About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ IGC Slashes Harvest Forecasts For Second Month in a Row
By Will Horner
The International Grains Council cut its forecasts for world total grains production in the 2021-22 season by 12 million metric tons Thursday.
The intergovernmental body said grain production next year would total 2.283 billion tons, compared to the 2.295 billion tons it forecast last month, largely due to downgrades to Canadian, U.S. and Russian harvests.
The body also downgraded its forecasts for global grains consumption by 7 million tons. The IGC said grain demand would stand at 2.288 billion tons.
It is the second time in two months that the body has slashed its forecasts for global harvests. Last month the IGC said excessively dry weather in North America was responsible for its shrinking expectations of what crops will yield.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher on stronger European futures and despite ideas of increasing demand potential as world prices rallied on short supplies, especially in Russia. The weekly export sales was poor but did not matter much to the traders. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 704, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 732, 735, and 756 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 695, 688, and 678 September, with resistance at 735, 756, and 764 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 905, 891, and 888 September, and resistance is at 936, 954, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower with spreads between September and November still the most active trade. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Chart trends are sideways.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1318, 1308, and 1294 September, with resistance at 1344, 1355, and 1358 September

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was a little higher on speculative buying. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as pollination is done and the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the western belt. The eastern belt should stay warm and dry. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. Some showers are in the forecast for the west but it is still hot. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower in correction trading as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News: Colombia bought 150,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 544, 537, and 531 September, and resistance is at 557, 561, and 575 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 494, 489, and 475 September, and resistance is at 522, 526, and 532 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday but Soybean Meal was higher. Funds were the most active traders in all three markets. The market got sold out earlier in the week. China bought another two shipments of Soybeans on Monday but demand is still weaker than expected overall. Demand threats mostly surfaced late in the week and were caused by reports that the EPA was about to submit to the White House new bio fuels blending requirements that could call for less bio fuels demand. Crude Oil was up a lot again yesterday, so Soybean Oil was able to rally again. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Western areas could get some showers this week, but eastern areas look to stay drier. And will feature warm temperatures as well. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered some production losses
Overnight News: China bought 129,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1312, 1296, and 1281 September, and resistance is at 1388, 1392, and 1410 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 341.00 September, and resistance is at 359.00, 364.00, and 365.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5870, 5710, and 5440 September, with resistance at 6200, 6320, and 6440 September

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little lower on some long liquidation before the weekend. Exports so far this month have not been strong but the market is concerned about production due to worker shortages in Malaysia. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed a little lower on price action in Chicago and despite stressful crop growing conditions in the Prairies. It has been a hot and dry Summer to date but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 884.00, 867.00, and 850.00 November, with resistance at 920.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4160, 4050, and 3970 November, with resistance at 4430, 4530, and 4580 November.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Aug. 22, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2260.1 493.6 343.0 275.0 22.6 407.5 598.6 88.1 4835.9
Week Ago 2140.3 501.4 335.0 152.9 25.3 430.8 501.2 99.1 4514.8
Year Ago 2414.3 524.6 241.4 291.7 20.9 953.0 439.5 53.2 5482.1
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 390.7 38.9 54.7 145.1 1.4 106.6 182.1 4.7 987.8
