Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower as Hurricane Ida apparently missed the important production regions of the Delta and Southeast. The storm came onshore as a hurricane but weakened quickly and has turned into a tropical storm again with mostly a lot of rain for Delta and Southeast production areas and almost no weather for Texas Cotton. Showers are falling in Texas and in the Delta right now and big rains have moved north. The Southeast is also getting scattered showers after some big rains over the last couple of days. Bolls are opening and fiber could be damaged. Big winds could blow bolls off of the plants but the big winds are located near the coast and not inland. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 90.05 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 70,719 bales, from 70,719 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 9180 and 8930 December. Support is at 9240, 9180, and 9100 December, with resistance of 9360, 96500 and 9600 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again yesterday as Ida came on shore in the Gulf as a hurricane but did no damage to Florida or any crops in the state. The storm went into Louisiana and Mississippi and then to the northeast instead. Two more tropical systems are forming in the Atlantic now but the first one does not appear to be a threat to Florida as it is too far north and will move into New England or Canada if it touches land at all. Temperatures are now at or above seasonal averages in Brazil after a freeze a few weeks ago. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 135.00, 130.00, and 128.00 November, with resistance at 142.00, 146.00, and 149.00 November
General Comments: New York was lower on some speculative profit taking, but London closed higher playing catch up with New York and chart patterns remain mostly up. Prices in New York have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down with smaller production. Brazil forecasts call for above normal temperatures for at least the next week, but the damage from the freeze is easy to see. The dry weather is helping to keep the flowers from appearing. Some trees were killed and will have to be replaced. The current outlook calls for 10 days of dry weather which will not support the flowering but will keep the harvest active. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country. Shipping from Vietnam has become very expensive as a result. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 2.165 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.92 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,030 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 192.00, 190.00, and 185.00 December, and resistance is at 203.00, 212.00 and 218.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2110 November. Support is at 2000, 1950, and 1920 November, and resistance is at 2070, 2090, and 2120 November.
General Comments: New York was lower on ideas of weaker demand and despite the reduced production potential from Brazil. London was lower on the weak demand ideas as well. Ideas are that the Brazil freeze hit one million hectares of Sugar area and that the world will have a deficit production for the coming year. The lost production could total 6 to 7 million tons this year in Brazil. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that the Covid is returning and could reduce economic activity and demand held sway. The market is still working through a short supply. The freeze and drought damage is there in Brazil as industry sources have said to expect a short season for processing. There is little White Sugar left in India for the export market but monsoon rains are promoting mixed conditions for the next crop as some areas are still too dry and other areas are getting a lot of rain. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1980 March, and resistance is at 2090, 2120, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 513.00 and 526.00 December. Support is at 499.00, 495.00, and 490.00 December, and resistance is at 513.00, 520.00, and 526.00 December.
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on weaker demand ideas. Selling came from speculators. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.544 million bags. ICE said that 133 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,260 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2520 and 2420 December. Support is at 2530, 2470, and 2440 December, with resistance at 2580, 2610, and 2630 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1760 and 1730 December. Support is at 1710, 1700, and 1690 December, with resistance at 1780, 1810, and 1840 December.