About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Monday, August 09, 2021

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher again last week on hopes for improved demand against ideas of good US production. Futures are still in a trading range but are now at the upper end of the ranger. Ideas of strong demand continue but the weekly reports have shown more like an average demand. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas with some dry pockets noted, and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. The Texas Panhandle is expecting beneficial showers this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.31 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 91,041 bales, from 91,041 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8890, 8800, and 8590 December, with resistance of 9130, 9180 and 9240 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 03, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 302,405
: Positions :
: 81,319 12,375 56,061 51,086 214,795 94,275 9,726 282,741 292,957: 19,664 9,447
: Changes from: July 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: 4,001) :
: 2,572 706 2,515 53 223 388 30 5,528 3,475: -1,527 526
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.9 4.1 18.5 16.9 71.0 31.2 3.2 93.5 96.9: 6.5 3.1
: Total Traders: 308 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 141 42 83 54 62 47 18 274 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again last week as Florida weather remains nonthreatening and the cold weather has passed in Brazil. Reports of freezing temperatures in Sao Paulo Brazil that could affect the production of Oranges in the state continue to support futures prices. Freezing temperatures have been reported in the state in the last couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is quiet and nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Demand news has been bad with Nielsen reporting sales at $30.2 million and a third month of declining sales. The sales are now the weakest since the Pandemic began.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 131.00, 128.00, and 126.00 September, with resistance at 137.00, 142.00, and 144.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 3, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,030 :
: Positions :
: 2,892 10,221 1,450 364 0 2,894 163 128 1,635 606 1,781 :
\: Changes from: July 27, 2021 :
: 82 -754 -164 277 0 -116 14 -24 -292 -9 -67 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.6 72.9 10.3 2.6 0.0 20.6 1.2 0.9 11.7 4.3 12.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 74 :
: 14 14 4 . 0 16 . . 21 5 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower on Friday and are holding to a trading range in the short term. Prices have stayed firm as the current Brazil harvest starts to wind down. Safras e Mercado estimated the harvest at 84% complete late last week. The freeze threat in Brazil has passed with some additional damage. The government in Brazil estimates that 11% of the Coffee areas were affected. Temperatures are trending warmer with near to below normal readings expected. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. London remains firm overall on dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were working with drier than normal weather conditions. Little demand is showing for Vietnamese Coffee as containers to ship the Coffee are hard to find. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in the rest of Southeast Asia and in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.159 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 154.09 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 172.00, 168.00, and 166.00 September, and resistance is at 179.00, 190.00 and 200.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1670 September, and resistance is at 1800, 1870, and 1920 September .

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 03, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 399,713
: Positions :
: 47,391 13,577 140,165 114,896 218,307 85,350 20,389 387,802 392,439: 11,911 7,275
: Changes from: July 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: -2,375) :
: 284 -607 -4,567 -678 41 2,256 2,623 -2,705 -2,510: 330 135
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 3.4 35.1 28.7 54.6 21.4 5.1 97.0 98.2: 3.0 1.8
: Total Traders: 441 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 166 63 151 120 127 48 27 394 327:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/03/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
143,615 50,018 80,601 9,407 9,989 3,427
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.8% 56.1% 6.5% 7.0% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
141 43 38 13 4 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,644 1,902 12,352 6,725 1,682 30,432
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.9% 1.3% 8.6% 4.7% 1.2% 21.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 5 15 16 8 26
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,610 3,230
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 2.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher last week as crop losses are being seen and as the temperatures have moderated in Brazil. The damage to crops in Brazil is affecting the New York price more than London but futures in both markets were higher yesterday. Ideas are that the damage from previous freezes and drought episodes should show up in processing data for August. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with stronger world petroleum prices. London has been the weaker market but has firmed a bit lately with the problems in Brazil. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1920 and 1980 October. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1780 October, and resistance is at 1910, 1940, and 1970 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 466.00 and 478.00 October. Support is at 454.00, 446.00, and 442.00 October, and resistance is at 464.00, 467.00, and 470.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 03, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,161,551
: Positions :
: 211,689 34,309 236,615 320,468 763,739 300,434 84,120 1,069,207 1,118,783: 92,344 42,768
: Changes from: July 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: 21,741) :
: 7,112 -355 4,993 12,108 12,533 6,077 6,907 30,290 24,078: -8,549 -2,336
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 3.0 20.4 27.6 65.8 25.9 7.2 92.0 96.3: 8.0 3.7
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 22 74 80 78 42 18 237 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/03/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
75,634 37,930 56,976 9,090 3,299 3,292
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 50.1% 75.3% 12.0% 4.4% 4.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
103 34 36 11 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,944 2,562 4,696 1,927 143 1,332
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.8% 3.4% 6.2% 2.5% 0.2% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 12 10 7 3 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,423 3,334
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 4.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week in range trading. The US Dollar and British pound cross was a feature in the trading. Ivory Coast has forward sold 1.4 million tons of beans and has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above below to rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 5.689 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2340, 2330, and 2310 September, with resistance at 2460, 2500, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 September, with resistance at 1660, 1670, and 1690 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 03, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 287,911
: Positions :
: 32,390 47,874 64,926 128,824 140,282 49,978 25,591 276,118 278,674: 11,792 9,237
: Changes from: July 27, 2021 (Change in open interest: -6,803) :
: -3,508 -4,192 -3,762 2,558 6,231 -1,322 -4,665 -6,033 -6,388: -770 -415
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.2 16.6 22.6 44.7 48.7 17.4 8.9 95.9 96.8: 4.1 3.2
: Total Traders: 230 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 63 72 50 39 32 18 194 157:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 08/03/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
305,900 207,109 198,122 32,295 22,841 11,518
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 67.7% 64.8% 10.6% 7.5% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 48 39 18 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
7,812 32,510 12,297 6,225 382 26,255
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.6% 10.6% 4.0% 2.0% 0.1% 8.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 21 12 15 6 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,389 1,975
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 0.6%

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322