About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 16
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 12, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
—————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/12/2021 08/05/2021 08/13/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 866 1,297 1,996 6,377 2,461
CORN 754,929 744,934 1,139,132 64,350,092 40,579,955
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 317
MIXED 0 0 0 48 0
OATS 0 0 0 100 800
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 55,165 75,837 87,240 6,898,032 4,731,435
SOYBEANS 277,637 114,718 932,541 58,661,647 41,190,721
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 440,567 653,969 495,513 4,885,643 5,663,073
Total 1,529,164 1,590,755 2,656,422 134,802,203 92,168,762
————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 8-Aug 1-Aug 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 93 88 99 99
Cotton Setting Bolls 75 63 79 82
Cotton Bolls Opening 10 5 14 15
Corn Dough 73 56 74 68
Corn Dented 22 8 21 22
Soybeans Blooming 94 91 95 94
Soybreans Setting Pods 81 72 83 79
Sorghum Headed 82 69 81 79
Sorghum Coloring 31 26 33 36
Rice Headed 86 74 84 89
Rice Harvested 12 7 13 12
Peanuts Pegging 95 92 96 96
Oats Harvested 75 64 72 70
Spring Wheat Harvested 58 35 28 36
Barley Harvested 54 35 31 44

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 4 28 50 17
Cotton Last Week 1 6 28 48 17
Cotton Last Year 7 15 33 35 10

Corn This Week 4 9 25 47 15
Corn Last Week 3 8 25 49 15
Corn Last Year 3 7 21 52 17

Soybeans This Week 3 11 28 45 12
Soybeans Last Week 2 10 27 48 12
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 21 56 16

Spring Wheat This Week 28 35 26 10 1
Spring Wheat Last Week 29 32 28 10 1
Spring Wheat Last Year 2 4 24 58 12

Rice This Week 1 3 22 58 16
Rice Last Week 1 2 22 59 16
Rice Last Year 1 3 20 59 17

Barley This Week 25 26 26 19 4
Barley Last Week 20 26 30 29 4
Barley Last Year 1 3 19 59 10

Sorghum This Week 3 7 30 52 8
Sorghum Last Week 2 7 28 54 9
Sorghum Last Year 5 9 29 45 12

Peanuts This Week 1 2 24 60 12
Peanuts Last Week 1 2 23 62 12
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 20 62 12

Pasture and Range This Week 23 21 27 22 7
Pasture and Range Last Week 22 21 27 22 8
Pasture and Range Last Year 13 22 33 26 4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed as world markets held strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still up. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas over the next week, then showers and cooler temperatures are in the forecast. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather, but a cold front could bring some relief in several days.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 794 and 815 September. Support is at 748, 739, and 730 September, with resistance at 778, 784, and 790 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 780 September. Support is at 732, 718, and 702 September, with resistance at 758, 764, and 780 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 957 and 995 September. Support is at 925, 920, and 905 September, and resistance is at 954, 960, and 966 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher. The harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas. Initial yield reports and quality reports have not been real good. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The smut problem appears to be worse around Houston. The trends are mixed in the market. Traders expect average to weak production. The harvest got started in Texas and southern Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Asian prices are mostly steady this week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1362, 1387, and 1390 September. Support is at 1341, 1337, and 1335 September, with resistance at 1368, 1389, and 1394 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on what appeared to be some speculative selling in light volume trading. Trends are up on the charts. The weather remains a feature of the trade. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher on ideas of small production. The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops. The Pro Farmer crop tour found good production potential in Ohio and eastern Indiana and mixed but generally better than expected production potential in South Dakota and part of Nebraska.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 594, 607, and 615 September. Support is at 559, 550, and 544 September, and resistance is at 575, 579, and 589 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 509 September. Support is at 494, 475, and 467 September, and resistance is at 500, 506, and 512 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher in response to positive demand news, but Soybean Oil was lower along with weakness in Crude Oil futures. Chart trends remain mostly sideways in all three markets. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler and parts of central Illinois turned too wet again after some big rains on Thursday night. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and nod the Dakotas are hot and dry. The Pro Farmer crop tour found good production potential in Ohio and eastern Indiana and mixed but generally better than expected production potential in South Dakota and part of Nebraska.
Overnight News: China bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1428 and 1483 September. Support is at 1355, 1335, and 12330 September, and resistance is at 1388, 1394, and 1431 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 347.00, and 342.00 September, and resistance is at 364.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6200, 6100, and 6010 September, with resistance at 6440, 6520, and 6650 September.

