Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were a little higher yesterday on hopes for improved demand and some worries about US production. Ideas of strong demand continue but the weekly reports have shown more like an average demand. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas with some dry pockets noted, and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. The Texas Panhandle is expecting beneficial showers this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated to scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.72 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 97,148 bales, from 97,235 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8890, 8800, and 8590 December, with resistance of 9130, 9180 and 9240 December.
Date 1-Aug 25-Jul 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 82 78 90 90
Cotton Setting Bolls 50 37 52 53
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 7 32 49 11
Cotton Last Week 1 7 31 50 11
Cotton Last Year 3 13 39 38 9
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again yesterday as Florida weather remains non threatening and the cold weather has passed in Brazil. Reports of freezing temperatures in Sao Paulo Brazil that could affect the production of Oranges in the state are now part of the market. Freezing temperatures have been reported in the state in the last couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is quiet and nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition. Demand news has been bad with Nielsen reporting sales at $30.2 million and a third month of declining sales. The sales are now the weakest since the Pandemic began.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 126.00 September. Support is at 128.00, 126.00, and 125.00 September, with resistance at 137.00, 142.00, and 144.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as the freeze threat in Brazil passed with some additional damage. Temperatures are now expected to trend a little warmer. The cooperative Minasul has estimated losses of up to a quarter of its crop. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering amid drier than normal weather conditions. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.176 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 158.25 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 168.00, 152,00, and 147,00 September. Support is at 168.00, 166.00, and 163.00 September, and resistance is at 179.00, 190.00 and 200.00 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1610 September. Support is at 1710, 1670, and 1640 September, and resistance is at 1870, 1920, and 1940 September.
General Comments: New York and London were lower as the temperatures have moderated in Brazil. Ideas are that the damage from previous freezes should show un in processing data for August. Reports of damaged cane in Brazil and pictures of the damage have been tweeted in the last couple of weeks. The pictures are showing the potential for significant damage to crops. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with stronger world petroleum prices. London has been the weaker market on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1750 and 1680 October. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1710 October, and resistance is at 1810, 1830, and 1880 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 436.00, 428.00, and 426.00 October. Support is at 442.00, 440.00, and 436.00 October, and resistance is at 454.00, 464.00, and 466.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday but the market is trying to establish a trading range. It appears that the supply fundamentals are now part of the price structure for Cocoa. The grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.720 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2330, 2250, and 2200 September. Support is at 2310, 2260, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2380, 2410, and 2460 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1600, 1580, and 1560 September. Support is at 1580, 1570, and 1550 September, with resistance at 1640, 1660, and 1670 September.