About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  All three markets were lower on Friday, but higher for the week as the weather market continued.  Minneapolis gave the most ground on Friday and remains locked in a trading range for the last few weeks.  It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks.  The North Dakota Wheat Tour estimated yields at just 29.1 bushels per acre, from 43.6 bushels per acre average.  The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan.  Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia.  It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay.  US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather.  World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.

 

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Corn:  Corn was lower on Friday as bad US weather continued and went against weaker demand.  Futures were about unchanged for the week.  The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields.  It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east.  It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east.  Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports.  The weekly export sales reports have been less than expected and have created reasons to sell futures.  Oats were lower on weakness in the other markets.  Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry.  Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.

 

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products were lower on Friday.  Soybeans closed the week a little higher while the products were narrowly mixed.  US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now.  Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered.  The weather forecasts changed to drier and cooler .  Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but western Iowa got very beneficial rain over the weekend.  Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the western Midwest and northern Great Plains but cooler than normal in the eastern Midwest, and it should generally be dry.  The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.

 

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

Rice:  Rice closed unchanged on Friday but higher for the week as traders anticipate weaker production as the harvest gets started in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Both areas have been wet and cloudy and average at best yields are expected.  The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions.  Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi.  The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date.  Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain.  Rice areas have generally been wet.  Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending sideways to lower.

 

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil futures were mixed on Friday, but higher for the week on ideas of tight supplies.  Traders prepared on Friday for bad demand news today from the private sources as the export pace is expected to be less in July.  Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher.  Canola closed lower on what was called speculative selling.  Trends are still up longer term but are down short term and weather concerns continue.  It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies.  Some showers in the last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.

 

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

 

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

Cotton:  Futures were a little lower again on Friday and a little lower for the week on weaker than expected export sales.  Ideas of strong demand continue but the weekly reports have shown more like an average demand.  The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns.  Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future.  Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.  It has been very hot in parts of Texas with some dry pockets noted, and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months.  The Texas Panhandle is expecting beneficial showers this week.

 

Weekly US Cotton Futures

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed lower again on Friday and were lower for the week as Florida weather remains non threatening.  Reports of freezing temperatures in Sao Paulo Brazil that could affect the production of Oranges in the state continue but are now part of the market.  Freezing temperatures have been reported in the state in the last couple of weeks.  Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops.  The Atlantic is quiet and nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet.  A big storm could threaten trees and fruit.  Brazil is reported to be cold and dry.  Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.  Demand news has been bad with Nielsen reporting sales at $30.2 million and a third month of declining sales.  The sales are now the weakest since the Pandemic began.

 

Weekly FCOJ Futures

Coffee:  New York and London closed sharply lower on Friday and for the week and collapsed as the freeze threat in Brazil passed with some additional damage.  Temperatures are now expected to trend a little warmer.  The market had traded sharply higher early this week on freezing temperatures in Brazil growing areas early last week and forecasts for more late last week.  It is not yet known how extensive the damage was but ideas are that a significant part of the cop got hurt, but the cooperative Minasul has estimated losses of up to a quarter of its crop.  It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees.  London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering amid drier than normal weather conditions.  Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America.  Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country.  Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.

 

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

Sugar:  New York and London were sharply lower on Friday and lower for the week as freezing temperatures hit Sugarcane areas of Brazil and caused minimal additional damage to crops.  Ideas are that the damage from previous freezes should show un in processing data for August.  Reports of damaged cane in Brazil and pictures of the damage have been tweeted in the last couple of weeks.  The pictures are showing the potential for significant damage to crops.  Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with stronger world petroleum prices.  London has been the weaker market on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less.  There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop.  Thailand is expecting improved production.  Sugar demand is said to be weak.  Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.

 

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York and London closed higher on Friday but near unchanged for the week.  Futures remain in a trading range on the daily and weekly charts.  It appears that the supply fundamentals are now part of the price structure for Cocoa.  The European grind data was released last week and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times.  Asian data was released a week ago and also showed increased demand, although not as much of an increase than showed for Europe.  Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now.  The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.

 

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322