00 November, with resistance at 146.00, 149.00, and 150.00 November
General Comments: New York was a little lower on some speculative profit taking, but London closed higher as demand shifts to Robusta from Brazil. Prices in New York have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down with smaller production. Brazil forecasts call for above normal temperatures for at least the next week, but the damage from the freeze is easy to see. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country. Shipping from Vietnam has become very expensive as a result. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.162 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 170.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,030 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 192.00, 190.00, and 185.00 December, and resistance is at 201.00, 203.00 and 212.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2110 November. Support is at 2000, 1950, and 1920 November, and resistance is at 2090, 2120, and 2150 November.
General Comments: New York was lower on ideas of weaker demand and despite the reduced production potential from Brazil. London was lower on the weak demand ideas as well. Ideas are that the Brazil freeze hit one million hectares of Sugar area and that the world will have a deficit production for the coming year. The lost production could total 6 to 7 million tons this year in Brazil. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. The market is still working through a short supply but demand has been weakening. The freeze and drought damage is there in Brazil as industry sources have said to expect a short season for processing. There is little White Sugar left in India for the export market but monsoon rains are promoting mixed conditions for the next crop as some areas are still too dry and other areas are getting a lot of rain. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ukraine is expected to increase Sugar production by a third to 1.4 million tons from an improved beet harvest. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1980 March, and resistance is at 2090, 2120, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 513.00 and 526.00 December. Support is at 499.00, 495.00, and 490.00 December, and resistance is at 513.00, 520.00, and 526.00 December.
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on weaker demand ideas. Selling came from speculators. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year but the ICCO said that it expects a production surplus of 230,000 tons this year, from its previous estimate of 165,000 tons.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.544 million bags. ICE said that 133 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,260 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2520 and 2420 December. Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2440 December, with resistance at 2550, 2580, and 2610 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1760 and 1730 December. Support is at 1710, 1700, and 1690 December, with resistance at 1780, 1810, and 1840 December.