About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower again on weaker than expected export sales. Ideas of strong demand continue but the weekly reports have shown more like an average demand. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. It has been very hot in parts of Texas with some dry pockets noted, and the Delta and Southeast have had drenching rains at various times in the last couple of months. Texas has also seen a lot of rain but now could turn hot and dry again.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.80 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,268 bales, from 100,268 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9130, 9250 and 9460 December. Support is at 8990, 8890, and 8800 December, with resistance of 9130, 9180 and 9240 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 29
As of Jul 23. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 55,238 55,253 -15 21,254 22,047 -793
Mar 22 28,571 27,708 863 6,215 6,114 101
May 22 12,741 12,772 -31 1,277 1,277 0
Jul 22 30,979 29,775 1,204 4,302 4,266 36
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 7,502 8,324 -822 8,642 9,576 -934
Mar 23 1,236 1,412 -176 176 187 -11
May 23 71 18 53 0 0 0
Jul 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 75 40 35 797 659 138
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 136,431 135,320 1,111 43,103 44,566 -1,463
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 21 0 0 0
Oct 21 337 332 5
Dec 21 159,062 158,786 276
Mar 22 46,850 43,881 2,969
May 22 8,395 8,401 -6
Jul 22 11,661 11,249 412
Oct 22 3 3 0
Dec 22 15,352 15,343 9
Mar 23 352 309 43
May 23 26 26 0
Jul 23 3 3 0
Dec 23 3 3 0
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 242,044 238,336 3,708

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again as Florida weather remains non threatening. Reports of freezing temperatures in Sao Paulo Brazil that could affect the production of Oranges in the state continue but are now part of the market Forecasts for more cold weather late this week are being pulled back. It will be cold, but probably not cold enough to damage crops. Freezing temperatures have been reported in the state in the last couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is quiet and nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be cold and dry. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 142.00 September. Support is at 134.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 144.00, 147.00, and 150.00 September.

DJ Orange Juice Sales Lowest Since 2019 — Market Talk
0938 ET – Sales of orange juice are the lowest since November 2019, before the onset of the pandemic, according to data from Nielsen. For the four weeks ended July 17, orange juice sales totaled 30.2 million gallons, making it the third straight month that orange juice sales have declined. However, prices for OJ have inched up toward an all-time high reached in March, at $7.48 per gallon. FCOJ futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange have been coming off of recent highs, with prices hitting roughly $1.43 per pound — the highest they’ve been since June 2020. The most-active contract is down 0.7% today, at $1.356 per pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on forecasts for less severe cold later this week in Brazil. The market had traded sharply higher early this week on freezing temperatures in Brazil growing areas early last week and forecasts for more later this week. The current freeze forecast is in some doubt as not all forecasters see such a cold outbreak developing even though everyone expects some cold weather again. It is not yet known how extensive the damage was but ideas are that a significant part of the cop got hurt. The forecasts for freezing temperatures later this week mean more damage is possible. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. Showers are coming this week to Southeast Asia and tree condition should be improved even with below normal precipitation. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 2.176 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 170.15 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 193.00, 190.00, and 187.00 September, and resistance is at 200.00, 209.00 and 215.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1860, 1780, and 1750 September, and resistance is at 1920, 1990, and 2020 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower as freezing temperatures were forecast to hit Sugarcane areas of Brazil but the forecasts have now moderated and show less severe cold in the region. Ideas are that the damage from previous freezes should show un in processing data for August. Reports of damaged cane in Brazil and pictures of the damage were tweeted. The pictures are showing the potential for significant damage to crops. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with stronger world petroleum prices. London has been the weaker market on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1880 and 1980 October. Support is at 1810, 1780, and 1750 October, and resistance is at 1880, 1910, and 1940 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 448.00, and 446.00 October, and resistance is at 464.00, 466.00, and 470.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday in part on currency considerations but also on ideas of increasing demand. Hershey’s showed positive consumption data in its quarterly conference call yesterday. It appears that the supply fundamentals are now part of the price structure for Cocoa. The European grind data was released recently and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. Asian data was released a week ago and also showed increased demand, although not as much of an increase than showed for Europe. The North American data also showed increased demand. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.796 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2370, 2310, and 2260 September, with resistance at 2460, 2500, and 2550 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1620, 1580, and 1570 September, with resistance at 1660, 1670, and 1690 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322