About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 03, 2021 220 Aug 31, 2021
ROUGH RICE September Sep 03, 2021 11 Sep 01, 2021
WHEAT September Sep 03, 2021 280 Aug 27, 2021

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 2
For the week ended Aug 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 295.3 0.0 9423.3 12312.5 3995.0 0.0
hrw 146.7 0.0 3398.4 4712.6 1494.1 0.0
srw 12.7 0.0 1612.1 1088.6 738.2 0.0
hrs 64.3 0.0 2647.4 3703.3 1072.8 0.0
white 71.6 0.0 1714.8 2320.9 682.5 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 50.6 487.2 7.4 0.0
corn -300.8 1159.5 70023.3 44587.5 3321.4 20442.2
soybeans 68.2 2132.5 62228.1 47302.6 1940.7 17747.5
soymeal 17.7 396.6 12079.9 12158.9 1235.7 2058.1
soyoil 4.1 0.7 690.6 1272.9 20.3 1.4
upland cotton 105.2 23.8 5569.2 6983.2 4787.1 667.3
pima cotton 14.5 0.0 153.1 225.2 129.0 0.0
sorghum 2.4 0.0 7137.0 4637.1 226.1 1594.9
barley -0.1 0.0 25.3 39.2 21.4 0.0
rice 49.5 0.0 694.7 465.8 477.5 0.0

DJ U.S. Jul Grain Exports-Sep 2
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jul 21 Jun 21 May 21 Jul 20
Barley 1,251,000 2,089,640 810,416 6,180,000
Corn /1 5,473,110,000 6,338,104,000 8,478,561,000 4,343,711,000
Sorghum 429,499,000 195,742,000 630,646,000 361,560,000
Oats 2,207,741 5,152,551 4,271,300 3,309,254
Rye 1,168,900 989,341 619,747 1,543,800
Wheat /1 2,052,111,704 2,001,326,320 2,391,488,942 2,367,853,459
wheat flour /1 18,948,866 19,659,704 21,565,238 22,946,849
Malt 30,723,643 31,048,358 41,178,703 22,830,290
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Jul 21 Jun 21 May 21 Jul 20
Barley 57,457 95,975 37,222 283,842
Corn /1 215,464,612 249,517,572 333,782,777 171,002,593
Sorghum 16,908,455 7,705,943 24,827,182 14,233,842
Oats 152,100 354,979 294,266 227,987
Rye 46,017 38,948 24,398 60,776
Wheat /1 75,401,424 73,535,399 87,871,275 87,002,828
wheat flour /1 417,751 433,422 475,432 505,891
Malt 67,734,050 68,449,924 90,783,516 50,332,182
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. July Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Sep 2
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jul 21 Jun 21 May 21 Jul 20
soybeans 947,224,676 927,191,592 1,268,410,123 2,216,244,275
soyoil 16,358,398 41,730,624 32,661,807 74,696,500
crude 8,823,378 33,810,628 24,502,313 64,323,622
refined 181,410 132,145 143,090 65,902
other/1 7,114,779 7,440,314 7,693,591 10,097,162
hydrogenated 238,831 347,537 322,813 209,814
cottonseed oil 1,460,328 2,807,040 3,184,454 2,097,466
crude 3,373 23,149 541,815 5,470
refined 963,890 1,642,074 1,267,077 1,148,627
other/1 427,876 739,114 1,272,053 943,369
hydrogenated 65,189 402,703 103,509 0
sunseeds 46,942 67,180 343,541 39,923
sunseed oil 6,228,520 5,315,890 5,347,669 3,546,897
rapeseed 9,688,316 11,456,279 3,958,278 11,334,442
rapeseed oil 14,053,684 10,664,463 11,623,684 10,156,519
crude 6,028,913 3,988,643 5,485,495 2,813,289
refined 8,024,771 6,675,820 6,138,189 7,343,230
linseed meal 0 126,738 259,840 141,404
cottonseed meal 7,042,445 5,848,275 4,239,266 4,636,911
soymeal 694,505,587 652,458,184 722,667,723 790,828,268
soymeal/flour 264,391,249 170,526,807 209,194,319 241,385,024
soymeal hulls 22,273,000 9,601,000 21,423,000 7,915,000
lard 3,511,695 1,944,580 11,328,991 1,222,638
edible tallow 6,301,557 8,726,631 11,635,071 8,292,366
inedible tallow 19,276,670 11,785,695 12,605,472 16,320,169
ch white grease 0 0 0 23,902
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Jul 21 Jun 21 May 21 Jul 20
soybeans 34,804,192 34,068,109 46,605,616 81,432,201
soyoil 36,064,100 92,000,293 72,006,971 164,677,622
crude 19,452,222 74,539,688 54,018,363 141,809,337
refined 399,941 291,330 315,460 145,289
other/1 15,685,405 16,403,087 16,961,468 22,260,436
hydrogenated 526,532 766,188 711,681 462,561
cottonseed oil 3,219,473 6,188,465 7,020,521 4,624,122
crude 7,436 51,035 1,194,498 12,059
refined 2,125,014 3,620,154 2,793,427 2,532,290
other/1 943,305 1,629,468 2,804,397 2,079,773
hydrogenated 143,717 887,808 228,198 0
sunseeds 103,489 148,107 757,378 88,015
sunseed oil 13,731,538 11,719,533 11,789,594 7,819,571
rapeseed 21,359,084 25,256,776 8,726,511 24,988,172
rapeseed oil 30,983,075 23,511,120 25,625,841 22,391,295
crude 13,291,480 8,793,454 12,093,448 6,202,242
refined 17,691,595 14,717,666 13,532,393 16,189,054
linseed meal 0 140 286 156
cottonseed meal 7,763 6,447 4,673 5,111
soymeal 765,554 719,205 796,597 871,730
soymeal flour/me 291,438 187,972 230,595 266,079
soymeal hulls 24,552 10,583 23,615 8,725
lard 7,741,964 4,287,066 24,976,154 2,695,456
edible tallow 13,892,557 19,238,931 25,650,945 18,281,541
inedible tallow 42,497,790 25,983,014 27,790,313 35,979,820
ch white grease 0 0 0 52,695

