Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were mixed to a little higher yesterday with most of the higher prices in the deferred months. Prices can continue to climb in coming days. Showers are falling in Texas and throughout the major growing areas of the south. Some big rains from Fred are likely in the Southeast over the next couple of days, but no wind damage is expected. Ideas of strong demand continue but the weekly reports have shown more like an average demand. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. However, the expansion of the Delta variant has given pause to the better demand ideas due to fears of economies here and around the world starting to partially lock down again. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 90.96 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 83,639 bales, from 83,639 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9680 December. Support is at 9240, 9100, and 9030 December, with resistance of 9480, 9540 and 9600 December.
Date 8-Aug 1-Aug 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 93 88 99 99
Cotton Setting Bolls 75 63 79 82
Cotton Bolls Opening 10 5 14 15
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 4 28 50 17
Cotton Last Week 1 6 28 48 17
Cotton Last Year 7 15 33 35 10
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday as Florida weather remains nonthreatening and the cold weather has passed in Brazil. Freezing temperatures have been reported in Sao Paulo in the last couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops as Fred has passed by to the west with little rain or wind for the state. The Atlantic is more active and other systems are coming to the state soon. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers with big rains this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 131.00, 128.00, and 126.00 September, with resistance at 135.00, 139.00, and 142.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday on the adverse weather for Brazil Arabica Coffee areas. Prices have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down. The freeze threat in Brazil has passed but the damage has been done. The government in Brazil estimates that 11% of the Coffee areas were affected. Temperatures are warmer with near to above normal readings expected. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. It is also harvest time and the crop is now more than 89% harvested. The current outlook calls for 10 days of dry weather which will not support the flowering either but will keep the harvest active. Improved showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia. Little demand is showing for Vietnamese Coffee as containers to ship the Coffee are hard to find. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been a little dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.165 million bags. GCA stocks are now 6.074 million bags, from 5.779 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 163.22 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 191.00 September. Support is at 180.00, 177.00, and 173.00 September, and resistance is at 187.00, 190.00 and 195.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1880 and 1960 September. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1770 September, and resistance is at 1880, 1920, and 1950 September.
DJ Uganda July Coffee Exports Rose 29% on Year as Yields Climb
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA, Uganda–Uganda’s July coffee exports rose 29% on year, extending a rising streak into the sixth straight month this season as more newly planted coffee trees entered the production phase, boosting yields in Africa’s top exporter, the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Tuesday.
Coffee exports in July rose to 700,000 60-kilogram bags from the 543,617 bags exported in the same month last season. July’s exports were the highest figure ever exported in a single month in more than a decade.
July coffee exports brought the cumulative 10-month shipments of the season to 5.2 million bags, representing a 20% jump in the quantity of exports compared with the same period last year.
“Increasing robusta exports are due to newly planted coffee which started yielding supported by favorable weather,” the UCDA said in a report “This was also compounded by a positive trend in global coffee prices in the month of July as Brazil faced the threat of frost, which prompted exporters to release their stocks on top of increased procurement.”
Uganda has been planting a significant amount of new coffee trees as it aims to increase annual production to 20 million bags by 2025. The country, which exports mainly the bitter-tasting robusta coffee variety, used in instant drinks and blends, saw its shipments rise by nearly 60% during the last fiscal year, reaching 8.1 million bags boosted by maturing plantations and favorable rains.
General Comments: New York and London were higher again on what appeared to be speculative buying. Chart trends are up in both markets. The freeze and drought damage is there and UNICA last week noted less second half July production because of all the damage that the cane crops have sustained. Ideas are now that the Brazil processing and exporting season will end very early due to the freezes. Ideas are that the damage from previous freezes and drought episodes should show up in processing data for August as well. London has firmed a bit lately with the problems in Brazil and trends in this market are up. There is not much White Sugar left in India for the export market but monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic, but renewed Ethanol demand is now in doubt with weaker Crude Oil futures and covid pandemic fears as the Delta variant spreads.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2050 October. Support is at 1960, 1930, and 1880 October, and resistance is at 2030, 2060, and 2090 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 509.00 October. Support is at 491.00, 482.00, and 479.00 October, and resistance is at 504.00, 510.00, and 516.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday and trends remain up in both markets. London was the stronger market. Ivory Coast has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. The weather has had below normal rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.623 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2580 September. Support is at 2500, 2450, and 2420 September, with resistance at 2590, 2620, and 2650 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1720 September. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1630 September, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1750 September.