NOPA July soy crush at 155.105 million bushels, below all estimates – Reuters News
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, Aug 16 (Reuters) – The U.S. soybean processing pace was below all trade estimates for a second straight month in July, although the crush did rise modestly from a two-year low the prior month, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.
NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans crushed in the United States, processed just 155.105 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 1.8% from the 152.410 million bushels crushed in June and down 10.2% from 172.794 million bushels in July 2020.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher yesterday, but lower today on less than expected exports as reported by the private sources. Futures are still a trading range market on ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher on damaging weather continues in the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 888.00, 867.00, and 859.00 November, with resistance at 932.00, 949.00, and 953.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4690 November. Support is at 4430, 4400, and 4320 November, with resistance at 4520, 4580, and 4640 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 908.40 25.00 Nov. 2021 dn 5.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 944.30 50.00 Nov. 2021 up 10.90
Basis: Vancouver 974.30 80.00 Nov. 2021 up 10.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1182.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 1172.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1097.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1042.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1185.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 1175.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1100.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1045.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1135.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1065.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,670.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 321.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.238)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 267,506 lots, or 15.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,879 5,880 5,770 5,832 5,806 5,814 8 53,462 13,580
Nov-21 5,813 5,878 5,760 5,844 5,752 5,819 67 156,509 115,594
Jan-22 5,858 5,880 5,786 5,857 5,774 5,842 68 47,709 42,227
Mar-22 5,803 5,876 5,786 5,834 5,775 5,838 63 5,756 12,850
May-22 5,863 5,944 5,842 5,893 5,837 5,893 56 472 1,762
Jul-22 5,868 5,915 5,832 5,869 5,825 5,883 58 3,598 3,180
Corn
Turnover: 697,057 lots, or 18.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,602 2,611 2,590 2,608 2,619 2,600 -19 121,923 158,627
Nov-21 2,595 2,595 2,574 2,590 2,593 2,583 -10 56,345 265,007
Jan-22 2,597 2,598 2,581 2,593 2,602 2,588 -14 447,490 560,519
Mar-22 2,604 2,608 2,591 2,603 2,611 2,599 -12 52,271 66,779
May-22 2,645 2,646 2,629 2,639 2,647 2,636 -11 6,798 21,447
Jul-22 2,652 2,659 2,644 2,650 2,657 2,650 -7 12,230 4,506
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,316,910 lots, or 47.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 3,672 3,687 3,646 3,673 3,668 3,670 2 187,434 290,535
Nov-21 3,698 3,706 3,664 3,686 3,686 3,687 1 32,733 82,131
Dec-21 3,651 3,681 3,635 3,666 3,652 3,658 6 36,164 69,796
Jan-22 3,632 3,651 3,609 3,637 3,627 3,634 7 918,974 1,212,065
Mar-22 3,487 3,509 3,469 3,497 3,479 3,491 12 45,979 320,073
May-22 3,395 3,415 3,376 3,405 3,383 3,400 17 61,071 208,989
Jul-22 3,406 3,413 3,375 3,403 3,377 3,394 17 23,636 52,167
Aug-22 3,391 3,494 3,379 3,417 3,387 3,403 16 10,919 13,669
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,057,810 lots, or 91.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 8,810 9,066 8,810 8,948 9,010 8,940 -70 418,326 125,373
Oct-21 8,848 8,970 8,786 8,878 8,908 8,896 -12 18,854 73,755
Nov-21 8,636 8,776 8,536 8,700 8,686 8,710 24 9,391 68,507
Dec-21 8,444 8,618 8,398 8,532 8,490 8,530 40 12,293 63,509
Jan-22 8,336 8,522 8,290 8,418 8,380 8,420 40 571,011 364,039
Feb-22 8,222 8,382 8,166 8,298 8,266 8,304 38 10,914 9,862
Mar-22 8,104 8,278 8,076 8,200 8,152 8,198 46 6,767 7,284
Apr-22 8,002 8,174 7,974 8,080 8,042 8,104 62 5,922 5,818
May-22 7,956 8,104 7,902 8,024 7,972 8,034 62 4,329 10,346
Jun-22 7,832 7,874 7,832 7,874 7,882 7,852 -30 2 31
Jul-22 7,832 7,832 7,832 7,832 7,826 7,832 6 1 482
Aug-22 – – – 7,798 7,798 7,798 0 0 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 972,908 lots, or 89.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 9,290 9,448 9,282 9,404 9,384 9,382 -2 265,854 124,997
Nov-21 9,316 9,422 9,238 9,360 9,336 9,358 22 43,453 94,604
Dec-21 9,242 9,378 9,182 9,306 9,248 9,292 44 18,622 84,842
Jan-22 9,076 9,260 9,050 9,188 9,132 9,174 42 597,169 445,838
Mar-22 8,924 9,086 8,894 9,020 8,970 9,006 36 21,799 56,398
May-22 8,696 8,862 8,670 8,812 8,726 8,780 54 13,891 21,442
Jul-22 8,634 8,760 8,594 8,692 8,634 8,686 52 10,912 9,806
Aug-22 8,556 8,670 8,492 8,600 8,556 8,592 36 1,208 1,863
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322