DJ U.S. July Grain Imports-Sep 2
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Jul 2021—- —-Jun 2021—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 179,434 395,652 0 0
spring wheat 2,847,093 6,277,840 4,735,348 10,441,442
winter wheat 17,033,339 37,558,512 16,030,660 35,347,605
wheat/meslin 29,890,273 65,908,052 21,449,050 47,295,155
TOTAL WHEAT 49,950,139 110,140,056 42,215,058 93,084,203
barley 1,583,243 3,491,051 382,151 842,643
oats 383,099 844,733 390,913 861,963
corn 54,392,290 119,934,999 34,233,485 75,484,834
other corn 2,695,266 5,943,062 3,851,995 8,493,649
TOTAL CORN 57,087,556 125,878,061 38,085,480 83,978,483

DJ U.S. Jul Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Sep 2
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jul 2021—- —-Jun 2021—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 48,342,093 106,594,315 42,071,416 92,767,472
palm kernel oil 39,468,234 87,027,456 26,827,662 59,154,995
palm oil 203,410,706 448,520,607 117,328,313 258,708,930
soybean 49,802,693 109,814,938 194,217,477 428,249,537
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 14,747,371 32,517,953 11,859,074 26,149,258
rapeseed oil
edible 218,287,099 481,323,053 163,551,340 360,630,705
rapeseed oil,
inedible 33,669 74,240 38,125 84,066

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little lower in all three markets on ideas of disappointing demand. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range and trends are starting to turn down again with the weakness in Corn and Soybeans. The weather remains a big problem at home and around the world. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are now in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 699 December. Support is at 707, 705, and 693 December, with resistance at 732, 745, and 754 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 685 and 659 December. Support is at 697, 685, and 677 December, with resistance at 722, 735, and 738 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 890, 880, and 875 December, and resistance is at 910, 927, and 9537 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday. Hurricane Ida has come and gone with the focus on potential damage to crops in Mississippi. The crops in Louisiana were mostly harvested by the time the storm hit and Texas was too far west. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Harvest activities are stalled now in Louisiana and perhaps in Mississippi although Mississippi has been slow to get started anyway. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Chart trends are turning down.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1320 and 1292 November. Support is at 1308, 1299, and 1292 November, with resistance at 1341, 1348, and 1358 November

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower as speculators sold on news that Hurricane Ida damaged some export terminals on the Mississippi River in Louisiana. Reports indicate that some of the damage was extensive. Electric power has been lost and will take a few weeks to a month to be restored according to utility estimates. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as pollination is done and the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature.. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now around but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 516 and 488 December. Support is at 507, 500, and 494 December, and resistance is at 530, 543, and 548 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 545 and 581 December. Support is at 500, 492, and 480 December, and resistance is at 518, 520, and 531 December.

