About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug 02, 2021 6 Jan 20, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug 02, 2021 1 Apr 28, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday as the weather market continued. It is still forecast to be hot and dry in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. The North Dakota Wheat Tour estimated yields at just 29.1 bushels per acre, from 43.6 bushels per acre average. The market is hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields as are parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 690, 672, and 6466 September, with resistance at 718, 724, and 749 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 658, 649, and 635 September, with resistance at 686, 697, and 700 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 917, 8588, and 870 September, and resistance is at 944, 948, and 954 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again as traders anticipate weaker production as the harvest gets started in Texas and southern Louisiana. Both areas have been wet and cloudy and average at best yields are expected. Ideas of average yields at best are also heard in Arkansas. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1394 and 1398 September. Support is at 1360, 1344, and 1334 September, with resistance at 1389, 1399, and 1408 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher as bad US weather continued and went against weaker demand. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. It is still too dry in many areas of the west and drier weather is expected in the east. It should stay hot in the west and cool in the east. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. The weekly export sales reports have been less than expected and have created reasons to sell futures. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas and those in the northern Great Plains remain too hot and dry. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed.. Support is at 545, 537, and 535 September, and resistance is at 564, 568, and 5972 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 483 September. Support is at 462, 455, and 450 September, and resistance is at 470, 473, and 476 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher as Crude Oil also moved higher. Soybean Meal was a little higher. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often still too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to drier and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain recently. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the western Midwest and northern Great Plains but cooler than normal in the eastern Midwest, and it should generally be dry. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1411, 1391, and 1382 August, and resistance is at 1450, 1480, and 1492 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 355.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 361.00, 371.00, and 375.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed. Support is at 6570, 61440, and 6380 August, with resistance at 6830, 6920, and 7030

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were sharply higher on ideas of tight supplies. The private surveyors showed a little less demand for the current month in reports issued this week. Canola closed lower on what was called speculative selling. Trends are still up longer term but are mixed short term and weather concerns continue. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 856.00, 844.00, and 836.00 November, with resistance at 906.00, 932.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives . Support is at 4290, 4200, and 4140 October, with resistance at 4480, 4720, and 4780 October.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended July 25, 2021. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2581.4 615.5 353.5 167.5 31.7 667.4 244.3 118.2 5154.0
Week Ago 2589.5 621.2 341.0 179.3 32.1 880.0 241.8 112.6 5377.8
Year Ago 2331.5 573.1 225.3 280.7 40.7 1316.8 129.1 75.2 5466.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 252.5 86.7 25.1 20.8 0.9 177.4 17.4 7.7 620.7
Week Ago 322.2 108.5 34.1 24.3 1.3 172.9 18.1 7.9 718.2
To Date 21698.1 6103.1 2732.5 4658.5 436.1 19939.5 3582.0 379.6 63501.7
Year Ago 21949.7 5155.1 2483.3 3818.0 362.2 20113.0 3688.8 362.2 61894.6
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 445.4 133.2 15.6 7.8 0.0 142.9 0.0 6.2 755.3
Week Ago 341.0 107.8 9.8 0.2 1.1 128.0 2.3 4.2 627.3
To Date 22708.2 7203.1 633.3 3445.9 220.7 10942.5 2508.9 1457.3 55383.6
