About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Tuesday, August 03, 2021

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug 04, 2021 94 Jul 28, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug 04, 2021 1 Jun 02, 2021

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 2
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 29, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/29/2021 07/22/2021 07/30/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 599 1,496 49 4,214 465
CORN 1,383,718 1,184,012 726,657 62,807,101 38,085,481
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 24 317
MIXED 0 0 0 48 0
OATS 0 0 200 100 800
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 54,420 90,792 182,479 6,765,712 4,533,076
SOYBEANS 181,193 242,044 557,607 58,223,052 39,384,348
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 387,743 515,214 556,987 3,771,140 4,687,877
Total 2,007,673 2,033,582 2,023,979 131,571,631 86,692,364
————————————————————————-

Crop Progress
Date 1-Aug 25-Jul 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 82 78 90 90
Cotton Setting Bolls 50 37 52 53
Corn Silking 91 78 91 96
Corn Dough 35 18 37 33
Soybeans Blooming 86 76 84 82
Soybreans Setting Pods 52 42 57 52
Sorghum Headed 57 42 53 54
Sorghum Coloring 22 20 23 25
Rice Headed 59 44 57 65
Peanuts Pegging 88 81 89 89
Oats Harvested 45 31 47 42
Winter Wheat Harvested 91 84 84 86
Spring Wheat Harvested 17 3 4 8
Barley Harvested 13 2 4 8

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 7 32 49 11
Cotton Last Week 1 7 31 50 11
Cotton Last Year 3 13 39 38 9

Corn This Week 3 8 27 47 15
Corn Last Week 3 7 26 49 15
Corn Last Year 2 8 21 55 17

Soybeans This Week 3 9 28 48 12
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 30 47 11
Soybeans Last Year 1 5 21 58 15

Spring Wheat This Week 30 34 26 9 1
Spring Wheat Last Week 32 34 25 8 1
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 4 22 62 11

Rice This Week 1 3 24 57 18
Rice Last Week 1 3 23 57 18
Rice Last Year 0 2 22 57 19

Oats This Week 11 21 32 30 6
Oats Last Week 10 21 33 30 6
Oats Last Year 2 8 28 53 9

Barley This Week 22 33 24 17 4
Barley Last Week 19 32 27 18 4
Barley Last Year 1 2 18 62 19

Sorghum This Week 3 7 28 54 8
Sorghum Last Week 2 6 26 55 11
Sorghum Last Year 2 8 35 42 13

Peanuts This Week 1 3 23 63 10
Peanuts Last Week 1 3 21 63 10
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 21 61 12

Pasture and Range This Week 23 19 26 24 8
Pasture and Range Last Week 23 19 24 25 9
Pasture and Range Last Year 10 20 34 32 4

