About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 12
For the week ended Aug 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil begins Oct 1.
For rice and cotton, “this year” is the 2021-2022 marketing
year, which began Aug 1, while “last year” is 2020-2021.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 293.1 0.0 8705.3 10491.2 4961.6 0.0
hrw 173.8 0.0 3028.5 3821.3 1625.1 0.0
srw 21.1 0.0 1553.2 1029.3 1003.8 0.0
hrs 97.1 0.0 2500.7 3178.0 1442.9 0.0
white 0.6 0.0 1572.3 2066.2 881.4 0.0
durum 0.5 0.0 50.6 396.3 8.4 0.0
corn 377.6 601.8 70101.1 44159.8 5518.2 18088.7
soybeans 96.9 1120.3 62017.1 47442.8 2571.7 11722.8
soymeal 116.3 268.3 11928.5 11957.5 1726.7 1417.4
soyoil 0.3 0.0 682.9 1266.9 17.4 0.6
upland cotton 1653.6-a 15.3 4976.4 6567.1 4785.8 516.1
pima cotton 99.0-b 0.0 113.7 178.5 106.0 0.0
sorghum 6.6 0.0 7189.6 4633.7 527.5 1594.9
barley 0.0 0.0 25.0 39.2 22.7 0.0
rice 304.3-c 2.1 522.4 351.9 517.8 2.1
-a: Includes new sales activity for Jul 30-Aug 5 which resulted
in a net increase of 342.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1310.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2020-2021.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Jul 30-Aug 5 which
resulted in a net increase of 10.2 thousand metric tons. Also includes
88.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2020-2021.
-c: Includes new sales activity for Jul 30-Aug 5 which
resulted in a net increase of 67.1 thousand metric tons. Also includes
237.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2020-2021.

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2021 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2020
Corn Production 14,948 14,699-15,220 15,165 14,182
Soybean Production 4,360 4,273-4,455 4,405 4,135
Corn Yield 177.1 174.0-180.0 179.5 172.0
Soybean Yield 50.3 49.3-51.4 50.8 50.2
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSompo North America 14,978 178.1 4,370 50.4
Agrisource 14,846 175.7 4,371 50.4
Allendale 15,136 179.1 4,273 49.3
DC Analysis 14,954 177.2 4,386 50.6
Doane 14,871 176.0 4,335 50.0
EDF Man 15,000 177.5 4,352 50.2
Futures Intl 14,828 176.0 4,407 50.8
Grain Cycles 14,913 176.5 4,413 50.9
Linn Group 14,794 176.2 4,284 49.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,999 177.5 4,335 50.0
Midland Research 14,873 176.0 4,335 50.0
Midwest Market Solutions 14,699 174.5 4,289 49.5
Northstar 14,956 177.0 4,369 50.3
Prime Ag 15,210 180.0 4,420 51.0
RJ O’Brien 14,699 174.0 4,289 49.5
RMC 14,868 177.0 4,369 50.4
StoneX Group 14,948 176.9 4,336 50.0
US Commodities 15,066 178.3 4,405 50.8
Vantage RM 15,220 179.5 4,455 51.4
Western Milling 14,933 178.0 4,336 50.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,122 179.0 4,436 51.2

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021-22 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2021-22 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA July USDA 2020-21
All Wheat 1,725 1,700-1,777 1,746 1,826
Winter Wheat 1,366 1,347-1,376 1,364 1,171
Hard Red Winter 807 795-819 805 659
Soft Red Winter 363 357-372 362 266
White Winter 193 167-220 198 246
Other Spring 324 300-365 345 586
Durum 35 30-39 37 69
All Winter Other
Wheat Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
AgriSompo North America 1,722
Allendale 1,704 1,364 805 362 198 305 35
DC Analysis 1,718 1,364 808 366 190 320 34
Doane 1,700 1,364 805 362 198 300 36
EDF Man 1,710 1,350 800 360 190 325 35
Futures Intl 1,753 1,372 795 357 220 342 39
Grain Cycles 1,719 1,364 320 35
Linn Group 1,724 1,364 805 362 198 325 35
Sid Love Consulting 1,739 1,367 808 365 194 337 35
Midland Research 1,725 1,376 815 372 190 315 34
Midwest Market Solutions 1,731 1,370 819 358 193 325 34
Northstar 1,777 1,375 816 365 194 365 37
RJ O’Brien 1,731 1,371 819 358 194 325 34
RMC 1,735 1,370 803 360 167 310 35
StoneX Group 1,722 1,365 808 366 192 322 35
US Commodities 1,718
Vantage RM 1,719 1,347 795 362 190 335 37
Western Milling 1,700 1,365 815 370 180 305 30
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,732 1,369 800 365 204 330 33

