About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 02, 2021 136 Aug 30, 2021
ROUGH RICE September Sep 02, 2021 47 Aug 31, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 02, 2021 103 Aug 20, 2021
OATS September Sep 02, 2021 6 Aug 12, 2021
WHEAT September Sep 02, 2021 419 Aug 23, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little lower in Minneapolis and mixed in Chicago markets on ideas of disappointing demand. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range. The weather remains a big problem at home and around the world. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers and cooler temperature this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are now in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 719, 707, and 705 December, with resistance at 732, 745, and 754 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 709, 700, and 699 December, with resistance at 722, 735, and 738 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 902, 899, and 894 December, and resistance is at 927, 937, and 950 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again yesterday. Hurricane Ida has come and gone with the focus on potential damage to crops in Mississippi. The crops in Louisiana were mostly harvested by the time the storm hit and Texas was too far west. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Harvest activities are stalled now in Louisiana and perhaps in Mississippi although Mississippi has been slow to get started anyway. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Chart trends are sideways.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1329, 1308, and 1299 November, with resistance at 1348, 1358, and 1368 November

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 1
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.13 9.63 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.12 9.67 0.00
Brokens 9.60 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower as speculators sold on news that Hurricane Ida came onshore in Louisiana and damaged some export terminals on the Mississippi River. Reports indicate that some of the damage was extensive. Electric power has been lost and will take a month to be restored according to utility estimates. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as pollination is done and the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature.. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower in sympathy with Corn as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now around but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 516 and 488 December. Support is at 524, 507, and 500 December, and resistance is at 548, 558, and 566 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 492, 480, and 467 December, and resistance is at 510, 518, and 520 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower once again as speculators sold and as Hurricane Ida came and went and damaged some of the loading facilities along the Mississippi River. Exports will be interrupted for at least a few weeks, but a lot will be determined later as the flood waters recede and more exact damage assessments can be made. A lot of the infrastructure was hurt and the electrical grid has been blown down. The utility there estimates that repairs to the grid could take a month in some areas. Funds were the most active sellers in all three markets. China bought more shipments of Soybeans but demand is still weaker than expected overall. US weather is still a feature in the market beside the hurricane. Western and northern areas could get some showers this week, but eastern and southern areas look to stay drier. The forecast feature cooler temperatures as the week moves on. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered some production losses
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1277, 1260, and 1241 November, and resistance is at 1325, 1339, and 1361 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 343.00, 340.00, and 337.00 October, and resistance is at 349.00, 354.00, and 358.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5760, 5700, and 5660 October, with resistance at 6090, 6160, and 6290 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on reduced export demand as reported by the private sources.. Exports so far this month have not been strong. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed mixed to lower as production expectations remain low. The weakness was in the nearby months. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry in the Prairies although southern areas have been getting some very needed precipitation. Cool temperatures are forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 857.00, 830.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 919.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4160, 4050, and 3970 November, with resistance at 4400, 4430, and 4530 November.

DJ Malaysia Aug. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports Down 17.8%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Aug. 1-31 period are estimated down 17.8% on month at 1,191,053 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-31 July 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 284,490 410,310
RBD Palm Oil 68,440 101,275
RBD Palm Stearin 103,659 115,621
Crude Palm Oil 275,298 308,328
Total* 1,191,053 1,448,483
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included