Week Ago 231.0 33.3 52.0 51.2 1.4 100.5 245.6 4.6 789.0
To Date 767.8 93.4 142.3 214.0 4.2 324.2 523.6 14.7 2273.1
Year Ago 1049.8 145.4 142.0 149.1 10.1 884.3 443.5 26.3 3067.1
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 362.0 59.8 7.6 0.0 0.0 45.3 44.7 0.0 530.2
Week Ago 377.8 50.4 5.9 0.1 0.0 9.9 6.6 0.2 460.1
To Date 1285.4 188.0 39.9 0.3 0.7 175.2 56.9 25.4 1818.5
Year Ago 1988.1 260.4 22.3 122.3 15.9 778.1 33.1 8.6 3356.0
EXPORTS
This Week 187.3 28.7 36.7 0.4 3.3 6.2 8.4 0.0 275.7
Week Ago 376.2 77.6 36.8 1.2 0.9 91.3 0.9 0.0 592.1
To Date 979.5 258.5 84.9 2.3 5.1 184.1 12.8 0.0 1554.6
Year Ago 1266.2 231.0 80.7 93.4 37.0 626.0 25.3 10.1 2452.2
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 92.3 6.5 16.1 24.0 0.7 138.1 5.1 17.5 317.0
Week Ago 69.7 2.9 14.6 23.5 0.9 154.5 4.6 15.1 315.6
To Date 276.4 11.4 43.4 66.4 2.1 515.0 12.4 48.7 1039.9
Year Ago 361.7 15.3 35.9 67.9 2.9 642.2 7.3 66.5 1274.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 25
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 923.30 25.00 Nov 2021 up 22.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 964.40 50.00 Nov 2021 up 16.10
Basis: Vancouver 994.40 80.00 Nov 2021 up 16.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1167.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1117.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1030.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 970.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1170.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1120.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1032.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 972.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1120.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1045.00 -0500 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,600.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
1Sept 315.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.188)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 193,318 lots, or 11.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,863 5,887 5,815 5,846 5,856 5,863 7 2,468 3,982
Nov-21 5,919 5,933 5,829 5,888 5,897 5,895 -2 131,540 144,458
Jan-22 5,918 5,918 5,835 5,880 5,885 5,887 2 34,617 50,244
Mar-22 5,869 5,905 5,819 5,862 5,869 5,875 6 20,326 17,273
May-22 5,914 5,918 5,837 5,883 5,894 5,889 -5 518 2,109
Jul-22 5,879 5,902 5,814 5,867 5,878 5,876 -2 3,849 4,426
Corn
Turnover: 747,503 lots, or 18.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,579 2,596 2,567 2,575 2,594 2,580 -14 31,830 35,998
Nov-21 2,499 2,508 2,484 2,487 2,506 2,495 -11 79,268 300,750
Jan-22 2,494 2,504 2,474 2,478 2,500 2,487 -13 549,153 793,999
Mar-22 2,515 2,521 2,494 2,496 2,517 2,505 -12 45,728 118,611
May-22 2,545 2,562 2,536 2,538 2,560 2,546 -14 11,812 35,344
Jul-22 2,566 2,570 2,547 2,547 2,574 2,558 -16 29,712 19,671
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,070,904 lots, or 37.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,636 3,638 3,615 3,622 3,637 3,624 -13 21,667 53,977
Nov-21 3,610 3,618 3,593 3,612 3,609 3,608 -1 45,915 95,474
Dec-21 3,551 3,556 3,532 3,546 3,550 3,544 -6 14,127 82,297
Jan-22 3,518 3,518 3,487 3,501 3,509 3,504 -5 829,503 1,225,093
Mar-22 3,372 3,378 3,350 3,363 3,368 3,365 -3 51,169 360,131
May-22 3,297 3,302 3,275 3,287 3,294 3,288 -6 83,004 297,696
Jul-22 3,291 3,299 3,273 3,285 3,290 3,285 -5 18,890 72,239
Aug-22 3,364 3,365 3,328 3,340 3,350 3,342 -8 6,629 26,285
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,147,233 lots, or 95.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 8,940 8,972 8,738 8,924 9,020 8,882 -138 31,747 13,284
Oct-21 9,030 9,030 8,788 8,926 9,002 8,910 -92 41,243 84,562
Nov-21 8,766 8,800 8,604 8,750 8,796 8,740 -56 22,359 81,968
Dec-21 8,526 8,586 8,382 8,524 8,562 8,512 -50 19,795 82,995
Jan-22 8,278 8,346 8,122 8,266 8,340 8,260 -80 999,073 393,596
Feb-22 8,116 8,166 7,936 8,098 8,176 8,086 -90 12,821 12,396
Mar-22 7,978 8,028 7,732 7,966 8,040 7,962 -78 10,220 8,792
Apr-22 7,900 7,922 7,740 7,858 7,934 7,860 -74 5,621 6,921
May-22 7,826 7,854 7,700 7,772 7,876 7,790 -86 4,352 12,501
Jun-22 – – – 7,674 7,674 7,674 0 0 30
Jul-22 – – – 7,680 7,680 7,680 0 0 479
Aug-22 7,580 7,580 7,570 7,570 7,666 7,574 -92 2 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 963,438 lots, or 87.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,350 9,426 9,264 9,368 9,436 9,362 -74 15,573 22,986
Nov-21 9,398 9,404 9,234 9,318 9,422 9,332 -90 58,119 109,077
Dec-21 9,316 9,322 9,154 9,248 9,328 9,254 -74 36,731 89,760
Jan-22 9,144 9,160 8,980 9,074 9,160 9,090 -70 816,958 471,667
Mar-22 8,844 8,896 8,716 8,820 8,910 8,828 -82 13,603 69,367
May-22 8,608 8,648 8,430 8,564 8,654 8,574 -80 7,909 43,926
Jul-22 8,524 8,546 8,340 8,446 8,556 8,478 -78 7,765 14,584
Aug-22 8,494 8,514 8,330 8,406 8,520 8,448 -72 6,780 4,356
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322