About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 29-Aug 22-Aug 2020 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 86 79 92 94
Cotton Bolls Opening 21 14 28 26
Corn Dough 91 85 93 89
Corn Dented 59 41 60 55
Corn Mature 9 4 12 10
Soybreans Setting Pods 93 88 95 92
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 9 3 7 7
Sorghum Headed 95 90 95 93
Sorghum Coloring 59 44 56 56
Sorghum Mature 23 20 24 28
Sorghum Harvested 18 21 20
Rice Headed 97 93 96 98
Rice Harvested 19 14 20 22
Oats Harvested 92 87 90 89
Spring Wheat Harvested 88 77 66 71
Barley Harvested 85 72 71 78

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 5 24 55 15
Cotton Last Week 1 5 23 53 16
Cotton Last Year 15 13 28 35 9

Corn This Week 4 10 26 46 14
Corn Last Week 4 10 26 46 14
Corn Last Year 5 9 24 48 14

Soybeans This Week 5 10 29 45 11
Soybeans Last Week 5 11 28 45 11
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 24 53 13

Rice This Week 1 2 20 62 15
Rice Last Week 1 3 19 61 16
Rice Last Year 1 3 20 59 17

Sorghum This Week 3 9 30 49 9
Sorghum Last Week 2 8 28 52 10
Sorghum Last Year 6 12 32 39 11

Peanuts This Week 1 2 21 64 12
Peanuts Last Week 1 2 22 63 12
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 19 62 14

Pasture and Range This Week 21 23 28 23 5
Pasture and Range Last Week 22 21 28 23 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 18 28 32 19 3

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 30
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 30, 2021 USDA Market News
*CORRECTIONS AT BOTTOM OF REPORT ARE INCLUDED IN CURRENT MARKET YEAR TO DATE*
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 26, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/26/2021 08/19/2021 08/27/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 173 1,270 6,550 3,731
CORN 562,549 745,303 423,765 65,755,115 41,895,751
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 317
MIXED 0 0 0 48 0
OATS 0 0 100 100 900
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 74,186 128,581 162,996 7,101,350 4,964,788
SOYBEANS 377,341 239,957 820,655 59,278,994 43,234,627
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 316,844 729,288 535,415 6,051,848 6,768,081
Total 1,330,920 1,843,302 1,944,201 138,194,269 96,868,195
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 01, 2021 236 Aug 27, 2021
ROUGH RICE September Sep 01, 2021 382 Aug 30, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 01, 2021 122 Aug 18, 2021
OATS September Sep 01, 2021 47 Aug 11, 2021
WHEAT September Sep 01, 2021 1,000 Aug 20, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower on ideas of disappointing demand. The export inspections report released yesterday showed Wheat export demand was below trade expectations. Statscan released its production estimates and showed less Wheat production, but slightly more than the trade had expected. The weekly export sales was poor last week. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range. The weather remains a big problem at home and around the world. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers and cooler temperature this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are now in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 719, 705, and 693 December, with resistance at 732, 745, and 754 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 709, 700, and 6785 December, with resistance at 722, 735, and 738 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 902, 899, and 880 December, and resistance is at 927, 937, and 950 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday and spreads between September and November were the most active trade. Hurricane Ida came onshore and could hurt crops in Mississippi. The crops in Louisiana were mostly harvested by the time the storm hit. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Harvest activities are stalled now in Louisiana and perhaps in Mississippi although Mississippi has been slow to get started anyway. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Chart trends are sideways.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1329, and 1308 November, with resistance at 1348, 1358, and 1368 November

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower as speculators sold due to liquidation of September positions and the fact that Hurricane Ida came onshore in Louisiana and damaged some export terminals on the Mississippi River. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as pollination is done and the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the northern and western belt. The eastern and southern belt should stay warm and dry but the north should be cooler and with a few showers. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher last week as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now around but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 537, 530, and 524 December, and resistance is at 558, 566, and 588 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 510, 505, and 492 December, and resistance is at 525, 5231, and 538 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower as speculators liquidated long September positions before First Notice Day today and as Hurricane Ida came onshore in Louisiana and damaged some of the loading facilities along the Mississippi River. Exports will be interrupted for at least a few days. Funds were the most active sellers in all three markets. China bought more shipments of Soybeans but demand is still weaker than expected overall. US weather is still a feature in the market beside the hurricane. Western and northern areas could get some showers this week, but eastern and southern areas look to stay drier. The forecast feature cooler temperatures as the week moves on. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered some production losses
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1287, 1277, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 13625, 1339, and 1361 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 343.00, 340.00, and 337.00 October, and resistance is at 349.00, 354.00, and 358.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5860, 5830, and 5700 October, with resistance at 6090, 6160, and 6290 October