DJ Malaysia Aug. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,219,166 Tons, Down 15%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Aug. 1-31 period are estimated to be 15% lower on month at 1,219,166 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-31 July 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 313,470 392,098
RBD Palm Oil 79,158 93,817
RBD Palm Stearin 102,627 128,731
Crude Palm Oil 296,566 330,628
Total* 1,219,166 1,427,997
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 31
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Aug. 31, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 926.60 25.00 Nov 21 dn 11.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 940.30 45.00 Nov 21 dn 6.30
Basis: Vancouver 980.30 85.00 Nov 21 dn 6.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1157.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1097.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1007.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 950.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1160.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1100.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1010.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 952.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1105.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1015.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,530.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
1Sept 314.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.152)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,661 lots, or 9.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,710 5,848 5,698 5,701 5,727 5,715 -12 101 1,097
Nov-21 5,742 5,764 5,704 5,711 5,742 5,725 -17 111,886 134,316
Jan-22 5,772 5,783 5,730 5,733 5,758 5,749 -9 31,192 51,468
Mar-22 5,759 5,786 5,740 5,740 5,759 5,758 -1 11,541 20,906
May-22 5,792 5,828 5,782 5,782 5,804 5,802 -2 489 2,178
Jul-22 5,808 5,815 5,762 5,762 5,788 5,787 -1 3,452 4,251
Corn
Turnover: 726,337 lots, or 18.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,533 2,533 2,480 2,505 2,533 2,518 -15 1,735 10,404
Nov-21 2,493 2,493 2,470 2,472 2,489 2,480 -9 92,152 279,262
Jan-22 2,486 2,486 2,462 2,463 2,483 2,474 -9 544,967 866,107
Mar-22 2,508 2,508 2,482 2,483 2,502 2,494 -8 45,894 132,894
May-22 2,535 2,535 2,517 2,518 2,536 2,526 -10 15,464 43,858
Jul-22 2,548 2,548 2,526 2,528 2,547 2,536 -11 26,125 20,552
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,169,958 lots, or 40.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,700 3,737 3,657 3,692 3,700 3,694 -6 5,091 11,797
Nov-21 3,668 3,677 3,641 3,670 3,652 3,659 7 72,300 103,483
Dec-21 3,580 3,593 3,563 3,587 3,580 3,577 -3 31,167 75,316
Jan-22 3,506 3,516 3,479 3,491 3,504 3,495 -9 827,234 1,241,813
Mar-22 3,369 3,375 3,338 3,351 3,368 3,355 -13 88,645 313,973
May-22 3,278 3,284 3,247 3,258 3,281 3,261 -20 102,383 312,285
Jul-22 3,268 3,273 3,226 3,233 3,278 3,245 -33 33,238 69,684
Aug-22 3,326 3,337 3,293 3,295 3,334 3,311 -23 9,900 27,228
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,069,815 lots, or 87.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,100 9,100 8,838 8,838 9,022 8,940 -82 529 1,744
Oct-21 8,908 8,986 8,758 8,780 8,908 8,870 -38 51,471 46,056
Nov-21 8,766 8,806 8,566 8,592 8,758 8,678 -80 29,075 69,985
Dec-21 8,906 8,906 8,332 8,352 8,526 8,552 26 46,464 66,785
Jan-22 8,246 8,282 8,040 8,054 8,240 8,134 -106 897,153 374,272
Feb-22 8,118 8,118 7,858 7,862 8,062 7,952 -110 14,778 24,107
Mar-22 7,920 7,958 7,702 7,714 7,916 7,788 -128 12,636 9,823
Apr-22 7,818 7,836 7,580 7,604 7,806 7,658 -148 5,951 6,680
May-22 7,746 7,752 7,474 7,494 7,736 7,568 -168 11,751 14,398
Jun-22 7,664 7,664 7,484 7,484 7,630 7,574 -56 2 32
Jul-22 – – – 7,462 7,608 7,462 -146 0 480
Aug-22 7,422 7,422 7,322 7,322 7,574 7,368 -206 5 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 915,956 lots, or 82.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,346 9,454 9,300 9,312 9,346 9,358 12 1,695 6,443
Nov-21 9,300 9,312 9,188 9,240 9,272 9,242 -30 58,299 103,760
Dec-21 9,204 9,242 9,108 9,148 9,204 9,166 -38 40,037 78,900
Jan-22 9,060 9,086 8,924 8,940 9,058 8,984 -74 759,009 449,607
Mar-22 8,704 8,804 8,624 8,634 8,788 8,698 -90 24,521 57,631
May-22 8,546 8,556 8,354 8,360 8,546 8,432 -114 21,146 51,766
Jul-22 8,384 8,402 8,190 8,198 8,384 8,262 -122 7,061 18,934
Aug-22 8,364 8,364 8,156 8,162 8,364 8,246 -118 4,188 7,032
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322