DJ Ethanol Production Declines — Market Talk
1122 ET – The EIA reported an expected decline in ethanol production for last week. The corn-based fuel’s production was 905,000 barrels a day, the lowest level since the week ending on June 26 2020, when it bottomed at 900,000. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower once again as speculators sold and as Hurricane Ida damaged some of the loading facilities along the Mississippi River. Exports will be interrupted for at least a few weeks, but a lot will be determined later as the flood waters recede and more exact damage assessments can be made. A lot of the infrastructure was hurt and the electrical grid has been blown down. The utility there estimates that repairs to the grid could take a few weeks to a month in some areas. Funds were the most active sellers in all three markets. China bought more shipments of Soybeans but demand is still weaker than expected overall. US weather is still a feature in the market beside the hurricane. Western and northern areas could get some showers this week, but eastern and southern areas look to stay drier. The forecast feature cooler temperatures as the week moves on. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered some production losses
Overnight News: China bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1260, 1241, and 1228 November, and resistance is at 1309, 1325, and 1339 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 335.00 and 325.00 October. Support is at 337.00, 334.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 344.00, 349.00, and 354.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5750, 5700, and 5660 October, with resistance at 6010, 6090, and 6160 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on currency considerations ad the Ringgit moved lower. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems against weaker exports. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed mixed to lower as production expectations remain low. The weakness was in the nearby months. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry in the Prairies although southern areas have been getting some very needed precipitation. Cool temperatures are forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 857.00, 830.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 905.00, 919.00, and 940.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4160, 4050, and 3970 November, with resistance at 4330, 4400, and 4430 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 1
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Sept. 1, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 920.30 25.00 Nov 21 dn 6.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 930.80 40.00 Nov 21 dn 9.50
Basis: Vancouver 975.80 85.00 Nov 21 dn 4.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1167.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1102.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1022.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 962.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1170.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1105.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1025.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 965.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1110.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1020.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,570.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
1Sept 317.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.156)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 193,762 lots, or 11.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,701 5,715 5,701 -14 20 1,107
Nov-21 5,721 5,781 5,711 5,749 5,725 5,743 18 139,012 134,997
Jan-22 5,747 5,803 5,733 5,769 5,749 5,763 14 37,500 52,279
Mar-22 5,750 5,808 5,750 5,777 5,758 5,774 16 11,437 21,138
May-22 5,800 5,841 5,791 5,808 5,802 5,809 7 667 2,335
Jul-22 5,779 5,824 5,774 5,793 5,787 5,794 7 5,126 4,476
Corn
Turnover: 985,042 lots, or 24.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,498 2,578 2,498 2,578 2,518 2,527 9 1,233 9,256
Nov-21 2,475 2,517 2,471 2,509 2,480 2,489 9 102,223 258,803
Jan-22 2,463 2,510 2,457 2,495 2,474 2,480 6 773,320 809,534
Mar-22 2,483 2,526 2,476 2,512 2,494 2,493 -1 54,217 134,358
May-22 2,520 2,559 2,510 2,543 2,526 2,532 6 24,055 47,837
Jul-22 2,529 2,562 2,519 2,554 2,536 2,537 1 29,994 20,638
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,526,666 lots, or 5.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,694 3,718 3,687 3,718 3,694 3,697 3 1,415 9,985
Nov-21 3,662 3,712 3,655 3,701 3,659 3,681 22 85,277 103,916
Dec-21 3,582 3,637 3,567 3,624 3,577 3,587 10 34,315 76,983
Jan-22 3,491 3,520 3,460 3,504 3,495 3,485 -10 1,126,822 1,204,639
Mar-22 3,354 3,359 3,322 3,351 3,355 3,344 -11 81,774 305,798
May-22 3,255 3,268 3,239 3,257 3,261 3,254 -7 140,449 308,249
Jul-22 3,240 3,253 3,223 3,238 3,245 3,237 -8 40,782 69,679
Aug-22 3,301 3,311 3,279 3,298 3,311 3,294 -17 15,832 30,577
Palm Oil
Turnover: 903,031 lots, or 72.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 8,800 8,800 8,764 8,790 8,940 8,788 -152 62 1,682
Oct-21 8,780 8,832 8,694 8,772 8,870 8,762 -108 31,060 35,550
Nov-21 8,572 8,656 8,512 8,636 8,678 8,594 -84 22,170 67,852
Dec-21 8,352 8,398 8,262 8,358 8,552 8,342 -210 26,740 59,643
Jan-22 8,026 8,092 7,962 8,016 8,134 8,030 -104 772,998 372,119
Feb-22 7,896 7,896 7,756 7,824 7,952 7,838 -114 16,992 32,988
Mar-22 7,700 7,740 7,604 7,676 7,788 7,684 -104 11,102 11,482
Apr-22 7,656 7,656 7,500 7,582 7,658 7,596 -62 11,935 12,354
May-22 7,452 7,530 7,402 7,482 7,568 7,476 -92 9,924 15,430
Jun-22 7,372 7,422 7,328 7,402 7,574 7,376 -198 10 36
Jul-22 7,350 7,366 7,304 7,366 7,462 7,312 -150 15 488
Aug-22 7,280 7,320 7,220 7,320 7,368 7,274 -94 23 23
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 856,472 lots, or 76.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,296 9,360 9,250 9,360 9,358 9,284 -74 420 6,025
Nov-21 9,200 9,376 9,180 9,346 9,242 9,274 32 56,119 104,924
Dec-21 9,130 9,206 9,076 9,178 9,166 9,134 -32 35,257 80,203
Jan-22 8,922 8,968 8,850 8,910 8,984 8,910 -74 701,597 443,895
Mar-22 8,670 8,670 8,540 8,596 8,698 8,606 -92 20,462 61,031
May-22 8,330 8,386 8,258 8,318 8,432 8,330 -102 24,413 55,606
Jul-22 8,194 8,212 8,102 8,162 8,262 8,162 -100 12,920 22,576
Aug-22 8,150 8,192 8,072 8,126 8,246 8,130 -116 5,284 8,812
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322