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Exports so far this month have not been strong. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed lower as production expectations remain low. Statscan released its production estimates and those were above trade expectations. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry in the Prairies although southern areas have been getting some very needed precipitation. Cool temperatures are forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 884.00, 867.00, and 850.00 November, with resistance at 919.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4160, 4050, and 3970 November, with resistance at 4400, 4430, and 4530 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 30
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Aug. 30, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 937.70 25.00 Nov 21 dn 1.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 946.60 45.00 Nov 21 dn 11.10
Basis: Vancouver 986.60 85.00 Nov 21 dn 11.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 156,686 lots, or 9.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,750 5,787 5,705 5,730 5,778 5,727 -51 1,732 3,060
Nov-21 5,762 5,776 5,709 5,749 5,814 5,742 -72 107,754 130,171
Jan-22 5,768 5,785 5,734 5,775 5,815 5,758 -57 33,891 48,436
Mar-22 5,757 5,783 5,741 5,776 5,805 5,759 -46 9,243 19,370
May-22 5,807 5,833 5,782 5,825 5,842 5,804 -38 537 2,094
Jul-22 5,797 5,811 5,768 5,805 5,821 5,788 -33 3,529 3,949
Corn
Turnover: 477,499 lots, or 1.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,553 2,560 2,513 2,517 2,564 2,533 -31 18,959 12,786
Nov-21 2,485 2,497 2,481 2,493 2,491 2,489 -2 56,831 288,929
Jan-22 2,485 2,490 2,476 2,487 2,481 2,483 2 328,320 807,879
Mar-22 2,502 2,507 2,496 2,507 2,500 2,502 2 37,354 130,046
May-22 2,538 2,551 2,531 2,536 2,538 2,536 -2 13,586 42,259
Jul-22 2,550 2,555 2,543 2,549 2,552 2,547 -5 22,449 22,677
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,266,223 lots, or 44.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,892 3,892 3,630 3,732 3,638 3,700 62 24,489 16,285
Nov-21 3,660 3,711 3,620 3,672 3,641 3,652 11 71,224 102,409
Dec-21 3,596 3,613 3,550 3,597 3,577 3,580 3 15,980 84,404
Jan-22 3,525 3,531 3,481 3,517 3,522 3,504 -18 962,111 1,210,945
Mar-22 3,388 3,391 3,346 3,377 3,379 3,368 -11 56,919 359,088
May-22 3,302 3,305 3,265 3,286 3,300 3,281 -19 102,606 301,867
Jul-22 3,295 3,297 3,260 3,277 3,293 3,278 -15 22,069 77,509
Aug-22 3,347 3,360 3,315 3,339 3,346 3,334 -12 10,825 28,036
Palm Oil
Turnover: 882,098 lots, or 73.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 8,850 9,140 8,850 9,100 8,960 9,022 62 10,666 2,247
Oct-21 8,892 8,998 8,806 8,992 8,974 8,908 -66 44,066 70,831
Nov-21 8,712 8,826 8,646 8,818 8,776 8,758 -18 13,145 80,363
Dec-21 8,462 8,594 8,422 8,584 8,540 8,526 -14 19,963 81,682
Jan-22 8,174 8,326 8,134 8,306 8,282 8,240 -42 767,937 388,221
Feb-22 8,000 8,156 7,938 8,136 8,112 8,062 -50 9,358 16,564
Mar-22 7,874 8,002 7,802 7,986 7,978 7,916 -62 7,020 9,197
Apr-22 7,778 7,876 7,714 7,866 7,872 7,806 -66 4,315 6,816
May-22 7,706 7,784 7,654 7,776 7,808 7,736 -72 5,625 14,863
Jun-22 7,632 7,632 7,630 7,630 7,802 7,630 -172 2 30
Jul-22 7,608 7,608 7,608 7,608 7,646 7,608 -38 1 480
Aug-22 – – – 7,574 7,574 7,574 0 0 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 808,996 lots, or 73.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,240 9,484 9,240 9,474 9,372 9,346 -26 9,216 9,525
Nov-21 9,274 9,358 9,186 9,344 9,336 9,272 -64 50,640 108,212
Dec-21 9,238 9,294 9,128 9,276 9,266 9,204 -62 23,049 89,536
Jan-22 8,990 9,144 8,966 9,120 9,092 9,058 -34 699,981 476,103
Mar-22 8,776 8,858 8,710 8,852 8,838 8,788 -50 8,750 67,796
May-22 8,500 8,602 8,462 8,582 8,584 8,546 -38 8,748 45,323
Jul-22 8,374 8,452 8,324 8,432 8,454 8,384 -70 4,801 15,797
Aug-22 8,350 8,420 8,296 8,392 8,422 8,364 -58 3,811 5,094
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322