About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower last week on demand concerns as ideas of strong demand continue. The weekly export sales report was called positive for prices. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.21 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 101,709 bales, from 103,973 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9130, 9250 and 9460 December. Support is at 8880, 8630, and 847==590 December, with resistance of 9060, 9120 and 9180 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 20, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 284,659
: Positions :
: 70,455 11,733 51,648 50,167 204,122 93,178 9,830 265,448 277,333: 19,211 7,326
: Changes from: July 13, 2021 (Change in open interest: 9,517) :
: 5,063 2,074 884 3,859 6,606 -1,728 288 8,078 9,851: 1,439 -334
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.8 4.1 18.1 17.6 71.7 32.7 3.5 93.3 97.4: 6.7 2.6
: Total Traders: 287 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 127 37 80 54 61 45 18 254 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher and made new highs for the move on news of freezing temperatures last week in Sao Paulo Brazil that could have affected the production of Oranges in the state. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is turning more active although nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be cold and dry. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 142.00 September. Support is at 134.00, 130.00, and 128.00 September, with resistance at 139.00, 142.00, and 144.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 20, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,562 :
: Positions :
: 2,915 9,883 1,632 77 2 2,353 377 119 1,767 655 1,478 :
: Changes from: July 13, 2021 :
: -479 708 -84 -12 -9 88 -260 3 -8 -58 188 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.5 72.9 12.0 0.6 0.0 17.4 2.8 0.9 13.0 4.8 10.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 14 13 5 . . 10 6 . 19 6 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed much higher last week on freezing temperatures in Brazil growing areas earlier in the week. The freeze caught traders by surprise as forecasts had been for cold, but not threatening, temperatures in Coffee areas. Freezing temperatures were reported in much of Minas Gerais and Parana and also in Sao Paulo. It is not yet known how extensive the damage was but ideas are that a significant part of the cop got hurt. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. Some of the buying late last week was tied to the big rally in New York as well. Temperatures are now turning warmer in Brazil. There were some losses created by a hot and dry start to the growing season that impacted flowering and initial cherry development and a little Coffee was lost during the freeze event several weeks ago. Increasing showers are coming this week to Southeast Asia and tree condition should be improved. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.177 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 149.00 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 168.00 September, and resistance is at 195.00, 198.00 and 201.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1710 September, and resistance is at 1920, 1950, and 1990 September .

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 20, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 364,754
: Positions :
: 52,289 19,156 106,538 102,989 212,331 91,055 19,616 352,871 357,641: 11,883 7,113
: Changes from: July 13, 2021 (Change in open interest: 28,238) :
: 5,855 -6,440 20,212 2,839 13,007 78 1,540 28,983 28,319: -745 -81
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 5.3 29.2 28.2 58.2 25.0 5.4 96.7 98.0: 3.3 2.0
: Total Traders: 452 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 178 62 138 122 130 46 23 398 315:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/20/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
145,298 45,314 83,344 9,409 11,019 4,499
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 31.2% 57.4% 6.5% 7.6% 3.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
159 40 39 11 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
33,857 2,171 12,475 8,223 2,717 25,568
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.3% 1.5% 8.6% 5.7% 1.9% 17.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 7 16 22 10 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,953 3,505
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.1% 2.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed on a strong note on Friday and were higher for the week as freezing temperatures hit Sugarcane areas of Brazil and probably caused some significant damage. Reports of damaged cane in Brazil and pictures of the damage were tweeted, but there has not been any real information sent out since the event. The pictures are showing the potential for significant damage to crops. Brazil temperatures are now moderating. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue even with weaker world petroleum prices. London has been the weaker market on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. The Indians are selling with or without a subsidy from the government. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1710 October, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1910 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 451.00, 446.00, and 442.00 October, and resistance is at 460.00, 466.00, and 470.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 20, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,075,686
: Positions :
: 188,406 37,247 211,422 303,719 711,923 284,314 74,028 987,861 1,034,620: 87,825 41,066
: Changes from: July 13, 2021 (Change in open interest: -1,655) :
: -3,432 -4,066 -611 1,601 -255 -3,960 2,260 -6,402 -2,672: 4,747 1,017
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.5 3.5 19.7 28.2 66.2 26.4 6.9 91.8 96.2: 8.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 24 66 79 77 40 19 227 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/20/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
73,737 35,926 56,734 8,484 2,660 3,335
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 48.7% 76.9% 11.5% 3.6% 4.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
101 33 34 11 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,069 2,133 3,581 1,793 88 1,972
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.1% 2.9% 4.9% 2.4% 0.1% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 6 9 8 3 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,577 3,234
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.2% 4.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday but near unchanged for the week. Futures remain in a trading range on the daily and weekly charts. It appears that the supply fundamentals are now part of the price structure for Cocoa. The European grind data was released last week and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. Asian data was released a week ago and also showed increased demand, although not as much of an increase than showed for Europe. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.811 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2260, 2240, and 2210 September, with resistance at 2350, 2370, and 2390 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1570, 1550, and 1510 September, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1670 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 20, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 289,403
: Positions :
: 27,152 56,666 68,565 128,426 125,070 51,377 28,304 275,519 278,604: 13,884 10,799
: Changes from: July 13, 2021 (Change in open interest: 13,562) :
: -5,416 8,492 3,252 13,458 -2,467 583 2,808 11,877 12,085: 1,684 1,477
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 19.6 23.7 44.4 43.2 17.8 9.8 95.2 96.3: 4.8 3.7
: Total Traders: 235 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 67 65 55 37 33 17 190 158:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/20/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
288,310 197,937 182,732 33,453 19,332 9,721
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 68.7% 63.4% 11.6% 6.7% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
129 46 36 12 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,632 37,865 10,165 5,007 863 23,790
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.3% 13.1% 3.5% 1.7% 0.3% 8.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
8 29 6 14 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,605 3,842
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 1.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322