About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 23
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 19, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/19/2021 08/12/2021 08/20/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 173 866 0 6,550 2,461
CORN 724,784 781,528 892,031 65,101,475 41,471,986
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 317
MIXED 0 0 0 48 0
OATS 0 0 0 100 800
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 128,581 55,261 70,357 7,026,709 4,801,792
SOYBEANS 214,061 277,686 1,223,251 58,875,757 42,413,972
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 657,854 560,640 569,593 5,663,570 6,232,666
Total 1,725,453 1,675,981 2,755,232 136,674,473 94,923,994
————————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Aug 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 27.738 million pounds, in July, 23.8% below the previous
month, and 34.5% below July 2020, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
In thousand pounds. public
Jul 31 Jun 30 Jul 31 Jun 30 warehouse
2021 2021 2020 2020 stocks/Jul
pork bellies 27,738 36,385 42,374 53,840
orange juice 695,144 698,577 777,820 830,445
french fries 883,685 912,824 867,817 868,583
other potatoes 195,452 201,441 219,902 216,545
chicken rstr (whole) 11,991 12,975 26,670 22,458
ham 152,614 130,550 136,621 122,993
total pork 443,128 441,916 460,635 460,173 390,269
total beef 401,259 401,515 440,176 429,302 388,967
total red meat 870,801 870,738 950,851 939,473 804,551
total chicken 734,085 738,256 876,853 866,715
total turkey 436,399 405,996 522,325 474,786
total poultry 1,173,407 1,146,932 1,406,973 1,350,225 1,085,846
===============================================================================

Crop Progress
Date 22-Aug 16-Aug 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 97 93 100 100
Cotton Setting Bolls 79 75 867 89
Cotton Bolls Opening 14 10 21 19
Corn Dough 88 73 86 81
Corn Dented 41 22 41 38
Corn Mature 3 5 5
Soybeans Blooming 97 94 99 97
Soybeans Setting Pods 88 81 91 87
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 3 4 3
Sorghum Headed 90 82 90 87
Sorghum Coloring 44 31 45 46
Sorghum Mature 20 21 25
Rice Headed 93 86 92 95
Rice Harvested 14 12 16 16
Oats Harvested 87 75 83 81
Spring Wheat Harvested 77 58 46 55
Barley Harvested 72 54 52 63

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 5 23 53 18
Cotton Last Week 1 4 28 50 17
Cotton Last Year 12 13 29 37 9

Corn This Week 4 10 26 46 14
Corn Last Week 4 9 25 47 15
Corn Last Year 4 8 24 46 15

Soybeans This Week 5 11 25 45 11
Soybeans Last Week 4 11 28 45 12
Soybeans Last Year 2 6 23 55 14

Rice This Week 1 3 19 61 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 22 58 16
Rice Last Year 1 3 20 58 18

Sorghum This Week 2 8 28 52 10
Sorghum Last Week 3 7 30 52 8
Sorghum Last Year 5 11 30 43 11

Peanuts This Week 1 2 22 63 12
Peanuts Last Week 1 2 24 60 13
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 19 61 14

Pasture and Range This Week 22 21 28 23 6
Pasture and Range Last Week 23 21 27 22 7
Pasture and Range Last Year 16 26 34 21 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher on ideas of increasing demand potential as world prices rallied on short supplies, especially in Russia. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the US and Canada are seeing some showers this week. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still mixed. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas but are not expected to help much. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 709, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 732, 735, and 756 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 688, 678, and 658 September, with resistance at 725, 735, and 756 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 905, 891, and 888 September, and resistance is at 936, 95, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher despite the ongoing harvest in Texas and Louisiana. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions and farther into the north. Ideas of average yields are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Chart trends are sideways. Asian prices were a little higher last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1318, 1308, and 1294 September, with resistance at 1341, 1355, and 1358 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower on fund selling tied to news from the Pro Farmer tour and on ideas of less ethanol demand if the EPA changes the fuel blending requirements as expected. Funds were the best sellers. The Pro Farmer crop tour concluded on Friday has estimated US Corn production at 15.116 billion bushels with yields of 177 bushels per acre.. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as pollination is done and the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. Some showers are in the forecast for the west but it is still hot. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher as the weather remains bad for production even with the crop near harvest. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 125,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 495 September. Support is at 531, 516, and 505 September, and resistance is at 550, 5757, and 5761 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 494, 489, and 475 September, and resistance is at 520, 526, and 532 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher but Soybean Meal was lower on spreads against Soybean Oil. Demand threats mostly surfaced late in the week and were caused by reports that the EPA was about to submit to the White House new bio fuels blending requirements that could call for less bio fuels demand. Crude Oil was up a lot yesterday, so Soybean Oil was able to hold and rally. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler and western and northern areas are expected to get showers. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered some production losses. Pro Farmer estimated US Soybeans production at 4.436 billion bushels with a yield of 51.2 bushels per acre.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1232 September. Support is at 1281, 1267, and 1260 September, and resistance is at 1313, 13630, and 1345 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 341.00 September, and resistance is at 354.00, 359.00, and 364.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil down with objectives of 5600, 5170, and 5000 September. Support is at 5710, 5440, and 5310 September, with resistance at 6010, 6200, and 6320 September

