About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher last week as a tropical system formed in the Gulf of Mexico and could hurt Cotton production in the Southeast and Delta this week. Positive news was seen on Friday when Cotlook estimated the world production estimate at 286,000 tons, from 241,000 tons in July. The change came in response to less production in India due to monsoon problems and a slight increase in demand. Showers are falling in Texas and in the Delta right now and big rains are reported in the southern Delta. The Southeast is also getting scattered showers with big rains along the Coastal areas of the south. Bolls are opening and fiber could be damaged. Big winds could blow bolls off of the plants. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 92.41 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 74,317 bales, from 76,321 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 9240, 9180, and 9100 December, with resistance of 9600, 9670 and 9720 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 24, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 326,087
: Positions :
: 96,087 13,647 60,652 51,968 232,030 97,382 10,542 306,089 316,871: 19,998 9,216
: Changes from: August 17, 2021 (Change in open interest: -1,328) :
: 1,447 4,216 -2,863 1,554 -2,833 739 -423 878 -1,902: -2,206 574
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.5 4.2 18.6 15.9 71.2 29.9 3.2 93.9 97.2: 6.1 2.8
: Total Traders: 321 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 150 44 89 56 66 48 17 286 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week as a ewe tropical storm has formed and appears headed for the Gulf of Mexico. The storm missed most if not all of Florida but some buying was appearing just in case. Two more tropical systems are forming in the Atlantic now. Temperatures are now at or above seasonal averages in Brazil after a freeze a few weeks ago. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 139.00, 135.00, and 131.00 September, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 156.00 September

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 24, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,498 :
: Positions :
: 2,971 11,217 1,354 87 1 3,340 0 177 1,856 582 1,427 :
: Changes from: August 17, 2021 :
: -192 499 -16 -99 1 289 -94 90 294 -4 -543 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.5 77.4 9.3 0.6 0.0 23.0 0.0 1.2 12.8 4.0 9.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :
: 16 13 4 . . 16 0 . 21 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and chart patterns remain mostly up. London was the stronger market again. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country. Prices in New York have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down with smaller production. Brazil forecasts call for above normal temperatures for at least the next week, but the damage from the freeze a couple of weeks ago is easy to see. The dry weather is helping to keep the flowers from appearing. It is flowering time for the next crop. Some trees were killed and will have to be replaced. The current outlook calls for 10 days of dry weather which will not support the flowering but will keep the harvest active. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.166 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 165.56 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,030 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 189.00 and 195.00 December. Support is at 185.00, 182.00, and 178.00 December, and resistance is at 203.00, 212.00 and 218.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2050 and 2110 November. Support is at 2000, 1950, and 1920 November, and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2120 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 24, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 344,873
: Positions :
: 48,017 17,373 112,570 94,749 191,033 77,536 16,572 332,871 337,547: 12,001 7,325
: Changes from: August 17, 2021 (Change in open interest: 1,328) :
: 681 532 2,727 -1,276 -2,633 -861 212 1,272 838: 56 490
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.9 5.0 32.6 27.5 55.4 22.5 4.8 96.5 97.9: 3.5 2.1
: Total Traders: 417 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 155 65 131 111 121 45 21 369 290:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/24/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
126,652 42,563 71,847 8,600 7,714 1,744
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.6% 56.7% 6.8% 6.1% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 42 40 14 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,818 2,220 13,262 7,006 2,324 24,891
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.0% 1.8% 10.5% 5.5% 1.8% 19.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 7 16 16 7 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,768 2,650
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week as the reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. Demand for Sugar has been weaker. Ideas are that the Brazil freeze hit one million hectares of Sugar area and that the world will have a deficit production for the coming year. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that the Covid is returning and could reduce economic activity and demand held sway. The market is still working through a short supply. The freeze and drought damage is there in Brazil as industry sources have said to expect a short season for processing. There is little White Sugar left in India for the export market but monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic, but renewed Ethanol demand is now in doubt with weaker Crude Oil futures and covid pandemic fears as the Delta variant spreads.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2050 and 2090 October. Support is at 1930, 1890, and 1840 October, and resistance is at 2000, 2040, and 2060 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 494.00, 502.00, and 509.00 October. Support is at 478.00, 474.00, and 470.00 October, and resistance is at 491.00, 501.00, and 510.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 24, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,279,609
: Positions :
: 234,281 35,082 273,302 375,070 821,337 295,904 100,433 1,178,557 1,230,154: 101,051 49,455
: Changes from: August 17, 2021 (Change in open interest: 25,406) :
: -157 2,165 8,062 15,232 3,618 1,453 7,245 24,590 21,091: 816 4,315
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.3 2.7 21.4 29.3 64.2 23.1 7.8 92.1 96.1: 7.9 3.9
: Total Traders: 261 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 28 82 79 80 42 20 242 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/24/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
88,638 42,684 68,213 8,064 4,297 4,060
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 48.2% 77.0% 9.1% 4.8% 4.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
104 35 37 9 6 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,915 1,509 5,465 1,966 355 1,627
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.3% 1.7% 6.2% 2.2% 0.4% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 5 13 5 5 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,857 3,112
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.6% 3.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week. Buying came from speculators. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain. Some are forecasting less production in the coming year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.596 million bags. ICE said that 124 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,117 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2580, 2540, and 2530 December, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2680 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1750, and 1710 December, with resistance at 1800, 1810, and 1840 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 24, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 257,759
: Positions :
: 34,845 27,920 49,202 114,252 147,618 48,050 24,439 246,349 249,179: 11,410 8,580
: Changes from: August 17, 2021 (Change in open interest: 3,929) :
: -4,411 -1,250 2,224 7,832 2,915 -1,922 255 3,723 4,144: 206 -215
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 10.8 19.1 44.3 57.3 18.6 9.5 95.6 96.7: 4.4 3.3
: Total Traders: 214 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 61 70 44 40 30 16 179 150:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/24/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
344,343 219,974 250,659 25,472 20,947 15,044
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 63.9% 72.8% 7.4% 6.1% 4.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 48 39 15 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
29,271 8,898 11,239 5,732 591 34,937
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.5% 2.6% 3.3% 1.7% 0.2% 10.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
30 15 11 15 13 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,674 2,028
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322