DJ U.S. August Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,098 1,042-1,186 1,082
Soybeans 147 130-167 135
Wheat 841 800-844 844
2021-22
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,265 1,005-1,477 1,432
Soybeans 151 115-236 155
Wheat 645 590-690 665
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,082 135 844 1,250 120 641
Agrisource 1,182 135 844 1,210 125 660
Allendale 1,102 167 844 1,329 145 663
DC Analysis 1,082 155 1,200 155 590
Doane 1,059 150 844 1,200 120 650
EDF Man 1,111 165 844 1,295 160 596
Futures Intl 1,069 145 1,307 167 647
Grain Cycles 1,082 155 844 1,280 198 673
Linn Group 1,186 164 1,005 129 660
Sid Love Consulting 1,050 140 844 1,234 125 658
Midland Research 1,132 155 844 1,065 155 654
Midwest Market Solutions 1,059 155 844 1,159 140 680
Northstar 1,100 145 844 1,300 160 660
Prime-Ag 1,082 135 844 1,477 170 635
RJ O’Brien 1,056 153 1,159 138 690
RMC 1,100 140 800 1,385 150 635
StoneX Group 1,156 144 844 1,324 115 636
US Commodities 1,042 130 844 1,218 150 607
Vantage RM 1,090 140 844 1,472 176 638
Western Milling 1,132 144 844 1,250 145 625
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,097 140 844 1,454 236 641

DJ August World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA July
Corn 278.4 275.5-281.1 279.9
Soybeans 91.5 88.8-92.3 91.5
Wheat 290.0 288.5-290.9 290.2
2021-22
Average Range USDA July
Corn 288.0 282.0-292.0 291.2
Soybeans 94.8 93.0-96.7 94.5
Wheat 288.0 280.2-290.6 291.7
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 290.8 94.3 290.6
Allendale 276.0 91.9 289.8 287.1 95.1 285.4
EDF Man 281.0 92.0 290.0 289.0 95.0 290.0
Futures Intl 286.0 96.0 289.0
Grain Cycles 275.5 92.0 290.2 287.0 95.5 288.5
Linn Group 282.0 94.5 289.5
Northstar 278.0 92.0 290.0 286.0 94.0 288.0
Prime-Ag 280.0 92.0 290.0 292.0 95.0 290.0
RMC 275.5 91.0 288.5 289.2 93.5 290.3
StoneX Group 279.2 88.8 290.9 288.9 93.0 280.2
Western Milling 279.5 91.8 290.2 288.0 95.0 286.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 281.1 92.3 290.2 289.4 96.7 287.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly a little lower as traders got ready for the USDA reports coming later today. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still up. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and are now well below the latest USDA estimates. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Some showers are no in the forecast for the drier areas over the next week, then showers and cooler temperatures are in the forecast. The weather in China and Europe is wet and there is potential for reduced quality in Europe. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather, but a cold front could bring some relief in several days.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above
normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 719, 708, and 695 September, with resistance at 732, 739, and 749 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 702, 688, and 678 September, with resistance at 719, 724, and 745 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 888, 879, and 859 September, and resistance is at 928, 945, and 954 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again as the harvest is now expanding through southern growing areas and as traders got ready for the USDA reports that will be released later this morning. Initial yield reports and quality reports have not been real good. Smut has been reported in Texas but the smut is coming off the grain in the cleaning process. The trends are mixed in the market. Traders expect average to weak production. The harvest got started in Texas and southern Louisiana but has been slow in these areas due to rain showers in the region. Both areas have been wet and cloudy this season and average at best yields are expected. Initial reports from Texas suggest that average yields are very optimistic. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1362, 1387, and 1390 September. Support is at 1337, 1310, and 1308 September, with resistance at 1348, 1355, and 1360 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday and continues to trade inside a narrow trading range. Much of the trading activity was in preparation for the USDA reports to be released later this morning. Increased condition noted by USDA in the weekly crop updates was the main reason for the selling. The market is looking ahead to the USDA reports on Thursday that are expected to show yield potential for Corn and also increased ending stocks as demand has been less than expected in the last couple of months. Demand has improved in the past week, and the weather remains a feature of the trade. Some forecasts call for improved weather, especially in the eastern belt. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were a little lower on long liquidation before the USDA reports on Thursday . The uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains the best support for the market. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Some rain is now in the forecast but is too little and too late to materially help crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 544, 540, and 537 September, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 572 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 450, 440, and 436 September, and resistance is at 470, 475, and 482 September.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Production Sinks Below 1M Barrels Per Day
By Kirk Maltais
Daily production of ethanol in the U.S. has retreated to below 1 million barrels per day, the lowest it has been since early May.
In its weekly report released Wednesday, the EIA said that U.S. ethanol production is at 986,000 barrels per day for the week ended July 30, a 27,000 barrel-per-day decrease from last week. The decline is far more than expected by analysts this week, with those surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting ethanol production at anywhere from 1.008 million to 1.02 million barrels.
Inventories also fell this week, dropping 373,000 barrels to 22.28 million barrels. The decline is also more than expected by traders, who had anticipated stocks to decline to only as low as 22.5 million barrels.
Corn futures are elevated in trading Wednesday, ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. The most-active futures contract is up 0.6% in trading today to nearly $5.57 per bushel Wednesday.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed and Soybean Oil was higher and Soybean Meal was a little ;lower on more forecasts for good production and improved weather along with worries about weaker than expected demand. Traders were preparing for the USDA reports today that could reflect those concerns. Chart trends remain sideways in all three markets. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but eastern Nebraska got very beneficial rain over the weekend.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1331, 1308, and 1296 September, and resistance is at 1358, 1366, and 1379 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 341.00 September, and resistance is at 360.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6170, 6010, and 5940 September, with resistance at 6310, 6390, and 6520 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on some long liquidation after trading sharply higher the previous day on supply concerns due to the release of the MPOB report. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher yesterday as traders got ready for the USDA reports to be released later this morning. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. Some showers in the forecast for this week have no chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather and the rains are coming too late.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 867.00, 859.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 902.00, 9306.00, and 932.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4650 October. Support is at 4330, 4280, and 4170 October, with resistance at 43600, 4660, and 4720 October.

