Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were a little higher on demand concerns as ideas of strong demand continue. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.98 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 103,005 bales, from 107,517 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 40,000 bales this year and 251,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,400 bales this year and 900 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8630, 8590, and 8470 December, with resistance of 9000, 9060 and 9120 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday in correction trading, but remains generally strong on news of freezing temperatures in Sao Paulo Brazil that could have affected the production of Oranges in the state. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is turning more active although nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be cold and dry. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northeastern Mexico areas are too dry, but the rest of northern and western Mexico are rated in good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 135.00 and 142.00 September. Support is at 128.00, 126.00, and 125.00 September, with resistance at 134.00, 135.00, and 138.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on freezing temperatures in Brazil growing areas last night. Freezing temperatures were reported in much of Minas Gerais and Parana and also in Sao Paulo. It is not yet known how extensive the damage was but ideas are that a significant part of the cop got hurt. It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. Some of the buying yesterday was tied to the big rally in New York as well. Temperatures are now turning warmer in Brazil. There were some losses created by a hot and dry start to the growing season that impacted flowering and initial cherry development and a little Coffee was lost during the freeze event a couple of weeks ago. Increasing showers are coming this week to Southeast Asia and tree condition should be improved. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.187 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 149.00 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 434 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 168.00, 165.00, and 162.00 September, and resistance is at 180.00, 183.00 and 186.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1800 and 1880 September. Support is at 1750, 1710, and 1690 September, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 September.
General Comments: New York and London were higher again after more reports of freezing weather in Brazil. Reports of damaged cane in Brazil from the recent cold snap were heard and pictures of the damage were tweeted. Brazil temperatures are now moderating but the damage has been done. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue even with weaker world petroleum prices. London has been the weaker market on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. The Indians are selling with or without a subsidy from the government. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic. The daily charts show that both markets are holding to recent trading ranges but are pressing against the upper end of those ranges.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1710, 1670, and 1640 October, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1820 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 440.00 October, and resistance is at 452.00, 455.00, and 466.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in consolidation trading. It appears that the supply fundamentals are now part of the price structure for Cocoa. The European grind data was released early last week and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. Asian data was released on Friday and also showed increased demand, although not as much of an increase than showed for Europe. The daily charts show short term sideways to down trends in New York and in London and the fundamentals remain bearish despite the increased demand. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.821 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2200 September. Support is at 2240, 2210, and 2180 September, with resistance at 2310, 2350, and 2370 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1570, 1550, and 110 September, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1670 September.