Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Aug 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 27.738 million pounds, in July, 23.8% below the previous
month, and 34.5% below July 2020, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds. public
Jul 31 Jun 30 Jul 31 Jun 30 warehouse
2021 2021 2020 2020 stocks/Jul
pork bellies 27,738 36,385 42,374 53,840
orange juice 695,144 698,577 777,820 830,445
french fries 883,685 912,824 867,817 868,583
other potatoes 195,452 201,441 219,902 216,545
chicken rstr (whole) 11,991 12,975 26,670 22,458
ham 152,614 130,550 136,621 122,993
total pork 443,128 441,916 460,635 460,173 390,269
total beef 401,259 401,515 440,176 429,302 388,967
total red meat 870,801 870,738 950,851 939,473 804,551
total chicken 734,085 738,256 876,853 866,715
total turkey 436,399 405,996 522,325 474,786
total poultry 1,173,407 1,146,932 1,406,973 1,350,225 1,085,846
General Comments: Futures were higher despite a stronger US Dollar as demand ideas remain strong. Showers are falling in Texas and throughout the major growing areas of the south. The Southeast is turned drier now. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. Overall growing conditions are much better now in just about all areas.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 90.04 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 76,583 bales, from 79,340 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 9180 and 8930 December. Support is at 9180, 9100, and 9030 December, with resistance of 9470, 9600 and 9670 December.
Date 22-Aug 16-Aug 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 97 93 100 100
Cotton Setting Bolls 79 75 867 89
Cotton Bolls Opening 14 10 21 19
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 5 23 53 18
Cotton Last Week 1 4 28 50 17
Cotton Last Year 12 13 29 37 9
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher again yesterday and prices are showing signs of working higher on the daily charts. The market is waiting for some news to trigger a move in one direction or the other. Temperatures are now at or above seasonal averages in Brazil after a freeze even a few weeks ago. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 131.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 139.00, 141.00, and 144.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher with London the stronger market. London is having trouble sourcing Coffee from Vietnam due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the country. Prices in New York have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down. Brazil forecasts call for near to above normal temperatures. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen a few weeks ago and will drop off the trees. It is also harvest time but the harvest is almost done. The current outlook calls for 10 days of dry weather which will not support the flowering but will keep the harvest active. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.154 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 178.00, 176.00, and 175.00 December, and resistance is at 186.00, 190.00 and 203.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2050 and 2110 November. Support is at 1870, 1830, and 1790 November, and resistance is at 1930, 1980, and 2000 November.
General Comments: New York and London were mostly a little higher, but nearby New York was unchanged and nearby London prices were a little lower. Consumption of Sugar remains on the light side. Fears that the Covid is returning and could reduce economic activity and demand held sway. The market is still working through a short supply. The freeze and drought damage is there in Brazil as industry sources have said to expect a short season for processing. London has firmed a bit lately with the problems in Brazil and trends in this market are up. There is little White Sugar left in India for the export market but monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic, but renewed Ethanol demand is now in doubt with weaker Crude Oil futures and covid pandemic fears as the Delta variant spreads.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1930, and 1890 October, and resistance is at 2000, 2040, and 2060 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 473.00, 454.00, and 434.00 October. Support is at 470.00, 465.00, and 460.00 October, and resistance is at 491.00, 501.00, and 510.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in both markets as the supply is out there and the demand ideas are suffering. The return of Covid has made demand suspect once again. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good for now but there is concern about the lack of rain.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.575 million bags. ICE said that 6 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 575 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2520 and 2420 December. Support is at 2530, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2600, 2650, and 2680 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1760 and 1730 December. Support is at 1750, 1740, and 1710 December, with resistance at 1800, 1810, and 1840 December.