DJ Malaysia August 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Up 4.2%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the August 1-10 period are estimated up 4.2% on month at 423,888 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-10 July 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 155,883 152,664
RBD Palm Oil 28,030 41,713
RBD Palm Stearin 43,259 40,020
Crude Palm Oil 62,526 54,935
Total* 423,888 406,897
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia’s July Palm Oil Exports 1.41M Tons; Down 0.8%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 0.8% on month at 1.41 million metric tons in July, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the July crop data and revised numbers for June, issued by MPOB:
July June Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,523,143 1,606,187 Dn 5.17%
Palm Oil Exports 1,408,321 1,419,004 Dn 0.75%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 112,999 78,328 Up 44.26%
Palm Oil Imports 54,381 113,126 Dn 51.93%
Closing Stocks 1,496,460 1,614,219 Dn 7.3%
Crude Palm Oil 703,886 798,482 Dn 11.85%
Processed Palm Oil 792,574 815,737 Dn 2.84%

DJ Malaysia Palm Oil Exports Fell in Aug. 1-10, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Aug. 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 10% from a month earlier to 368,763 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Aug. 1-10 July 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 125,935 N/A
RBD Palm Oil 25,183 N/A
RBD Palm Stearin 42,559 N/A
Crude Palm Oil 62,541 N/A
Total* 368,763 410,915
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 11
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 903.30 25.00 Nov. 2021 dn 3.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 939.00 50.00 Nov. 2021 up 10.70
Basis: Vancouver 969.00 80.00 Nov. 2021 dn 10.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1162.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1152.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1077.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1017.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1165.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1155.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1080.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1020.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1117.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1052.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,620.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 316.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.231)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 213,588 lots, or 12.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,825 5,864 5,744 5,764 5,792 5,800 8 89,617 25,726
Nov-21 5,763 5,799 5,642 5,646 5,735 5,713 -22 78,842 123,827
Jan-22 5,780 5,817 5,674 5,675 5,764 5,738 -26 38,519 47,436
Mar-22 5,771 5,814 5,671 5,671 5,765 5,737 -28 3,505 14,140
May-22 5,849 5,867 5,731 5,753 5,828 5,802 -26 558 1,601
Jul-22 5,840 5,863 5,727 5,727 5,820 5,791 -29 2,547 3,385
Corn
Turnover: 833,816 lots, or 21.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,577 2,615 2,575 2,614 2,577 2,599 22 408,318 320,088
Nov-21 2,546 2,567 2,538 2,566 2,543 2,556 13 56,365 263,933
Jan-22 2,545 2,573 2,540 2,572 2,543 2,560 17 293,221 392,697
Mar-22 2,555 2,578 2,549 2,577 2,552 2,569 17 54,100 66,169
May-22 2,593 2,610 2,589 2,608 2,588 2,602 14 6,396 18,821
Jul-22 2,606 2,621 2,603 2,620 2,603 2,614 11 15,416 4,518
Soymeal
Turnover: lots, or yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Palm Oil
Turnover: lots, or yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 872,451 lots, or 79.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 8,998 8,998 8,998 0 0 0
Sep-21 9,300 9,320 9,204 9,218 9,114 9,242 128 468,053 209,167
Nov-21 9,066 9,220 9,066 9,142 9,024 9,150 126 37,758 95,679
Dec-21 9,168 9,168 9,042 9,074 8,946 9,074 128 21,175 84,686
Jan-22 9,048 9,048 8,924 8,944 8,838 8,962 124 308,116 354,505
Mar-22 8,876 8,876 8,764 8,780 8,658 8,794 136 24,231 54,189
May-22 8,698 8,698 8,548 8,564 8,486 8,592 106 4,889 13,942
Jul-22 8,518 8,536 8,406 8,444 8,406 8,476 70 8,229 8,684
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322