About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. June Coffee, Cocoa Imports-August 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2021—- —-May 2021—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 124,018,314 273,460,382 133,812,040 295,055,548
coffee, roasted 8,929,803 19,690,216 8,600,566 18,964,248
coffee, soluble
instant 4,716,991 10,400,965 4,277,546 9,431,989
cocoa beans 39,206,190 86,449,649 44,290,997 97,661,648
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 3,014,137 6,646,172 2,446,498 5,394,528
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 8,806,407 19,418,127 8,479,241 18,696,726
cocoa paste,
not defatted 7,768,730 17,130,050 5,283,417 11,649,934
cocoa paste
defatted 6,599,115 14,551,049 2,273,050 5,012,075
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,289,950 20,484,340 9,188,555 20,260,764
cocoa powder,
sweetened 40,946 90,286 46,008 101,448
coating 4,890,933 10,784,507 5,062,599 11,163,031
candy containing
chocolate 11,185,419 24,663,849 9,969,711 21,983,213

General Comments: Futures were a little higher again yesterday on hopes for improved demand against ideas of good US production. Ideas of strong demand continue but the weekly reports have shown more like an average demand. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas with some dry pockets noted, and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. The Texas Panhandle is expecting beneficial showers this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 91,059 bales, from 97,148 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 25,300 bales this year and 160,700 bales net year.. Net Pima sales were 2,500 bales this year and 9,100 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8890, 8800, and 8590 December, with resistance of 9130, 9180 and 9240 December.

DJ U.S. June Cotton Exports-Aug 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 21 May 21 Apr 21 Jun 20
Upland, under 1 inch 8,894,616 13,752,536 15,961,073 8,655,578
1 to 1 1/8 inch 100,587,419 133,890,066 122,558,363 114,219,711
upland 1 1/8 and over 10,011,060 9,303,859 11,375,836 191,073,066
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 143,630,171 199,395,305 195,222,401 4,808,700
All cotton 263,123,266 356,341,766 345,117,673 318,757,055
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jun 21 May 21 Apr 21 Jun 20
Upland, under 1 inch 40,853 63,165 73,309 39,755
1 to 1 1/8 inch 461,994 614,952 562,906 524,607
upland 1 1/8 and over 45,980 42,732 52,249 877,591
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 659,688 915,815 896,649 22,086
All cotton 1,208,515 1,636,664 1,585,113 1,464,039

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday as Florida weather remains nonthreatening and the cold weather has passed in Brazil. Reports of freezing temperatures in Sao Paulo Brazil that could affect the production of Oranges in the state supported futures overall. Freezing temperatures have been reported in the state in the last couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is quiet and nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Demand news has been bad with Nielsen reporting sales at $30.2 million and a third month of declining sales. The sales are now the weakest since the Pandemic began.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 126.00 September. Support is at 128.00, 126.00, and 125.00 September, with resistance at 137.00, 142.00, and 144.00 September.

General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher in follow through recovery trading. The freeze threat in Brazil has passed with some additional damage. Temperatures are starting to trend a little warmer with near to below normal readings expected. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. London remains firm overall on dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were working with drier than normal weather conditions. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in the rest of Southeast Asia and in parts of Africa, but Ivory Coast and Ghana have been dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 2.166 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 155.41 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 168.00, 152,00, and 147,00 September. Support is at 172.00, 168.00, and 166.00 September, and resistance is at 179.00, 190.00 and 200.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1610 September. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1670 September, and resistance is at 1800, 1870, and 1920 September.

General Comments: New York closed mixed and London was a little lower as the temperatures have moderated in Brazil. The damage to crops in Brazil is affecting the New York price more than London. Ideas are that the damage from previous freezes and drought episodes should show up in processing data for August. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with stronger world petroleum prices. London has been the weaker market but has firmed a bit lately with the problems in Brazil. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1750 and 1680 October. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1710 October, and resistance is at 1830, 1880, and 1910 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 442.00, 440.00, and 436.00 October, and resistance is at 454.00, 464.00, and 466.00 October.

General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower yesterday in range trading. Ivory Coast has forward sold 1.4 million tons of beans and has stopped selling for the next crop on fears of less supplies. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above below to rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 5.698 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2330, and 2310 September, with resistance at 2460, 2500, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1610, 1580, and 1570 September, with resistance at 1660, 1670, and 1690 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322