Year Ago 20248.9 6274.1 470.8 2088.4 211.0 10802.8 2490.5 588.8 48439.4
EXPORTS
This Week 279.0 59.5 7.2 14.4 0.5 203.0 1.2 0.0 567.3
Week Ago 262.9 169.1 17.9 1.0 8.8 97.0 0.7 0.0 598.0
To Date 19370.7 6002.5 1713.8 3710.2 309.1 10456.4 2554.8 1323.1 50385.0
Year Ago 17578.5 5157.0 1544.1 2111.5 220.3 9882.9 2502.3 456.3 43411.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 105.4 5.7 17.5 25.6 0.8 191.6 3.7 12.8 382.9
Week Ago 60.3 4.6 11.0 25.1 0.7 189.2 3.9 19.7 333.5
To Date 4016.6 527.1 776.8 1114.9 59.7 10460.7 197.1 877.4 19616.0
Year Ago 3879.4 458.7 781.1 1531.9 54.0 10192.5 231.8 711.8 19496.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 958.00 75.00 Nov. 2021 dn 11.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 928.60 50.00 Nov. 2021 dn 4.60
Basis: Vancouver 958.60 80.00 Nov. 2021 dn 4.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1160.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 1150.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1057.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 992.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1162.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 1152.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1060.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 995.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1110.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1050.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,700.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 313.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.22)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 270,450 lots, or 15.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,688 5,756 5,637 5,678 5,722 5,693 -29 165,455 81,868
Nov-21 5,786 5,796 5,670 5,709 5,754 5,726 -28 56,036 99,222
Jan-22 5,787 5,817 5,705 5,741 5,783 5,756 -27 20,005 36,868
Mar-22 5,778 5,822 5,718 5,750 5,785 5,769 -16 16,200 15,705
May-22 5,847 5,868 5,766 5,799 5,840 5,796 -44 181 1,154
Jul-22 5,804 5,865 5,763 5,789 5,830 5,811 -19 12,573 2,905
Corn
Turnover: 546,465 lots, or 14.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,562 2,575 2,561 2,573 2,563 2,569 6 330,728 501,985
Nov-21 2,555 2,566 2,554 2,559 2,555 2,559 4 48,818 248,353
Jan-22 2,570 2,577 2,563 2,570 2,565 2,570 5 88,202 279,168
Mar-22 2,575 2,584 2,571 2,577 2,574 2,577 3 62,987 57,912
May-22 2,602 2,613 2,599 2,612 2,599 2,604 5 3,265 17,317
Jul-22 2,616 2,629 2,611 2,623 2,612 2,616 4 12,465 3,486
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,235,754 lots, or 44.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 3,642 3,649 3,607 3,639 3,616 3,625 9 282 597
Sep-21 3,632 3,655 3,607 3,652 3,592 3,632 40 658,938 851,649
Nov-21 3,647 3,678 3,630 3,675 3,617 3,654 37 59,994 65,956
Dec-21 3,631 3,655 3,612 3,653 3,605 3,633 28 16,176 36,354
Jan-22 3,590 3,616 3,571 3,612 3,564 3,593 29 395,835 716,598
Mar-22 3,430 3,453 3,411 3,451 3,407 3,429 22 55,436 260,584
May-22 3,353 3,371 3,335 3,369 3,335 3,350 15 38,838 144,219
Jul-22 3,356 3,367 3,333 3,363 3,332 3,346 14 10,255 11,498
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,148,295 lots, or 96.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,968 8,900 -68 1 1
Sep-21 8,550 8,608 8,432 8,604 8,428 8,508 80 940,798 399,751
Oct-21 8,264 8,358 8,198 8,354 8,194 8,262 68 19,145 39,352
Nov-21 8,170 8,220 8,072 8,206 8,080 8,130 50 9,443 42,063
Dec-21 8,010 8,080 7,940 8,060 7,956 8,006 50 14,976 56,706
Jan-22 7,928 7,964 7,842 7,942 7,852 7,904 52 145,449 143,373
Feb-22 7,824 7,888 7,776 7,868 7,792 7,830 38 8,073 7,029
Mar-22 7,844 7,844 7,712 7,782 7,738 7,770 32 4,787 4,425
Apr-22 7,706 7,714 7,500 7,674 7,638 7,656 18 4,852 3,780
May-22 7,576 7,598 7,492 7,576 7,524 7,536 12 768 5,539
Jun-22 7,420 7,420 7,420 7,420 7,392 7,420 28 1 29
Jul-22 7,362 7,362 7,362 7,362 7,398 7,362 -36 2 58
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,037,798 lots, or 92.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,998 8,998 8,998 8,998 8,998 8,998 0 1 26
Sep-21 9,010 9,026 8,886 8,978 8,974 8,958 -16 821,607 337,945
Nov-21 8,916 8,942 8,808 8,890 8,894 8,876 -18 33,957 52,725
Dec-21 8,838 8,884 8,750 8,838 8,838 8,820 -18 11,785 70,890
Jan-22 8,772 8,780 8,644 8,722 8,736 8,710 -26 154,892 201,216
Mar-22 8,590 8,628 8,502 8,598 8,590 8,576 -14 10,057 21,012
May-22 8,384 8,400 8,292 8,354 8,378 8,346 -32 1,787 6,871
Jul-22 8,378 8,378 8,238 8,282 8,310 8,282 -28 3,712 4,186
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322