About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug 05, 2021 42 Jul 28, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mixed to mostly lower as the weather market continued and this time featured dry weather in southern Russia. Trends in Winter Wheat markets are still up. Only HRW had any higher closes yesterday as SRW and Minneapolis closed lower. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced and are now well below the latest USDA estimates. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks and Minneapolis remains in a trading range. The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather but a few showers are possible in the region this week. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below
normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 763 and 815 September. Support is at 711, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 749, 767, and 774 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 646 September. Support is at 678, 658, and 649 September, with resistance at 724, 745, and 751 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 900, 888, and 879 September, and resistance is at 948, 9454, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again as the harvest is underway. Traders anticipate weaker production. The harvest gets started in Texas and southern Louisiana but the harvest is coming now. Both areas have been wet and cloudy and average at best yields are expected. Initial reports from Texas suggest that average yields are very optimistic. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending sideways to lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1308, 1304, and 1269 September. Support is at 1330, 1319, and 1310 September, with resistance at 1348, 1360, and 1368 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 4
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.13 9.63 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.12 9.67 0.00
Brokens 9.60 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday o the weakness seen in Soybeans and most Wheat markets as demand ideas improved. The shipments seen this week were strong, but the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. Some think that export demand should return to the market soon.. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line or record yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were lower with the other ag markets and despite the uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed.. Support is at 545, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 572 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 424 September. Support is at 440, 436, and 424 September, and resistance is at 450, 464, and 470 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower primarily in response to the increased crop ratings released by USDA on Monday night. The market had expected a slight decrease in the good to excellent ratings. Chart trends turned down with the moves in Soybeans yesterday. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but western Iowa got very beneficial rain over the weekend. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the western Midwest and northern Great Plains but cooler than normal in the eastern Midwest, and it should generally be dry. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1287 and 1232 September. Support is at 1313, 1308, and 1296 September, and resistance is at 1337, 1351, and 1358 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 339.00 September, and resistance is at 360.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6200, 6090, and 5940 September, with resistance at 6310, 6390, and 6520 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed a little higher today on price strength in Dalian and Chicago. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed higher yesterday in correction trading. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in the Canadian Prairies and northern US Great Plains. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. Some showers in the last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 816.00 and 739.00 November. Support is at 823.00, 807.00, and 796.00 November, with resistance at 866.00, 882.00, and 906.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3965 October. Support is at 4090, 4000, and 3960 October, with resistance at 4300, 4370, and 4480 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 917.20 75.00 Nov. 2021 dn 36.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 905.10 50.00 Nov. 2021 up 12.90
Basis: Vancouver 935.10 80.00 Nov. 2021 up 12.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1157.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1137.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1035.00 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1160.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1140.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1037.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1100.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1040.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,630.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 314.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.219)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 224,401 lots, or 13.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,790 5,846 5,749 5,837 5,740 5,794 54 122,620 45,411
Nov-21 5,866 5,876 5,770 5,860 5,763 5,830 67 55,101 104,015
Jan-22 5,828 5,887 5,803 5,877 5,798 5,840 42 24,962 29,666
Mar-22 5,817 5,884 5,801 5,873 5,796 5,843 47 13,789 15,105
May-22 5,892 5,909 5,841 5,899 5,847 5,880 33 486 1,348
Jul-22 5,856 5,902 5,838 5,898 5,839 5,871 32 7,443 3,491
Corn
Turnover: 649,093 lots, or 16.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,608 2,611 2,586 2,608 2,599 2,598 -1 410,852 441,559
Nov-21 2,589 2,592 2,569 2,582 2,583 2,579 -4 54,222 249,764
Jan-22 2,590 2,596 2,572 2,587 2,590 2,583 -7 123,332 316,217
Mar-22 2,604 2,606 2,581 2,593 2,596 2,591 -5 45,203 57,623
May-22 2,632 2,632 2,613 2,623 2,627 2,622 -5 5,094 18,465
Jul-22 2,650 2,650 2,626 2,632 2,640 2,634 -6 10,390 4,171
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,419,723 lots, or 50.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 3,625 3,625 3,625 0 0 597
Sep-21 3,600 3,617 3,570 3,588 3,619 3,587 -32 695,429 755,362
Nov-21 3,627 3,633 3,585 3,596 3,638 3,602 -36 60,182 76,113
Dec-21 3,586 3,599 3,549 3,555 3,608 3,566 -42 36,766 61,254
Jan-22 3,560 3,568 3,524 3,535 3,575 3,539 -36 489,472 756,463
Mar-22 3,412 3,417 3,375 3,382 3,418 3,392 -26 72,784 291,052
May-22 3,333 3,344 3,305 3,315 3,344 3,319 -25 43,770 144,410
Jul-22 3,343 3,347 3,307 3,323 3,344 3,321 -23 21,320 39,685
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,102,728 lots, or 89.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 9,612 9,612 9,612 0 0 0
Sep-21 8,106 8,456 8,106 8,422 8,126 8,264 138 804,762 328,525
Oct-21 7,914 8,192 7,888 8,166 7,914 7,986 72 26,881 60,323
Nov-21 7,754 8,006 7,714 7,980 7,758 7,818 60 17,135 60,252
Dec-21 7,624 7,864 7,594 7,828 7,632 7,674 42 35,054 63,039
Jan-22 7,492 7,744 7,462 7,708 7,506 7,584 78 185,813 150,404
Feb-22 7,350 7,654 7,350 7,620 7,434 7,480 46 16,510 10,215
Mar-22 7,286 7,584 7,286 7,556 7,366 7,434 68 7,988 7,630
Apr-22 7,212 7,496 7,212 7,474 7,296 7,356 60 6,544 6,046
May-22 7,200 7,416 7,168 7,396 7,226 7,298 72 2,025 6,035
Jun-22 7,136 7,288 7,136 7,270 7,150 7,240 90 4 33
Jul-22 7,188 7,252 7,188 7,252 7,160 7,220 60 12 54
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,056,590 lots, or 90.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 8,998 8,998 8,998 0 0 26
Sep-21 8,582 8,848 8,556 8,820 8,614 8,670 56 746,954 268,584
Nov-21 8,496 8,738 8,470 8,716 8,540 8,564 24 37,342 78,015
Dec-21 8,460 8,676 8,416 8,656 8,486 8,502 16 25,645 81,013
Jan-22 8,338 8,556 8,320 8,530 8,384 8,414 30 205,490 214,346
Mar-22 8,244 8,410 8,192 8,378 8,250 8,260 10 32,713 38,497
May-22 8,022 8,228 8,002 8,202 8,054 8,090 36 2,997 8,102
Jul-22 7,946 8,164 7,940 8,140 7,998 8,034 36 5,449 5,679
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322