Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower as a tropical system formed in the Gulf of Mexico and could hurt Cotton production in the Southeast and Delta this week. The storm came onshore as a hurricane but weakened quickly and has turned into a tropical storm again with mostly a lot of rain for Delta and Southeast production areas and almost no weather for Texas Cotton. Showers are falling in Texas and in the Delta right now and big rains are reported in the southern Delta. The Southeast is also getting scattered showers with big rains along the Coastal areas of the south. Bolls are opening and fiber could be damaged. Big winds could blow bolls off of the plants but the big winds are located near the coast and not inland. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 91.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 70,719 bales, from 74,317 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 9340, 9240, and 9180 December, with resistance of 9500, 9600 and 9670 December.
Date 29-Aug 22-Aug 2020 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 86 79 92 94
Cotton Bolls Opening 21 14 28 26
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 5 24 55 15
Cotton Last Week 1 5 23 53 16
Cotton Last Year 15 13 28 35 9
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday as Ida came on shore in the Gulf as a hurricane but did no damage to Florida or any crops in the state. The storm went into Louisiana and Mississippi instead. Two more tropical systems are forming in the Atlantic now. Temperatures are now at or above seasonal averages in Brazil after a freeze a few weeks ago. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 138.00, 135.00, and 130.00 November, with resistance at 146.00, 149.00, and 150.00 November
General Comments: New York shot sharply higher with London closed and chart patterns remain mostly up. Prices in New York have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down with smaller production. Brazil forecasts call for above normal temperatures for at least the next week, but the damage from the freeze a couple of weeks ago is easy to see. The dry weather is helping to keep the flowers from appearing. It is flowering time for the next crop. Some trees were killed and will have to be replaced. The current outlook calls for 10 days of dry weather which will not support the flowering but will keep the harvest active. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.166 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 172.08 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,030 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 192.00, 190.00, and 185.00 December, and resistance is at 203.00, 212.00 and 218.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2050 and 2110 November. Support is at 2000, 1950, and 1920 November, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2120 November.
General Comments: New York was higher as the reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. London was closed for a holiday. Ideas are that the Brazil freeze hit one million hectares of Sugar area and that the world will have a deficit production for the coming year. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that the Covid is returning and could reduce economic activity and demand held sway. The market is still working through a short supply. The freeze and drought damage is there in Brazil as industry sources have said to expect a short season for processing. There is little White Sugar left in India for the export market but monsoon rains are promoting mixed conditions for the next crop as some areas are still too dry and other areas are getting a lot of rain. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2090 and 2130 March. Support is at 2040, 2010, and 1980 March, and resistance is at 2090, 2120, and 2150 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 513.00 and 526.00 December. Support is at 499.00, 495.00, and 490.00 December, and resistance is at 511.00, 520.00, and 526.00 December.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London was closed for a holiday. Buying came from speculators. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.557 million bags. ICE said that 30 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,147 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2580, 2540, and 2530 December, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2680 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1750, and 1710 December, with resistance at 1800, 1810, and 1840 December.