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week on demand concerns. Exports so far this month have not been strong. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher on price action in Chicago and Malaysia. Damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains but some showers are in the forecast for this week. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 816, 804, and 744 November. Support is at 850.00, 823.00, and 807.00 November, with resistance at 908.00, 940.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4160, 4050, and 3970 November, with resistance at 4360, 4430, and 4530 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 23
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 889.90 25.00 Nov 2021 dn 25.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 926.10 50.00 Nov 2021 up 11.20
Basis: Vancouver 956.10 80.00 Nov 2021 up 11.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1157.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1082.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1027.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 977.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1160.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1085.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1030.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1100.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 1030.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 4,570.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 315.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.216)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 275,932 lots, or 15.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,710 5,813 5,696 5,797 5,705 5,754 49 4,467 5,961
Nov-21 5,658 5,826 5,651 5,809 5,639 5,727 88 186,009 125,728
Jan-22 5,683 5,830 5,680 5,829 5,671 5,759 88 61,405 54,084
Mar-22 5,704 5,830 5,685 5,830 5,678 5,759 81 16,482 16,475
May-22 5,758 5,882 5,746 5,860 5,741 5,815 74 888 1,972
Jul-22 5,758 5,861 5,724 5,850 5,741 5,796 55 6,681 4,133
Corn
Turnover: 612,596 lots, or 15.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,563 2,588 2,563 2,588 2,559 2,579 20 29,634 75,903
Nov-21 2,508 2,529 2,502 2,518 2,509 2,517 8 80,628 289,146
Jan-22 2,497 2,516 2,495 2,510 2,501 2,509 8 410,981 725,114
Mar-22 2,514 2,531 2,511 2,527 2,518 2,525 7 50,245 98,414
May-22 2,550 2,570 2,550 2,568 2,558 2,561 3 13,045 32,217
Jul-22 2,565 2,581 2,562 2,579 2,573 2,574 1 28,063 10,482
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,264,728 lots, or 43.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,578 3,637 3,573 3,630 3,587 3,602 15 77,617 108,239
Nov-21 3,573 3,604 3,546 3,592 3,581 3,580 -1 49,802 90,556
Dec-21 3,518 3,547 3,500 3,536 3,537 3,521 -16 10,330 77,983
Jan-22 3,485 3,507 3,463 3,493 3,499 3,485 -14 930,864 1,221,203
Mar-22 3,336 3,365 3,322 3,354 3,357 3,343 -14 55,238 347,667
May-22 3,271 3,288 3,245 3,272 3,285 3,267 -18 111,612 288,613
Jul-22 3,282 3,287 3,246 3,272 3,284 3,265 -19 20,193 62,201
Aug-22 3,313 3,362 3,313 3,351 3,334 3,337 3 9,072 23,637
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,004,843 lots, or 81.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 8,792 8,854 8,676 8,822 8,636 8,744 108 36,272 32,287
Oct-21 8,750 8,776 8,602 8,768 8,614 8,672 58 23,305 87,704
Nov-21 8,506 8,532 8,346 8,506 8,362 8,410 48 14,763 76,227
Dec-21 8,378 8,378 8,180 8,328 8,186 8,252 66 14,840 75,866
Jan-22 8,170 8,196 8,022 8,168 8,018 8,096 78 890,080 352,727
Feb-22 8,078 8,078 7,910 8,046 7,900 7,968 68 9,619 10,490
Mar-22 7,940 7,970 7,800 7,926 7,802 7,864 62 6,010 7,828
Apr-22 7,882 7,884 7,722 7,842 7,730 7,784 54 4,226 6,281
May-22 7,776 7,836 7,662 7,784 7,690 7,738 48 5,727 9,910
Jun-22 7,610 7,610 7,610 7,610 7,534 7,610 76 1 31
Jul-22 – – – 7,580 7,534 7,580 46 0 479
Aug-22 – – – 7,484 7,432 7,484 52 0 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 864,680 lots, or 77.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,220 9,266 9,100 9,244 9,122 9,170 48 38,941 38,583
Nov-21 9,188 9,238 9,082 9,220 9,102 9,144 42 26,922 101,557
Dec-21 9,118 9,168 9,008 9,144 9,050 9,078 28 8,757 83,778
Jan-22 8,978 9,028 8,854 8,990 8,884 8,922 38 742,060 439,284
Mar-22 8,760 8,818 8,668 8,770 8,720 8,732 12 17,797 66,340
May-22 8,548 8,574 8,410 8,526 8,482 8,484 2 13,864 39,225
Jul-22 8,502 8,510 8,364 8,476 8,408 8,430 22 12,222 12,098
Aug-22 8,452 8,478 8,334 8,460 8,372 8,392 20 4,117 3,416
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322