About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed on ideas of increasing demand potential as world prices rallied on short supplies, especially in Russia. The demand has not been seen here, so the Winter Wheat markets have not been able to do more than hold in a range Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and domestic Russian prices are above world prices. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 709, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 732, 735, and 756 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 688, 678, and 658 September, with resistance at 725, 735, and 756 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 905, 891, and 888 September, and resistance is at 936, 95, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mixed with spreads between September and November the most active trade. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Chart trends are sideways. Asian prices were a little higher last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1318, 1308, and 1294 September, with resistance at 1355, 1358, and 1368 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 25
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.13 9.63 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.12 9.67 0.00
Brokens 9.60 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher on fund buying. Much of the rally was caused by the big rally in Soybeans. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as pollination is done and the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the western belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. Some showers are in the forecast for the west but it is still hot. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were mostly higher as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near or in harvest. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 125,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 495 September. Support is at 537, 531, and 516 September, and resistance is at 550, 557, and 561 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 494, 489, and 475 September, and resistance is at 520, 526, and 532 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products all shot higher yesterday with Soybean Oil and Soybeans the leaders. There was no single cause for the rally as the market got sold out and funds returned to the buy side with a vengeance. China bought another two shipments of Soybeans but demand is still weaker than expected overall. Demand threats mostly surfaced late in the week and were caused by reports that the EPA was about to submit to the White House new bio fuels blending requirements that could call for less bio fuels demand. Crude Oil was up a lot again yesterday, so Soybean Oil was able to rally again. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Western areas could get some showers this week, but eastern areas look to stay drier. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered some production losses
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1312, 1296, and 1281 September, and resistance is at 1345, 1358, and 1368 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 341.00 September, and resistance is at 359.00, 364.00, and 365.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 5980, 5870, and 5710 September, with resistance at 6200, 6320, and 6440 September

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower yesterday on demand concerns, but rallied along with Soybean Oil today. Exports so far this month have not been strong. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher again on price action in Chicago and on stressful crop growing conditions in the Prairies. It has been a hot and dry Summer to date but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 867.00, 850.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 908.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4160, 4050, and 3970 November, with resistance at 4360, 4430, and 4530 November.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush-Aug 24
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug 24 (MarketsFarm) – Crushing statistics of
major oilseeds in Canada for the month of July 2021, reported
by Statistics Canada are as follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2020/21 2019/20
Canola July 2021 July 2020 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 816,993 806,868 10,409,632 10,128,976
Oil produced 362,458 355,098 4,528,289 4,433,870
Meal produced 473,390 448,268 5,935,604 5,653,726
Soybeans
Seed crushed 142,464 125,875 1,642,279 1,755,417
Oil produced 27,001 22,764 305,799 319,784
Meal produced 112,072 98,373 1,280,668 1,366,351
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 901.10 25.00 Nov 2021 up 11.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 948.30 50.00 Nov 2021 up 22.20
Basis: Vancouver 978.30 80.00 Nov 2021 up 22.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1162.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1092.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1037.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 982.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1165.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1095.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1040.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 985.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1110.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1040.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,620.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 318.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.201)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 227,491 lots, or 1.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,797 5,868 5,785 5,858 5,754 5,822 68 1,712 5,624
Nov-21 5,809 5,892 5,803 5,884 5,727 5,848 121 146,574 128,258
Jan-22 5,828 5,888 5,817 5,876 5,759 5,852 93 57,084 49,009
Mar-22 5,828 5,884 5,813 5,871 5,759 5,852 93 16,633 16,702
May-22 5,880 5,919 5,852 5,886 5,815 5,885 70 1,047 2,010
Jul-22 5,861 5,899 5,843 5,879 5,796 5,871 75 4,441 4,258
Corn
Turnover: 556,227 lots, or 14.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,592 2,596 2,582 2,593 2,579 2,591 12 32,238 62,587
Nov-21 2,518 2,527 2,509 2,509 2,517 2,518 1 65,965 299,398
Jan-22 2,505 2,523 2,501 2,502 2,509 2,512 3 386,402 736,831
Mar-22 2,525 2,538 2,520 2,521 2,525 2,528 3 39,445 104,618
May-22 2,575 2,579 2,560 2,561 2,561 2,568 7 7,244 33,093
Jul-22 2,585 2,592 2,574 2,574 2,574 2,582 8 24,933 12,839
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,111,547 lots, or 38.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,630 3,665 3,630 3,640 3,602 3,642 40 74,357 82,477
Nov-21 3,588 3,627 3,588 3,603 3,580 3,605 25 38,559 93,364
Dec-21 3,531 3,568 3,531 3,547 3,521 3,550 29 6,431 79,516
Jan-22 3,493 3,525 3,491 3,502 3,485 3,506 21 809,277 1,245,724
Mar-22 3,354 3,386 3,351 3,363 3,343 3,368 25 54,960 353,099
May-22 3,274 3,298 3,271 3,288 3,267 3,286 19 104,342 294,158
Jul-22 3,270 3,296 3,270 3,289 3,265 3,284 19 14,562 65,259
Aug-22 3,337 3,373 3,336 3,338 3,337 3,359 22 9,059 24,861
Palm Oil
Turnover: 931,027 lots, or 76.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 8,818 8,976 8,784 8,966 8,744 8,880 136 28,767 26,385
Oct-21 8,738 8,900 8,738 8,890 8,672 8,828 156 23,895 86,939
Nov-21 8,556 8,684 8,488 8,674 8,410 8,580 170 14,530 78,880
Dec-21 8,278 8,492 8,278 8,476 8,252 8,402 150 13,504 77,204
Jan-22 8,168 8,314 8,150 8,290 8,096 8,230 134 822,133 369,296
Feb-22 8,002 8,184 8,002 8,140 7,968 8,104 136 10,066 11,024
Mar-22 7,926 8,044 7,914 8,004 7,864 7,972 108 5,806 8,328
Apr-22 7,824 7,936 7,750 7,896 7,784 7,872 88 3,885 6,553
May-22 7,746 7,878 7,746 7,832 7,738 7,810 72 8,436 11,732
Jun-22 7,674 7,674 7,674 7,674 7,610 7,674 64 1 30
Jul-22 7,680 7,680 7,680 7,680 7,580 7,680 100 1 479
Aug-22 7,576 7,600 7,576 7,600 7,484 7,588 104 3 9
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 765,543 lots, or 69.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,252 9,398 9,244 9,376 9,170 9,324 154 31,029 31,656
Nov-21 9,190 9,376 9,190 9,354 9,144 9,302 158 35,433 107,151
Dec-21 9,144 9,290 9,144 9,276 9,078 9,224 146 15,550 88,072
Jan-22 9,032 9,124 8,986 9,110 8,922 9,062 140 629,429 457,046
Mar-22 8,772 8,900 8,772 8,866 8,732 8,836 104 20,585 67,299
May-22 8,584 8,634 8,540 8,606 8,484 8,596 112 16,885 44,852
Jul-22 8,378 8,580 8,378 8,528 8,430 8,526 96 12,678 13,986
Aug-22 8,478 8,564 8,456 8,494 8,392 8,494 102 3,954 3,763
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322