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets were higher as the weather market continued and this time featured dry weather in southern Russia. Crop size estimates there have been reduced and are now well below the latest USDA estimates. Minneapolis gave the most ground on Friday and remains locked in a trading range for the last few weeks. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather but a few showers are possible in the region this week. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below
normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 763 and 815 September. Support is at 711, 695, and 690 September, with resistance at 749, 767, and 774 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 646 September. Support is at 678, 658, and 649 September, with resistance at 706, 724, and 774 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 900, 888, and 879 September, and resistance is at 948, 9454, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower as traders anticipate weaker production. The harvest gets started in Texas and southern Louisiana but the harvest is coming now. Both areas have been wet and cloudy and average at best yields are expected. Initial reports from Texas suggest that average yields are very optimistic. The harvest pace is expected to be slow due to ongoing showers in both regions. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas and Mississippi. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending sideways to lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1349, 1344, and 1334 September, with resistance at 1368, 1389, and 1399 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday as demand ideas improved and the export inspections report showed a large volume of shipments. The shipments were over 1.0 million tons and caught the market by surprise as the sales reports had indicated weak demand for right now. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were a little higher on the uncertain weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed.. Support is at 545, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 559, 564, and 568 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 424 September. Support is at 440, 436, and 424 September, and resistance is at 450, 464, and 470 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher and the products were mixed, with Soybean Oil lower along with weakness in Palm Oil futures. Soybean Meal was higher on spreads against Soybean Oil and the strength in Soybeans. US weather is still a feature in the market as it remains hot in the west and is dry in just about all areas now. Eastern Midwest areas should be cooler. Soybeans conditions in central production area started the year too wet and have suffered. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but western Iowa got very beneficial rain over the weekend. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the western Midwest and northern Great Plains but cooler than normal in the eastern Midwest, and it should generally be dry. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1342, 1337, and 1316 September, and resistance is at 1390, 1392, and 1431 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 339.00 September, and resistance is at 360.00, 365.00, and 371.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6310, 6200, and 6090 September, with resistance at 6520, 6650, and 6780 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed sharply lower today on less than expected July export volumes quoted by the private sources. Traders prepared on Friday for bad demand news today from the private sources as the export pace is expected to be less in July. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola was closed for a holiday yesterday. Canola closed lower last week on what was called speculative selling caused in part on a stronger Canadian Dollar. The stronger currency hurt demand ideas but production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in the Canadian Prairies and northern US Great Plains. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. Some showers in the last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 816.00 and 739.00 November. Support is at 834.00, 807.00, and 796.00 November, with resistance at 866.00, 882.00, and 906.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3965 October. Support is at 4090, 4000, and 3960 October, with resistance at 4300, 4370, and 4480 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 953.40 75.00 Nov. 2021 dn 4.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 892.20 50.00 Nov. 2021 dn 36.40
Basis: Vancouver 922.20 80.00 Nov. 2021 dn 36.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1122.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1107.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1002.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 952.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1125.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1110.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1005.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 955.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1075.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1015.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,550.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 310.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.219)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 296,588 lots, or 17.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,724 5,806 5,692 5,801 5,674 5,740 66 161,041 51,265
Nov-21 5,731 5,847 5,710 5,839 5,694 5,763 69 73,089 101,716
Jan-22 5,754 5,860 5,748 5,852 5,729 5,798 69 32,398 32,654
Mar-22 5,794 5,858 5,755 5,854 5,739 5,796 57 18,803 15,738
May-22 5,848 5,891 5,791 5,880 5,787 5,847 60 647 1,225
Jul-22 5,823 5,883 5,799 5,882 5,785 5,839 54 10,610 3,534
Corn
Turnover: 668,809 lots, or 17.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,591 2,610 2,582 2,607 2,572 2,599 27 446,864 460,737
Nov-21 2,572 2,593 2,572 2,592 2,559 2,583 24 46,477 248,527
Jan-22 2,586 2,598 2,582 2,596 2,571 2,590 19 121,969 306,889
Mar-22 2,600 2,605 2,589 2,604 2,578 2,596 18 41,417 56,382
May-22 2,617 2,635 2,617 2,633 2,611 2,627 16 3,273 18,028
Jul-22 2,624 2,650 2,624 2,649 2,625 2,640 15 8,809 4,097
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,225,771 lots, or 43.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 3,625 3,625 3,625 0 0 597
Sep-21 3,643 3,646 3,591 3,625 3,610 3,619 9 603,991 790,847
Nov-21 3,647 3,662 3,609 3,641 3,632 3,638 6 52,097 75,519
Dec-21 3,622 3,634 3,581 3,610 3,609 3,608 -1 39,620 55,918
Jan-22 3,583 3,600 3,551 3,579 3,567 3,575 8 402,330 737,971
Mar-22 3,423 3,438 3,395 3,427 3,410 3,418 8 67,856 286,711
May-22 3,344 3,365 3,324 3,359 3,331 3,344 13 35,108 147,928
Jul-22 3,331 3,367 3,323 3,367 3,332 3,344 12 24,769 32,751
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,178,825 lots, or 9.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 9,612 9,612 9,612 0 0 0
Sep-21 8,122 8,262 8,016 8,188 8,346 8,126 -220 901,951 315,872
Oct-21 7,920 8,026 7,838 7,958 8,078 7,914 -164 25,896 56,594
Nov-21 7,822 7,850 7,680 7,786 7,910 7,758 -152 19,967 56,794
Dec-21 7,638 7,716 7,544 7,656 7,842 7,632 -210 20,855 62,950
Jan-22 7,490 7,616 7,410 7,538 7,674 7,506 -168 183,986 148,542
Feb-22 7,374 7,534 7,318 7,458 7,578 7,434 -144 12,484 9,777
Mar-22 7,302 7,478 7,248 7,398 7,508 7,366 -142 6,134 6,943
Apr-22 7,248 7,382 7,188 7,328 7,430 7,296 -134 5,675 5,440
May-22 7,152 7,300 7,120 7,252 7,294 7,226 -68 1,845 5,945
Jun-22 7,084 7,198 7,084 7,180 7,198 7,150 -48 19 33
Jul-22 7,086 7,174 7,086 7,158 7,116 7,160 44 13 64
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,011,425 lots, or 86.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 8,998 8,998 8,998 0 0 26
Sep-21 8,588 8,682 8,526 8,646 8,756 8,614 -142 715,802 283,654
Nov-21 8,564 8,594 8,474 8,548 8,682 8,540 -142 43,999 71,095
Dec-21 8,508 8,540 8,412 8,490 8,626 8,486 -140 23,485 83,132
Jan-22 8,392 8,456 8,310 8,396 8,512 8,384 -128 189,085 211,319
Mar-22 8,298 8,318 8,180 8,264 8,384 8,250 -134 32,646 32,578
May-22 8,052 8,116 8,000 8,070 8,160 8,054 -106 2,466 7,570
Jul-22 7,972 8,064 7,950 8,008 8,084 7,998 -86 3,942 5,141
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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